Transcript.

1 ways to modernize Latin America countries 1. General features and features of the development of Latin American countries 2. Post-war years 3. National-reformism 4. Cuban revolution 5. Chile in GG. 6. Latin America countries in GG.

2 1. General features and features of the development of Latin American countries in the middle of 20 V. Latin American countries differed significantly among themselves in terms of economic and social development of the greatest promotion in industrial development reached: - Argentina - Uruguay - Chile - Brazil - Mexico

3 Here: - the large industry has developed - the numerous working class has grown - capitalist from wearing penetrated the agriculture of Mexico

4 In countries such as Peru, Ecuador had a mining and manufacturing industry a significant role was played by agriculture, where patriarchal remnants were preserved

5 The most backward country Paraguay, Haiti

6 These were agricultural countries with patriarchal relations The majority of the population lived in universities and poverty.

7 According to the prevailing political regimes of the country, the region also shared in groups: - with sustainable constitutional regimes (Mexico, Colombia, Uruguay, Costa Rica)

8 - Another group, where dictatorial regimes dominated for a long time: Paraguay, Haiti, Guatemala

9 There was a large group of states between these poles, in which the change of democratic and authoritarian, civil and military boards to them treated Argentina, Brazil

10 In many countries, contradictions are preserved: - between industrial development and traditional ways that prevailing in landlords - between the oligarchic authorities of large landowners and entrepreneurs and the powerful position of the population - between the republican, constitutional construction and policies of the sole rulers

11 External problems: - The dependence of the economy from foreign monopolies - military-political pressure - direct intervention of the United States

12 In this situation, the role of leading political force often took over the army here used revolutions and reforms to solve problems

13 2. Post-war years The Second World War aroused new processes in Latin American countries in the economy in the economy. This was expressed in "import-changing industrialization" (the development of own production) in a number of countries have emerged new industries: metallurgical, refinery, chemical

14 In the course of industrialization, the position of the state in the economy in Mexico and Brazil was intensified by the state of the state accounted for about a third of all investments in the economy. In the first post-war years, a democratization of political life was carried out by an international situation.

15 in g. In a number of countries, dictatorial regimes were minimized, democratic freedoms were restored, but already in GG. There was a shift to the right in Peru, Venezuela, Panama, Bolivia, in Cuba, military dictatorial regimes were installed in Paraguay

16 After overthrowing in 1944, the government headed by the liberal figure of H.H.H.Avalo, he received about 85% of the votes of voters who came to power to power the government fell on the path of progressive transformations Guatemala:

17 For the first time in the history of Guatemala, it was published: - Labor law limiting the freedom of activity of North American firms - a law on social security (workers received the right to unite into trade unions and declare strikes)

18 was adopted by the bourgeois-democratic constitution, the agricultural reform, she gave the peasants hope that the land that was owned by foreign companies and local landowners will be transferred to those who treat it however five years have passed after the adoption of the Constitution, and more than 40% of the entire cultivated land in the country belonged to 163 major landlords The rest of the land continued to remain in the hands of the North Americans

19 Juan Arovalo held a line for the development of education programs, health care, road construction, he proclaimed freedom of speech and press, thanks to the labor law, the Communists received control over professional unions, and in 1948 there were a number of major workers' strikes

20 In 1951, the President of Guatemala became a revolutionary Democrat H. Arbensh. It was the first peaceful democratic transition of power in Guatemala, he began to conduct foreign and domestic politics independent of the United States, but in 1954 the power passed into the hands of the military junta

21 3. National-reformism Everything in Latin American countries contributed to the strengthening of patriotic sentiment, one of these concepts nominated Huang Domingo Peron, President of Argentina in GG. Juan Domingo Peron.

22 Economic Program Peron paid more attention to the Argentine Industrialization and Peron's self-determination called upon Argentines to the union to eliminate the dependence and backwardness of the country were nationalized railways and a number of enterprises adopted a five-year plan for the development of the economy. The workers' wage was increased at the same time, the work movement activists of his party were prosecuted. overthrown as a result of a military coup in 1955, which led to the expulsion of Peron to Spain

23 4. Cuban Revolution As a result of the state coup on March 10, 1952, Fulhensio Batista came to power in Cuba, who established a military police dictatorship in the country

24 The coup caused discontent in the environment of progressively tuned young people, the most radical group of which was headed by a young lawyer and a novice politician Fidel Castro.

25 July 26, 1953 A group of rebels, counting on support for the broad masses, headed by Fidel Castro acted at the assault on the reinforced barracks of Moncada Nastyaigo-De Cuba. After a two-hour battle, the rebel detachment was defeated, many revolutionaries were killed, the rest were betrayed by the court Fidel Castro

26 Under the pressure of the public, Batiste had to amnesty the rebels of the Castro brothers emigrated to Mexico, where they did not leave plans for the overthrow of the dictatorship of Batista and began to create an organization for the future revolutionary speech

December 27, 1956 From the yacht "Granma" in the province of Oriente, a detack of rebels from 82 people landed. In addition to landing the landing, revolutionaries assumed to organize a speech and on the cube itself, but it was quickly suppressed; The landing itself almost ended with a catastrophe, since the landing was immediately discovered by government troops and only miraculously escaped full destruction.

28 During the first three months, the position of revolutionaries remained critical, but they managed to conquer the confidence in the inhabitants of the region and organize significant military pressing for local military garrisons

29 significantly helped the rebels that the Government of Batista during this period of time was in stretched relationships with the main economic partner and the military provider of Cuba of that time, the United States. Fulchensio Batista-I- Saldivar

30 Since the summer of 1958, the strategic initiative passed on the side of revolutionaries. January 1, 1959, year-old troops entered Santiago, at the same time in the West, the rebels headed by the city of Santa Clare Batista left, after which the administration left him actually ceased to exist on January 2, the rebel detachments entered Havana on January 6 in the capital, Fidel arrived in the capital Castro Ernesto Che Guevara

31 5. Chile in GG. In September 1970, a candidate from the Public Unity, Socialist Salvador Allend, defeated the Socialist Salvador Allend, defeated the government of Salvador, Communists and other left parties Salvador Aldenda

32 The left forces sought to revolutionary transformations in 1971. Copper and other industries, banks, foreign trade The share of the public sector in industrial production has exceeded 60% Santiago

33 In private enterprises, the expropriation of the Latifundia began on the expropriation of latifunds on the laminations transmitted by the peasants, the cooperatives of the Union of Chile) were created by the landscaps of the Military Government, 1973

34 But as the government's transformations are deepened, more and more resistance to the right of the right to criticize the actions of the government was attracted by the media. Striked strikes of small entrepreneurs, housewives

35 Disagreements existed and among the left forces, some considered the transformation carried out insufficient Communists insisted on the establishment of the dictatorship of workers.

36 S. Laende adhered to moderate positions The opposition heads made a bet on a military coup on September 11, 1973. The army raised the rebellion, at the head of which the commander-in-chief of the ground forces, General A. Pinochet Salvador Aldend

37 The rebels stormed the presidential palace of Allende's associates offered him to leave the Palace president refused and died at the storm of the palace after the coup in Chile established the power of the military junta from December 1974 to March 180. A. Pinochet was as President of Chile, being at the same time the commander-in-chief of the country's armed forces

38 The siege was canceled. The Constitution's effect was dissolved. Parliament was announced outside the law of the Party of People's Unity (in 1977 the activities of any parties are prohibited in general).

39 Trade unions partially dissolved arrests began, torture stadium in Santiago turned into a concentration camp created a secret military police, which became an organ of total surveillance over the population

40 The economic policy of the dictatorship provided for denationalization of most of the fact that under the Government of Allenda passed to the state to the former owners returned land

41 A foreign capital was admitted to the country. Industry was modernized. In addition, the development of export industries (copper, food) was attached great importance.

42 Social consequences of modernization: - the growth of urban population - an increase in unemployment

43 Consolidation of the political foundations of the Pinochetian regime served by the 1980 Constitution According to it, the presidential powers of Pinochet without elections were launched for 8 years of Augustist Pinochet

44 In December 1989, the election defeated the opposition candidate, the head of the Christian-Democratic Party P. Eylvin, after the 16-year-old board of the military junta, the civil government of Patriciio Eilwin came to power by constitutional method

45 Chile Today Executive Power Head of State President, He Head of Government. He is elected by the population for a 4-year term, without the right to re-election. The President has the right to appoint ambassadors and members of the government, to determine the composition of the Supreme and Court of Appeal, to appoint commander of all kinds of the Armed Forces and the Head of the National Police. The president also has the right of legislative initiative and contributes to parliament bills.

46 Legislative Power of the Supreme Legislative Body of the two-bearet National Congress: Senate 38 members elected by the population for a 8-year term (while half of the senators replaces every 4 years); Chamber of deputies of 120 members (2 deputies from 60 constituencies) elected by the population for a 4-year term.

47 6. Latin American countries in GG. In the late 1970s The struggle against dictatorial regimes in the Central America countries was activated in the revolution in Nicaragua

48 The rebel movements occurred in El Salvador and Guatemala, there was a change of military regimes with civilian in South American states of Ecuador (1979), Peru (1980), Bolivia (1982), Argentina (1983), Brazil (1985)

49 historians noted that in the last decade of the 20th century Latin America entered almost without dictatorship

50 Difficulties of Economic Development: - In the years of production there was a decline in production - almost to zero decreased the growth of gross domestic product - increased the outflow of private capital abroad - inflation in 1989 reached 1200%

51 Mass strikes began, the elemental street performances began to conduct reforms on "neoliberal recipes", they provided for the privatization of the part nationalized enterprises nationalized in previous decades was limited to the state intervention in the economy. It was established to establish a tough economy regime.

52 As a result, it was possible to increase GDP growth, to reduce inflation increased the amount of investment due to the United States and other states, creditors went on the write-off of the external debts of the fruits of neoliberal liberalization. The top of Latin American societies took advantage of the preservation of significant economic and social problems.

53 Task: What will you attribute to the main achievements of Latin American countries on the way of modernization in the second half of the 20th century, name the most significant problems that exist in this group of countries at the present stage

Cuban Revolution Completed: Student 11 "A" class of firewood Vsevolod Checked: Arsenyev Lyubov Georgievna State Coup 10 May 10, 1952 Bankruptcy of political suprucks Economic crisis

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Political and cultural development of Latin America in the colonial period (XVI-20s. Xih century) Latin American civilization - the result of interaction
Autochthonian Indian, Ibero American (Spain, Portugal),
Western (colony of immigrants from England, France, Germany, USA) and
African civilizational traditions.
Latin America is a special kind of West. Her originality
Determined by methying - mixing races and peoples.
In colonial Latin America is clearly traced
Symbiosis of Spanish and Indian traditions.
Authoritarian tradition in the history of Latin America manifested itself in
Caudillism
Casicism,
Patennalism
clan
connections
Corporativeism, hard hierarchical division of society.
State
sought
control
Political
and
Economic spheres. The spiritual sphere was controlled by Catholic
church.

The political development of Latin America after the conquest of independence

Since the 20s of the XIX century. Latin American states developed
as
Politically independent.
By the beginning of the twentieth century Latin America realized a historic leap from
primitively general building and from early civilizations of an ancient
to the stage of industrial capitalism.
However, due to gigantic differences in the initial level of development of the old and
New light Latin America joined the world development in
The quality of the peripheral agrarian commodity link.
Belated nature of development, the unresolved of many tasks
preceding
Stages
Provided
Chronic
Unstable
political life that was full
revolutions, civilian
Wars, coup, reversal.
In the conditions of weakness of social classes and civil society, an important
The role in political life was played by the army.

Features of political systems

Latin American states were presidential republics. Them
The constitutions were largely copied from North American and
Western European samples.
In the political systems of Latin American countries traditionally
Dominated
Executive
power,
but
legislature
and
Executive
branches
authorities
were
weak
and
dismissal
("SuperPresident republics").
The form of the legal constitutional state in many countries was
Shirma, behind which the domination of oligarchic clans was hidden,
Higher officers and the Catholic hierarchy.
Parties, as a rule, did not have certain programs and
The organizational structure was a tool in the hands of "strong personalities" in
Fight for power.
Formally independent countries of the region were subordinate subjects.
The United States largely determined their policies: imposed on unequal
Contracts carried out armed intervention.

The rise of the anti-imperialist movement (1950-1970)

The rise of the anti-imperialist movement (19501970)
After the victory of the revolution in Cuba (1959), soon acquired
Socialist orientation, in Latin America sharply
The struggle against the oligarchy and imperialism has intensified.
The Soviet Union had great help Cuba. She became the main thing
Ally of the USSR in the Western Hemisphere.
The victory of the left forces in Chile was important
1970 elections, coming to the authorities of the Levonationalist Military
regimes in 1968 in Peru and Panama, in 1969 in Bolivia, in 1972 in
Ecuador and Honduras,
who carried out serious social
Conversion.
Forcing anti-capitalist transformations, nihylistical
attitude to private capital, a tendency to simplified volitional
decisions undermined the positions of the left forces and largely led them
Strategic defeat.

Authoritarian regimes in Latin America

Answer dominant classes supported by the United States
revolutionary movement, it was the establishment of humanitarian
Military regimes (Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia). Their goal
there was an authoritarian modernization of its countries in the interests of the ruling
Elite in combination with the suppression of the revolutionary movement.
In Central America (Guatemala, Salvador, until 1979 Nicaragua)
Stored traditional oligarchic or clan modes
domination. They wore a supervented character, were one of
Blood.
In the 1980s, dictatorial regimes in most countries of the continent
Scenes from the stage, failed to cope with socio-economic
problems and discontent of the wide layers of the population
Democratic freedoms.
In 1979, a revolution took place in Nicaragua, who overthrew the dictatorship.

Military junta chili

Democratic awakening of Latin America

In the late 80s - 90s G.G. The overwhelming majority of the countries of the region stood on
The path of democratic development. There were either new constitutions, or
There are significant amendments to the basic laws that determine
New rules of the game in democracy. There was a transition from
Super Prerevents
to
more
Balanced
and
moderate
presidential rule.
In Latin America, two transitions coincided - in politics from
authoritarian regimes to democracy, in the economy - from the model
state capitalism, conduits to the open market model
Economy. Neoliberal reforms led to a lifetime drop
Most people, wash up the middle class and kept abandoned
Social polarization.
Neoliberal reforms were accompanied by large-scale corruption and
Mass criminalization of society.
In this atmosphere, confidence has sharply fell shortly democratic
Institutions, the possibility of army intervention in politics has remained
Rolled back to authoritarian regimes.

Left turn

The left turn in Latin America is explained above all
unpopularity of neoliberalism and the rejection of his social
consequences. An important reason for him was the crisis of democracy arising
Background of the decline of traditional parties. The shift is based on the left
The political awakening of the urban and rural stands suffering from
social polarization.
Governments that came to power as a result of the left turn
Heterogeneous and represent a rather wide political spectrum.
The left flank is occupied by Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Ecuador,
Left-centrist positions adhere to
Brazilians,
Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Salvador, Peru.
The difference between radical and moderate left modes is
The fact that radicals carry out active invasion of relationships
Property: Venezuela and Bolivia returned oil and gas under control
states. These regimes have high achievements on social
indicators and at the same time here is a high level of crime and
Corruption.

10. Left turn

11. Louis Inasiu Lula da Silva President of Brazil (2003-2011)

12. Hugo Chavez President Venezuela (1999-2013).

13. Global Economic Crisis and Latin America

Most countries in the region have experienced a crisis better than countries with
developed economy. In Latin America is economic
climb.
The most important social result of economic lifting is height
Lifestyle of wide segments of the population, reduction of the number
Latin Americans living below the poverty line, level decline
Unemployment.
With all positive shifts, poverty and marginalization are still
Widespread in Latin America.
Countries
Latin
America
sequence
Build
Economic potential, their role in global affairs is growing.
The range is expanding and the cooperation between countries is deepened.
Latin America and Russia. Both sides oppose
Hegemonism and strive to create a multilateral world
order.

14. Modern political regimes in Latin America

In modern Latin America presents states
consolidated democracy, emerging non-commodity
democracy and hybrid forms.
In many countries, the problem of manageability is not solved.
Modern institutions coexist with informal
Practices, paternalism and clientism.
Public
situation
in
Most
countries
Region
instability and fraught with new splashes of destabilization and
socio-political crises.
In 2015-2016 The axis of the political life of the continent of the beginning
Shift to the center: there are symptoms that "left turn"
Exhast
Himself.
Rights
become
more
Socially
oriented, and the left become big pragmatists and
Supporters of greater rationality in economic politics.

Especially for the "Prospects" site

Peter Yakovlev

Yakovlev Petr Pavlovich - Doctor of Economics, Director of the Center for Iberian Studies of the Institute of Latin America (ILA) of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Recently, Russia's modernization, its political and socio-economic structures has been prompted to the public attention center. Either the economy will exercise a jerk, or risks to degrade, marking in the "oil and gas swamp". Argentina faced similar challenges, whose experience may be useful for Russia. This country suffered neoliberal beggars, and now, largely on the basis of their denial, implements another modernization project.

The most important problem of developing countries and countries with economies in transition is modernized economic and socio-political structures, the transition to the innovative path of development. Without it, it is impossible to overcome the lag from the advanced powers, to make a fundamental increase in the public level of the population, improve the situation in the international division of labor and strengthen positions in the global economy.

The special significance of modernization acquired in connection with the global crisis that began in 2008. Global financial and economic shocks that engulfed most countries, including Argentina and Russia, demonstrated the exhaustion of various inertial development models based on the simple reproduction of the existing economic potential (in this case - in commodity and agricultural industries).

Argentine modernization policy has been around one and a half centuries. During this time, Buenos Aires tried various models of modernization and has accumulated a varied and controversial experience in making macroeconomic transformations of various focus, ahead of the most developing countries in this regard. Therefore, the study and understanding of the Argentine historical experience in modernization is of interest to us.

Immigration paradise and "World Hitter"

In the twentieth century Argentina met in the role of one of the few countries where millions of immigrants were sent from the dysfunctional regions of the old world. On the shores of La fees, they attracted them a lot: the opportunity to get a job, extensive land, favorable (and varied) climatic conditions, the state policy of encouraging immigration. In a matter of years, there are powerful agricultural complexes on the Argentinean expanses, industrial enterprises arose, thousands of kilometers of railways were built. Argentina has become the main recipient of foreign (primarily English) investments in Latin America - about 1/3 of the total investment. All these were the signs of the first wave of modernization.

The basis of the Argentine prosperity was the production of grain (wheat, corn) and meat (beef). Argentina became the "World Hitter", nominated the leading exporting states of food exporters, which in the years ahead gave it economic significance, recorded its role in the international division of labor, in world trade as a major player in the markets of agricultural goods (Table 1). In that period, Argentina competed especially sharply with Russia in the European grain market. The passage from the famous "Odessa stories" I. Babel is involuntarily remembered: "Don't you know that this year in Argentina such a harvest, what at least went, and we sit with our wheat without soil?" .

Table.1. Export grain leading countries, thousand tons

A source : Mario Rapoport Y Colaboradores. Historia Económica, Política Y Social De La Argentina (1810 – 2000). Buenos.Aires., 2004. P.. 75, 76.

In the Russian Empire, carefully watched with competitors in the distant shores of La fees. Here is a curious fact. In 1911, a book of Russian scientist N.A. was published in St. Petersburg Kryukov "Argentina. Agriculture in Argentina in connection with the overall development of the country. " This is a thunderous 500-page work, which analyzes the problems of the Argentine economy and foreign trade with emphasis on the coverage of the growth of agricultural production and exports, as well as imports of industrial products.

Favorable conjuncture in international markets, which remained up to the global crisis of 1929-1933, brought Argentina to the first number of dynamically developing states. She not only ranked a unique position in Latin America (in 1910, Argentina accounted for 50% of the total GDP of Latin American countries, and already in 1913, the Metro line was opened in Buenos Aires - the first in the region), but also ahead of the volume Many leading powers: Austria, Holland, Italy, Spain, France, Japan, Russia, etc. In the Encyclopedic dictionary "Laruss" for 1919 it was written: "Everything suggests that the Argentine Republic, thanks to its wealth and the size of the territory, enterprise of its population, as well as the level of development of the industry and trade, whose progress should not be noticed, will compete one day with the United States. " Argentina was often called Rolls Royce among states and peoples. "Rich as Argentine," said in Paris in the 20s of the last century.

But many optimistic forecasts were not destined to come true. An obstacle to the future development was the very model of economic growth, the strongest dependence on the production and export of a very limited number of goods (in 1910, 97% of total exports accounted for grain and meat). In the scientific community, the scientific community and the advanced part of the political class clearly understood the urgent need for the diversification of the economy and the development of the National Industry. Back in 1906, Carlos Pellegrini (President of the country in 1890 - 1892 and the founder of the Bank of the Argentine Nation (Ban) - the local analogue of the National Bank) wrote that "the modern state should not be based solely on animal husbandry and grain production. There may be a great country that is not an industrial power. The Argentine Republic should strive to not serve only a huge farm for Europe. "

The process of industrialization of Argentina in its historical retrospect to the present remains the object of scientific and political discussions. On the one hand, in comparison with neighboring Latin American states, the country has achieved significantly more significant results in industrial and scientific and technical terms, the development of economic infrastructure. So, the number of industrial enterprises in the period 1895 - 1914. It has grown more than doubled: from 23 to 49 thousand developed a developed banking system. The length of the railways increased from 732 km in 1870 to 33510 km in 1914. But on the other, all efforts in this direction did not lead to any noticeable reduction in the historically established scientific and technical and technological lag from the advanced industrial powers to which Buenos Aires sought to be equal. Evaluating the state of the industry on the eve of the First World War, the economist Adolfo Dorfman noted that "and in 1913 the Argentine industry still remained at the elementary level, similar to that was observed in 1895, and dragged in towing the agricultural sector."

Modernization of the Argentineian at its first stage created the type of economy, which is customary to call the "model of an exported export of economic growth" (The Export Led Growth Model). The main economic agents were major landowners and foreign companies that have been controlled by key industry and foreign trade. Neither others were interested in the deepening of the process of industrialization, since he inevitably led to the redistribution of resources in favor of the manufacturing industry. As a result, until the mid-1940s, industrialization did not acquire an integral nature, was not accompanied by the priority development of high-tech and capital-intensive industries, as happened in the USA, Japan, Western European countries and in the Soviet Union. In Argentina, there was no machine-tool construction, the automotive and aviation industries were created, which became drivers of economic growth in other countries. The local industry focused on the priority satisfaction of consumer demand, and not to create means of production . This was the main strategic weakness of the Argentine modernization project and the main reason that at the turn of the 1930s he "exhausted" and gave way to the economic storing.

This situation was not able to radically change the policy of import substitution, conducted from the 30s of the last century.

Another weakness of the model was its increased susceptibility to prices in the global markets of agricultural raw materials and food: the conjunctural falls have reached a shock effect on the Argentine economy and generated serious financial problems, forced the country in growing volumes to resort to borrowing abroad. It is not by chance that the external debt has become a kind of business card of Argentina. The example of Buenos Aires showed that one presence of natural wealth is not enough to ensure sustainable growth.

Second wave of modernization

In the mid-40s of the last century, when the agro-export model showed distinct signs of moral and material wear, Argentina was at the point of bifurcation, from which various trajectories of movement were possible. Updated ruling elites led by the National Leader Juan Domingo Peron We began to develop an alternative strategy of economic development and form a new social base of the government course aimed at modernizing the country.

Barely come to power, the new head of state spoke with unprecedented socio-economic statements of frankly nationalist and formulated such goals in the field of economic and political development, which were unthinkable for its predecessors in this post. In particular, under the slogan "Socially fair, politically free and economically sovereign Argentina" as a priority was set to achieve "super-industrialization", to end with the Laissez Faire system (i.e. market capitalism) and put the state in the center of the entire national economy.

HD Peron began to create a huge Argentine system of public sector. The government nationalized the Central Bank created in 1935 as a mixed enterprise, published a telephone connection, the supply of consumers with natural gas and electricity, created the national aviation company Aerolyneas Argentinas and strengthened the previously educated state enterprise of the merchant fleet, together with private capital, established a steel firm Somis, significantly expanded the production activities established in 1941 by the military-industrial holding "Diskison Heneral de Fabrikasison Militares", laid the foundations of the program of creating nuclear power in the country. At the same time, state control of insurance companies was established and bank deposits were nationalized. All contributions passed under control of the Central Bank, which solved, to whom and under what conditions to provide loans. In the hands of the state (or rather, specific officials) turned out to be a powerful lever of influence both on separate companies and on the macroeconomic situation in the country. "I am expressing in other words," wrote in this connection, the economist Roberto Kachanski, "from the point of view of peronyms, a small group of bureaucrats had the right to decide what to produce at what prices in what quantities and what quality."

Peronists gave impetus to the second wave of modernization, which covered the 1940s - 1960s and was associated with dirizhism - the expansion of the economic competencies of the state, intensive growth in a number of industrial production sectors (largely in the logic of import substitution and at the expense of the agricultural sector), strengthening the positions of science and technology. In socio-politically, it was the period of formation of the modern structure of the Argentine society - the emergence of a massive middle class, an increase in the role of trade unions, creating a system of social security, the emergence of new political parties, the origin of civil society institutions.

At Periramists, modernization touched on mainly the public sector and the relatively narrow circle of private entrepreneurs who were closely related to the authorities. The state more and more actively interfered into the economy, including the issues of regulation, distribution and pricing, which led to an increase in corruption, inflation raising, the emergence of a black market. Over time, the model lost its initial dynamics and attractiveness and caused rejection from a significant part of the population, which facilitated the opposition forces to combat the peronym regime and ultimately led to its overthrow in 1955

An additional impetus for modernization in the framework of import-substituting industrialization was attached at the turn of the 1950-1960s by the Government Arturo Frondisiwhich implemented a number of strategically significant industrial and infrastructure projects, attracted major foreign industrial investments.

The progressive development of this process was violated by the direct intervention of the army into political life. The military, reflecting the interests of the conservative forces (primarily an agrarian oligarchy), usurp the power, hit democratic institutions, strengthened the split of the Company, strengthened the dependence of economic development from external factors. Modernization was stopped. If in the 1940-1960s, Argentina was able, although not the most effective way, to carry out industrialization, then in the 1970-190s the National Industry did not make a decisive step forward. The country joined the protracted period of political turbulence and financial and economic shocks. The signs of that time were regular military coups, political repression, the flourishing of corruption. Corruption acquired institutional character That is, has become a system of interaction between business and citizens with the state. As a result, the Argentinean state eaten himself.

During these years, Argentina was shocked by the financial crises with enviable regularity. Although one of the governments (nor civil or military) was not solved on the conduct of deep structural reforms that could give the country's currency and financial systems of long-term sustainability and stability. In the event of budgetary difficulties, the authorities tried to replace the structural transformations with the measures of a monetarist nature, and this was not enough.

The economical system existed in the mid-1970s and existed to the early 1990s was characterized by the preservation of the hypertrophized public sector and in general the autarchkiy economic regime, with some unsuccessful attempts to market or pseudogo reforms. In foreign trade, this model relied on the export of a narrow group of agricultural goods and state control over the import, which allowed the local industry to exist in greenhouse conditions. In the context of the globalization process, the Argentine economy demonstrated its ineffectiveness, and the country, having lost the modernization impulse, was increasingly lagging behind the advanced states and moved to the side of the global economic system.

"Nonoliberal Overdose"

The attempt of structural reforms was undertaken in 1989-1999. under government Carlos Menel Neoloberal team led by Domingo Cavallo (He acquired truly world fame and became the name of the nominal) within the framework of the new, third modernization wave. The economy was in the hands of monetarists who did not meet any organized and influential opposition, which seriously facilitated the implementation of the program of rigid market reforms.

The legal basis of neoliberal modernization has become a series of laws and decrees, in the amount of the reform of the Argentinean state and those who have established new rules in the economy. As with several decades earlier, the initiator of the change was the state power - the government of peronyms ("Memmists"), who were now in the position of market reformers. The role of major modernization agents played transnational corporations and banks, as well as large local business structures associated with them. The focus of Buenos Aires to attract foreign capital, including purely speculative, made the country especially vulnerable. In terms of financial liberalization, Argentina has become one of the most open economies in the world.

The government of K. Menema conducted a forced dismantling of the public sector and opened the national economy of international competition, to which local entrepreneurs were not ready. Reforms were aimed at narrowing the direct social responsibility of the state, which contradicted the Argentine tradition, which pretended during the first reign of perionists and in the main features preserved until the beginning of the 90s of the last century.

At the same time, by the beginning of this century, the Argentine formed, although imperfect, but functioning market institutions. Thanks to neoliberal modernization, the "stripping" of the Argentine Economic Space occurred.

In the 1990s, the economy of the country was largely formed and, moreover, was regulated by external financial flows, including large volumes of so-called "hot money". At the same time, the main form of foreign direct investment was the merger and absorption of local companies in the context of neoliberal reforms. The growing vulnerability of the economy required targeted measures to protect national interests, but the ruling circles continued to immerse the country in the outer debt bog (Fig. 1).

Fig.1. Growth of external debt Argentina (billion dollars)

A source : Ministerio de Economía. -www.mecon.gov.ar

Embedding Argentina in the context of globalization was predominantly passive, since the driving forces of this process were TNK and TNB, persecuting (which is quite natural) own commercial and financial goals. As a result, the strategic objectives of the active positioning of the country in the world economy were not solved, and the real modernization needs and the interests of the national economy were not always taken into account. An example of this is a presentation of the position of imports in the domestic market (including in sectors with import-substitution capabilities), which occurred in the conditions of unjustified strengthening of the local currency - peso and the actual absence of a diversified import tariff.

The Argentine experience of market reforms once again demonstrated that the world of neoliberalism is cruel and deprived of social sublimation. Millions of Argentine fell into his millstone, the country paid for it one of the deepest crises for the entire national history. It is not by chance that the promise to end the corruption and restore social justice was the main cause of the success of the Oppositional Block "Alliance", which won the 1999 elections to the office led by Fernando de la Ruait got a difficult legacy. I had to make decisions within the framework of the neoliberal paradigm, which has already exhausted itself and needed an urgent replacement. But there was no replacement. The authorities preferred not to develop a new development strategy, and squeeze everything possible from the monetarist model. This is the root of many mistakes admitted by the Government of F. De La Rua: The decisions made are incomparable with the scope of problems that have arisen by that time.

The regressive tendency of the economic development of Argentina at the turn of the XX-XXI centuries questioned both the effectiveness of the 1990 reforms themselves and the capacity of power. The fall in the economy (Fig. 2) and rapidly growing financial difficulties led to the shameful resignation of the Government of the Alliance and predetermined significant political changes that occurred in 2002-2003.

Fig.2. Dynamics of GDP change (in%)

A source : Dos Siglos de Economía Argentina (1810 -2004).Buenos.Aires., 2005, p. 173.

Summarizing the Argentine experience can be stated that none of the three projects of modernization responded to the fully strategic interests of the nation, although each contained the structural elements. All attempts were either forcibly interrupted, or ended with the crisis, reflecting the internal contradictionability of the next reform model. These modernization projects can be considered in the logic of the so-called partial (partial) upgrade. It represents such a process of change that leads to institutionalization within the same economic system regarding modernized and traditional structures and institutions.

The modernization of the economic structures of Argentina was not unambiguous to the progressive process, but was cyclical. Stages (waves) of modernization were replaced by periods of stagnation and stagnation, which was one of the main causes of technical and technological and wider - the economic lag from industrialized states. Nevertheless, the development of Argentina in the twentieth century (for all "pauses", problems, costs and failures) formed the internal prerequisites for the modern stage of modernization - the transition to diversification and intensification of the economy, innovative transformation of productive forces and production relations.

Modernization XXIcentury

At the beginning of the new millennium on a conceptual basis, which deny neoliberal beggars, another, fourth modernization project began to be implemented in Argentina. He was preceded by a short period, whose main task was to stabilize the macroeconomic situation and determine the gradient of economic development.

The non-traditional way out of the crisis 2001-2002 does not attract attention. Governments Eduardo Dualde. and Nestor Kirschner Made a bid not to international financial institutions (primarily the IMF) and the use of large borrowed funds, but on their own forces, the maximum involving the internal resources of the national economy and the potential of the local business community. Official Buenos Aires created the necessary macroeconomic conditions and oriented entrepreneurs to the activation of industrial and foreign trade activities. Such a strategy gave positive results: in a short term, Argentina not only recovered after a deep economic failure, but also began to enter the higher frontier of socio-economic and technical and technological development, strengthened its position in global markets.

The current stage of modernization is synthetic, includes individual elements inherent in previous projects. This is the specificity of the modern paradigm of the modernization of national economic structures. Argentine authorities, declaratively denying neoliberal model, de facto took advantage of its fruits, seeking to rely on the entire preceding experience, and have learned lessons from the period of market reforms and crisis 2001-2002. This is evident according to the responsible and thoughtful macroeconomic policy, which allowed the high growth rates of GDP, to reduce the debt burden on the economy, ensure a sharp increase in exports and active foreign trade balance, to increase currency reserves, restrain the helix of inflation (Table 2).

Tab. 2. Major macroeconomic indicators (2002-2008)

Indicator
Change GDP (%)
Inflation (%)
(billion dollars)
State debt in% of GDP
(billion dollars)
Import (billion dollars)
Currency reserves (billion dollars)

Compiled by : Indec, Anuario Estadístico; INDEC INFORMA, SEPTIEMBRE 2009

Two cementing ideas are viewed in the modern Argentine Strategy of Modernization: increased state roleand Diversification of the economy.The combination of these two approaches is particularly clearly manifested in the field of world-economic relations of Buenos Aires. The possibilities and advantages of foreign economic activity began to be used to increase national competitiveness and ensure sustainably high rates of economic growth. In the post-crisis period, a new system of state regulation of foreign economic activity began to form. The importance of the state in creating favorable conditions for the world economic expansion of the local business community has increased, a set of measures raising foreign trade competence and stimulating the exit of national producers to foreign markets. An important place was taken by the efforts of the state in the field of information and consulting and organizational support of exporters, as well as direct political and diplomatic lobbying and support of international projects and transactions with the participation of Argentine enterprises. All this contributed enhance the degree of elasticity national economy to external impulses (both positive and negative).

The economy diversification policy has become a priority for Buenos Aires. Diversification does not mean a refusal to develop those sectors, where the country has comparative advantages, it implies an expectation of the extensive segment of non-traditional goods and services, including products of deep processing and high-tech products. Innovative (non-inertial) diversification is especially important, which allows you to qualitatively improve the parameters of country international specialization.

In recent years, Argentina has noticeably advanced for a number of directions. Strengthened the position and expanded the commercial nomenclature of the agro-industrial complex, the export volume of which increased from $ 11.9 billion. In 2002 to $ 35.6 billion. In 2008, the country made an application for the foreseeable future to become one of the warrants of the world Food security. Significantly (70% in 2002-2008) increased production of the manufacturing industry, the range of technologically complex goods, including the products of mechanical engineering and electronics, has expanded. The sectors of the "New Economy" were strengthened, the costs of research and development increased significantly (from 0.9 billion Pesos in 2003 to 4.5 billion in 2009). Tangible successes were achieved in areas such as biotechnology, software, nanotechnology, production of renewable energy sources. In particular, the country has become the fifth producer of biofuels and its largest exporter. For the first time in the history of Argentina, the world markets were published with the goods of the mining industry: copper, gold, silver, lithium. The largest international mining companies are implementing (or will be ready to implement) about 400 investment projects, which turns the country in a significant exporter of a number of sought-after types of mining products.

Economic dynamics and positive trends in the social sphere (the growth of real income of the main part of the population) was accompanied by a gradual change in the hierarchy of economic development factors. Increased the role of internal solvent demand for goods and services. The circle of sources of investment initiative has expanded: the state, local authorities, private Argentine Corporations and Financial Institutions, Individual Investors, Foreign Companies and Banks, including Regional and International, etc. (so-called self-reproducing demandon investment.) The impact of the scientific and technological component, integration processes in Merkosur and wider - in a south-American scale.

In general, the country chooses the "knowledge economy", but it does not refuse support to traditional industries, which adapt to the requirements of today and are filled with the achievements of the "New Economy". Do not leave reality: a genuine breakthrough at an innovative direction is still blocked by insufficient investments In fundamental science and education, as well as many institutional problems. Argentina is in dire need of high-quality education and advanced science by the Stalikult public valuables occupied a priority place in the plans and policies of the authorities. Without it, there will be no tangible move forward in the modernization.

The trial stability of the new modernization model was the anti-crisis policy of Buenos Aires in response to global financial and economic shocks 2008-2009. At the beginning of the crisis, Buenos Aires had a calculation for the so-called December - a decrease in the degree of correlation between the growth rates of the US economy and Latin American countries. This calculation was not justified, since the recession in the United States caused a chain reaction, covering almost all Argentina's trading partners and lowered the demand for its goods. But that's not all. As a result of the global recession, the real sector of the Argentine economy survived the compression of external demand, a reduction in loan, deterioration in the balance of payments, a deflationary helix (reducing consumer demand, the growth of unemployment, etc.), ultimately a drop in growth rates. In other words, the global financial and economic crisis has become a serious challenge for the Argentine Modernization Model, taken to armared after 2002.

The response of the Argentine authorities was the adoption of a large-scale program of anti-crisis measures, which included:

Extension of public investment and increasing government consumption to compensate for the market failures;

Pumping liquidity and assistance to the banking system - in particular, by increasing the credits of the Central Bank and lower the refinancing rate (from 11 to 9.5%);

Providing a state through the ban "soft" loans to small and medium businesses (for 10 years at the rate of 14% per annum, which is significantly lower than market value);

The formation of a line subsidized mortgage lending (loans under 12% per annum for a period of 20 years);

Expansion of consumer lending;

Taking measures to stimulate exports - in particular, a slight decrease in export taxes;

Strengthening control over the import of a number of "sensitive" goods of mass demand in order to protect the interests of local producers;

Increasing the level of average wages and minimum pension (for March 2010, these indicators were, respectively, 800 and $ 245).

Despite the sharp deterioration in the external conjuncture, the Argentine economy as a whole withstood the crisis strikes (Table 3). GDP and industrial production even grew a bit, which distinguished Argentina from most developed countries that demonstrated a fall. A particularly notable revival of business activity was in the second half of 2009. The economy came into motion, "the head of the Argentine Institute for Entrepreneurship Development Gustavo Ripolly said. This view divided the Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, who visited Buenos Aires at the end of October 2009. The Argentine economy, he said, demonstrated obvious signs of a dynamic exit from the crisis.

Table.3. Impact of the crisis 2008-2009. on the Argentine economy

Indicators	The change, %
	2007	2008	2009	2010
			+0,9
Collection of grain and oilseeds			-35,4
Industrial production			+0,4
Release of cars			-11,3
Steel production			-24,2
Aluminum production			+4,8
Paper production			+5,9
Printing products			+4,1
Chemical industry			+10,2
Food industry			+7,9
Textile industry			-3,9
Oil industry			-6,7
Building			+2,7
			-20,0
			-32,0
average salary			+17,0

Up until the 1930s. Latin American countries developed mainly as agricultural states. They took out the products of large latifunds who used the labor of low-paid employees, purchased industrial goods.
Problems of development model in Latin America. Starting from the 1930s, especially in the post-war years, most Latin American countries entered the path of modernization, accelerated industrial development. He was facilitated by the circumstances favorable for these countries.
During the Second World War, the demand for agricultural products of Latin American countries has increased. Deleted from the theaters of hostilities, these countries gave a shelter to many emigrants from warring countries, including from the crushed powers of the fascist axis.
It ensured the influx of qualified specialists, the workforce. Latin America was perceived as safe and, thanks to the abundance of natural resources, undeveloped lands, a favorable area for investing capital. Despite frequent coups, replacing military regimes were not solved to affect the interests of foreign capital, especially since its most belonged to US corporations.

The United States has repeatedly resorted to direct military intervention to change the ruling figures in Latin American countries, when their interests were affected. In response to the nationalization of land owned by the largest agricultural company US United Frut, in Guatemala in 1954, a coup was supported by the US military. The new government returned the company its property.

The desire for independent, accelerated development determined the emergence of several models of modernization development of Latin American countries.

Attempts to create a wide block of national-patriotic forces to pursue a balanced policy, at which modernization is combined with raising the standard of living, they were repeatedly taken in Latin America. The first and most successful attempt was undertaken in Argentina Colonel X. Peron, who seized power as a result of a coup in 1943
In support of the Universal Confederation of Labor, X. Pereon in 1946 won the universal election.
Representatives of trade unions that have supported the creation of a new, peronymous, party, entered parliament, to the government.

Social rights were included in the Constitution of Argentina. Paid vacation was introduced, the pension system was created. Railways were redempuned or nationalization, the fifth year of economic development was adopted. However, in 1955, X. Pereon was overthrown as a result of a military coup.
The experience and ideas of perongism, in many ways echoing with the ideas of the corporate state of the Nazi regime B. Mussolini in Italy, retain popularity in Argentina, and in other countries of South America.

The weakness of the regimens using populist, democratic slogans and methods in Latin America explained by many reasons. The votes dependent on the votes and the support of trade unions, they first decide the urgent social problems. To a certain extent it was possible.

In the post-war period, the salary in the industry of Latin American countries increased by 5-7% per year. However, the material resources of the active social policy, which would correspond to the model of developed countries, were extremely limited.
Left, populist governments (in particular, President S. Allend in Chile in 1970-1973) tried to attract additional funds. They increased taxes on entrepreneurs, refused to fully pay interest on external debt, nationalized profitable enterprises, Latifundy, saved on military expenditures. These measures caused irritation of foreign corporations, which belonged to about 40% of the industry of Latin America, caused conflicts with creditors' countries. The pace of technological re-equipment of production has fallen, the competitiveness of products in world markets has decreased.

Governments were not able to meet the growing social demands, to withstand the growth of dissatisfaction of the military, strengthening the strike movement, the activation of the left-handed opposition, resorted to violent actions, up to the creation of rural and urban partisan detachments.

The rigid economic and political pressure from the outside, the growth of internal contradictions that do not find solutions led society to the line of civil war. And then the army, as a rule, with the approval of the ruling circles of the United States, took the situation under its control. The role of the CIA in the organization of military coup in Brazil in 1964 and in Chile in 1973. The coup in Chile, who led to the power of General A. Pinochet, was the most bloody in the post-war history of Latin American countries. S. Allende died during the battles for the presidential palace. The central stadium in the capital of Chile - Santiago was turned into a concentration camp. Thousands of people, activists of the left forces and trade union movement, were executed, about 200 thousand fled from the country.

Cuban revolution and its consequences. A great influence on the situation in Latin America and the US policy has provided a revolution in Cuba. The rebel movement against the dictatorial regime R. Batisti has become massive.

In 1959, after taking the rebels of the capital, Havana Prime Minister and Commander-in-Chief became F. Castro. The launched radical reforms are the nationalization of large land possessions, industry, to a large extent belonging to American companies, prompted the ruling circles of the United States to start the fight against F. Castro. Both the USA, and their allies, including Latin America, broke out trade and economic and diplomatic relations with Cuba. In 1961, an archery of opponents of the F. Castro, trained and armed in the United States landed from American ships on the coast of Cuba. The landing was crushed, but the situation around Cuba continued to remain tense.
After the Caribbean crisis of 1962, the threat of invasion from the territory of the United States in Cuba disappeared. Thanks to the economic support of the USSR and its allies, Cuba partly overcame the difficulties caused by the blockade. Its development largely relied on the aid of the USSR, purchasing Cuban sugar at prices above average. The share of USSR accounted for about 3/4 foreign trade in Cuba. An attempt was made to turn Cuba in the "Showcase of Socialism" in Latin America. It was part of the Soviet policies to support the revolutionary, rebel movements of different countries. With the termination of the "Cold War" and the collapse of the USSR, the economic situation of Cuba has deteriorated sharply. Despite the tough savings measures, foreign debt began to grow, there were interruptions in supplying food.
The failures attempts to overthrow the government of F. Castro in Cuba, concerns that its example will be attractive for other Latin American countries, prompted US to change their policies.

In 1961, President of the United States D. Kennedy proposed the countries of Latin America, the program "Union for Progress", which was allocated 20 billion dollars. This program, adopted by 19 countries, was intended to promote the solution of the urgent socio-economic problems of the continent countries, prevent the appearance of their aspirations to seek help from the USSR.

At the same time, the United States with much greater suspicion than in the past, began to refer to anti-discount, rebel movements, including protruding and under democratic slogans. In the 1980s. The arena of particularly acute internal conflicts with the indirect participation of the United States, the USSR and Cuba became the countries of Central America - Nicaragua and Salvador.
Modernization and dictatorial modes. D. Kennedy's program helped to resolve the problems of modernization, but not to strengthen democracy in Latin America. Modernization was carried out not so many short-lived civilians as military, dictatorial modes. Coming to power, they, as a rule, took a course on the accelerated development of the economy, limited the rights of trade unions, coagulated social programs, froze the salary for most employees. The priority was the concentration of resources on large-scale projects, privileges were created to attract foreign capital. This policy often brought a significant economic effect. So, in the largest country of Latin America - Brazil (population 160 million, man) "Economic Miracle" had to have a military junta in power (1964-1985).

Roads, power plants were built, metallurgy and oil production developed. For the accelerated development of the inland districts of the country, the capital was transferred from the coast of the territory of the territory (from Rio de Janeiro to Brasilia). The rapid development of the natural wealth of the Amazon River basin began, the population of this area has increased from 5 to 12 million people. With the help of foreign corporations, in particular such giants, like Ford, Fiat, Volkswagen, General Motors, the production of cars, airplanes, computers, modern weapons has been established in the country. Brazil became a supplier of machinery and equipment on the world market, its agrarian products began to compete with American. Along with the importation of capital, the country began to invest in less developed countries, in particular Africa.
Thanks to the efforts of military regimes in the field of modernization from the 1960s to the 1980s. The volume of the gross domestic product of Latin America countries increased. Many of them (Brazil, Argentina, Chile) reached the average development indicators. In terms of the production of GNP per capita, they are by the end of the century in one row with the countries of Eastern Europe and the Russian Federation. By the type of social development, Latin American countries approached the developed states of North America and Western Europe. The share of employees in the amateur population ranges from 70% to 80%. At the same time in Brazil from the 1960s to the 1990s. The share of the workforce occupied in agriculture decreased from 52% to 23%, in the industry increased from 18% to 23%, in the service sector - from 30% to 54%. Similar indicators were both most of other Latin American countries.

At the same time, there is a very significant difference between Latin American and developed countries. First, a relatively small layer of persons belonging to the "middle class", and at the same time significant was the property inequality. The ratio between income of 20% of the poorest and 20% of the richest families in 1980-1990. In Brazil, for example, amounted to 1: 32, in Colombia - 1: 15.5, in Chile 1: 18. At the same time, the privileged layer of the population belonged to the average and higher military links, which, in the absence of a tradition of civil control over the armed forces, were a special , relatively independent layer.

All this determined the weakness of the social base of political stability, the lack of mass support of modernization policies conducted by military regimes. Low purchasing power of the population determined the dependence of new industries from the possibility of exporting products, rigid competition reigned in the markets. The population who does not receive the benefits of modernization see this submission of the economy by international, especially American capital, and not the way to solve national problems.
The inner opposition to the regimes of military dictators was used typical of them the weaknesses - corruption of the top of the military, wastefulness in the use of loans and loans, often weathered or directed to ambitious projects of dubious economic feasibility. A negative role was played typical for dictatorial regimes of legal arbitrariness, including in relation to representatives of the national bourgeoisie, small and medium-sized owners. Sooner or later, most military regimes, facing an increase in the inner opposition, including in a military environment, the catastrophic amounts of external debt, was forced to give up power to civil regimes.
Democratization of the 1990s of the Second World War and until the 1990s. Civil regimes in most Latin American countries were short-lived. The exception is Mexico, where after the victory of the revolutionary movement in 1917, democracy was established. However, when preserving the stable domination of one political party, which did not have serious competitors, the compliance of this model of democracy to European standards is doubtful.

In 1980-1990. The development of Latin American countries began a new stage. Dictatorships gave way to democratic, constitutionally selected regimes. After the defeat of Argentina in "War with the United Kingdom (1982), which arose due to a dispute about the belonging to the Falkland Islands, the military regime discredited himself and was forced to transfer the power to the civil government in 1983. In 1985, dictatorial regimes in Brazil and Uruguay also gave way Power of constitutionally chosen governments. In 1989, after 35 years of military dictatorship, General Stressner, Paraguay entered the path of democracy. In 1990, General A. Pinochet was resigned in Chile, there were free elections in the country. With the termination of the Civil War in Nicaragua and Salvador These countries also entered the path of democracy.
The new stage in the development of Latin American countries is characterized primarily by the fact that in the context of the cessary of the Cold War, the United States is less afraid of the growth of the influence of hostile powers in Latin America. More tolerant becomes attributable to social experiments in the area of \u200b\u200bthe world. Cuba's experience, where the production of GNP per capita by the mid-1990s. It turned out almost twice as much as in most Latin American countries, also weakened the influence of socialist ideas.
Thanks to the development of integration processes in the South American continent, the capacity of domestic markets increased raising the standard of living, which creates prerequisites for more stable development. In the late 1980s - early 1990 (This period is called the "lost decade" to solve the problems of modernization) democratic regimes strongly developed the social sphere, which led to a drop in economic growth. But by the mid-1990s. In most countries, the rate of development of the economy has risen again. In 1980-1990. The average annual growth rates in Latin America accounted for only 1.7%, in 1990-1995. They increased to 3.2%.

In the late 1990s. The crisis that struck new industrial countries of Asia affected Latin America. At the same time, since the economy of Latin American states was more developed, the depth of this crisis was smaller for them, he did not spread to the political sphere.

Latin America's economy:

Problems and prospects

V.T. Ryazanov

Modernization processes in the economy of Latin America: Lessons for Russia

Russia and Latin America are separated by thousands of kilometers from each other, are in different hemispheres of the globe, have serious geopolitical and historical differences, nevertheless, with a more attentive analysis, the fact that in the XX and in the coming XXI century. There are many coincident trends and problems in their economic and socio-political development, which causes the feasibility and usefulness of the relevant comparisons. In this regard, we note this circumstance: in comparative analysis of the Russian economy in the context of world development, comparisons with leading European countries traditionally prevail, as well as with the United States. Of course, considering alone only geographical proximity with European countries, which predetermines direct contact and the interaction of national economies, this approach is fully justified and meaningful. However, it does not exclude the possibility of expanding the comparison range.

Common in nature and results of modernization processes. IN

what is the usefulness and possibility of holding a comparative analysis of the socio-economic development of Latin America and Russia?

Victor Timofeevich Ryazanov - Dr. Echon. Sciences, Professor, Head of the Department of Economic Theory of St. Petersburg State University. He graduated from the Economics Faculty of LSU (1972) and graduate school (1978). Since 1968, it works in LDU, from 1972 - at the Economic Faculty. IN

1989-1994 - Dean of the Faculty, since 1995 - Head. Department. Author of more than 140 scientific papers, including 11 monographs (4 individual and 7 collective: head of the author's teams, author, co-author). Monograph "Economic Development of Russia. Reforms and Russian economy in the X1xhhhh. " (SPB., 1998) Published with financial support from the RGHF. Scientific interests: the theory of the economic development of Russia, macroeconomic and institutional problems of the transition economy. He elected a valid member of the Academy of Humanitarian Sciences and Raen. Honored Worker of Higher School of the Russian Federation.

© Т.Т. Ryazanov, 2005.

First of all, it is necessary to note a significant coincidence in the goals and objectives of the socio-economic development, which stood and facing Russian and Latin American states. Currently, the Russian Federation and most countries of Latin America (LA) form a "second echelon" in the global moder-nization process. Russia entered the process of industrial upgrades from the end of the XIX century. It is not by chance that T. Chain called it the "first developing society", which began the era of accelerated industrial modernization in the world. As for LA, she became the first region in the resulting in the XX century. The Third World, who stood on the path of economic modernization. It happened after the global crisis of 1929-1933, when there was a departure from the trade and agricultural development model in the specified region and active industrialization processes began.

We also note that in La there is a number of large countries, which, like Russia, can be considered as an example of the functioning of "large economic spaces" with their specific problems. The "top ten" of the largest countries of the world includes two countries from this region - Brazil and Argentina. (For comparison: on the territory of Brazil almost 15 times more than 15 times, as the largest Western European state, and on the population - 3 times.) And at present, Brazil is quite comparable to the Russian Federation and the scale of the economy. If in the Russian Federation in the territory of 17 million square meters. The KM lives 146 million people and in 2000 GDP produced $ 251 billion, then in Brazil in the territory of 8.5 million square meters. The KM lives 170 million people and this year was created by GDP in 595.5 billion dollars (in both cases - translated on the current exchange rate of national currencies per dollar). In addition, for this indicator, two more Latin American countries were able to beat Russia to Mexico (GDP was 574.5 billion dollars.) And Argentina ($ 285 billion). ° An even more important circumstance is that in LA and in Russia in XX in. worked out, although not fully coinciding, at the same time closely close in their spirit, content and goals, modernization models. This, in particular, is about such important elements as:

Orientation for the forced development of industrialization and urbanization with the simultaneous use of reforms of political and economic institutions;

Support on the ideology of catching development, which was especially characteristic of most LA countries;

The occurrence of a certain cyclicity and sequence in alternating reforms and counterposses. Thus, in La cyclicity referred to the change of variants of populist-etatist and liberal oriented models of economic modernization, as well as democratic and authoritarian regimes of political power. In Russia (USSR), it was associated with the shifters of models of modernization in the conditions of capitalist and socialist development;

Action of general patterns in the transition from import-substituting modernization to export-oriented;

Availability of coincidences in specific details of the socio-economic development of LA and Russia, such as the rate on increasing the rate of accumulation in

GDP, active use of state impact levers on the economy, the high proportion of the public sector, the use of a protectionist management regime, etc.

The use of the model of catching-up industrialization relied on three key ideas. The first of them is associated with the hypothesis of the universality of development. In accordance with it, when recognizing the characteristics of each country and different continents, nevertheless, preference is given to universal laws and even general stages through which all countries pass. As the most characteristic example, this is the concept of W. Rostow about five (then six) stages of economic growth consistently connected during economic modernization.

The second idea contained in the catching development strategy is the interpretation of those end borders to be achieved in the process of its implementation. Formally, they sound like a transition from the "traditional" to the "modern" society. But at the same time, "modern" is defined as a typical Western society, which emerged in the depths of the European civilization, and then spread the world in the form of relevant development models or at least individual values \u200b\u200band goals. The arguments confirming this circumstance are considered primarily the economic and military-political advantages that have countries of the West due to their indigenous qualities that distinguish them from traditional societies. These include: dominance of industrialism in the economy, urbanism as a dominant lifestyle, the predominance of innovations over traditions, representation and democratic system of power, the secular nature of public life, etc.

The third idea forming the meaning frame of catching development is related to the ability to and, moreover, the efficiency of using the mechanism of borrowing and copying already spent economic models in order to achieve positive upgrade results.

Summarizing the said, we can conclude: With this approach, a complex and controversial process of modernization of society and the economy appears as a purely technocreciety with a set of standard techniques to ensure the required shifts in society and the economy.

The coincidences in the use of modernization strategies in the development of our countries seem to be quite naturally manifested in similar results achieved, which can be defined as "semi-success". On the one hand, the countries of LA and Russia, due to their reformational efforts, were able to enter the "zone of development", eliminating the essential gaps with leading economic powers. On the other hand, these countries have not yet been able to get into the leading group of highly developed countries. But the main thing is not even in this. A more significant fact is that so far, they have not formed a sustainable national business model, which has the ability to self-sustaining growth and promising from the point of view of the subsequent strengthening of competitive positions in the global economy. And this is a very serious problem, meaning that countries continue to be in finding a choice of the best socio-economic system.

GDP per capita in Russia (USSR) and in Latin America

(1900-2000)

Countries 1900 1938 1950 1970 1990 2000

Russia / USSR / Russian Federation 1218 2150 2834 5569 11505 7294

Argentina 2756 4072 4987 7302 8534 11254

Brazil 704 1291 1673 3067 6021 6837

Venezuela 821 4144 7424 10827 5438 5468

Colombia 973 1843 2089 3104 5333 5715

Mexico 1157 1380 2085 3774 6946 8291

Peru 817 1757 2263 3807 3341 4320

Chile 1949 3139 3827 5217 5794 8966

World average 1305 1923 2238 3964 5993 6989

Note. In 1900-1970 GDP per capita is designed by A. Maddison at regular prices in the 1990 dollars (Maddison A. Monitoring The World Economy 1820-1992. Paris, 1995). Data for 1990 and 2000. Present GDP per capita in US dollars (1996) on parity of the purchasing power of currencies. The medium-level level is designed to 56 the largest countries of all continents (see: Moodyers V.A. Latin America Today - Russia Tomorrow / / World of Russia. 2002. No. 1. P. 61, 64, 82).

As can be seen from Table, Russia (USSR) and leading countries in the XX century. They developed unevenly in individual periods, but generally quite synchronously. For Russia (USSR), the best period of the results achieved was the period from 1950 to 1970, when the magnitude of the GDP per capita in the country almost doubled and was 1.4 times higher than the Middle Wizard. This has become the highest achievement of the domestic economy. Particularly difficult times for the Russian economy are occurring in the 1990s, when almost two-time GDP drops occurred as a result of the crisis of 1990-1998.

And for the main Latin American countries period 1950-1970. Also turned out to be very successful. During this time, the magnitude of the GDP per capita as a whole for seven these countries increased more than 1.5 times (from 3478 to 5,300 dollars), 1/3 exceeding the medium level. In the 1980s and 1990s, the economy of LA significantly slowed down his movement, also lost the potential for dynamic development. Moreover, in the 1980s, in most countries of this region, the production of GDP per capita occurred, and in some of them the physical volume of GDP fell. His growth is resumed in

1990s. During this period, the increase in its per capita per capita was 22% for seven countries (from 5915 to $ 7264). And on individual countries, it turned out to be uneven. Chile and Argentina developed higher rates.

What are the origins of unresolihood and still non-confidentiality of the modernization process in Russia and Latin America? Do they differ or coincide in countries so geographically distant from each other?

The overall characteristic for the analyzed countries, firstly, is to preserve the instability of socio-economic development, in which they periodically fall into the zones of destructive economic and political upheavals, which violates the integrity of the developing models of the economic and social structure of countries.

Secondly, during the implementation of modernization projects, sharp contradictions and conflicts were preserved and maintained, due to huge breaks in the level and lifestyle of various social sections of society, the growth of social tension in society. This primarily concerns the countries of LA, which throughout the XX century. So have not been able to resolve acute social problems associated with poverty and poverty, unemployment and huge social differentiation. In Russia, the social situation in the 1990s went through the Latin American scenario.

Thirdly, the use of a strategy of catching modernization with its orientation to borrowing someone else's (Western) experience both in Russia and in La countries faced with their sociocultural originality, which, albeit with varying degrees, but in general does not correspond to the West Capitalis Values \u200b\u200bSystem -Tic civilization. Such qualities as communities, collectivism, tendency to traditions, state paternalism, religious conservatism, submitted in Russia by Orthodoxy and Islam, and in the Latin world of Catholicism, created a barrier on the way of entering the management system based on individualistic psychology and capitalist principles. Therefore, attempts to the modernization elites to dismantle them, belonging to them as "relics of the past", met the growing resistance from the majority of society as a reflection of a protective civilization reaction. At the same time, a new contradiction assembly was formed - between the ruling elite seeking to realize the borrowed version of the modernization, and mostly of the Company, which preserves the commitment to historically established sociocultural values.

Fourth, countries that used the strategy of catching development could not fail with a situation in which its fairly natural result becomes hit by the "Dependent Development" mode. Its characteristic feature protrudes the "imitation" nature of the emerging model of the economy, and the most visible external sign - the growth of colossal external debt (and therefore depending on creditors), indicating the birth of the specific and previously theoreticals of many schools not projected in the framework of the capitalist economic system - "Peripheral capitalism." This type of capitalism is characteristic of politically independent countries, in which the relevant principles of management have already developed and managed to advance in economic development, but at the same time they do not have high efficiency and inferior in competitiveness to leading economies, performing a subordinate and serving function in relation to the dominant center. La has become the first large-scale region and the most vivid confirmation of the reality of such a "misunderstanding" capitalism not as a short-term episode in the transition to its developed phase, but as a historically sustainable and stagnant phenomenon in the long term.

In this regard, such a curious fact is interesting. At the end of the XIX century. Russian populists (V.P. Vorontsov, N.F. Danielson) indicated the danger of peripheralization of the economy, and it was a fundamentally new formulation of development. These conclusions they made in disputes about the fate of the first offensive

capitalism in our country. It was then that Russia first encountered the problems of capital lack and an increase in external debt, which aggravated in the conditions of the growing export of domestic capital from the country. In recent decades of the XX century. A peculiar relay from Russian economists picked up their Latin American colleagues, such as R. Trebish, S. Furtado, F. Cardoza and many others who actively develop the concept of dependent and peripheral development in relation to the modern stage. And today, Russian economists should more carefully address the analysis of the works of these economists in order to successfully address the task of the conclusion of the Russian economy from a deadlock of development.

Neoliberal reform wave and its results. The presence of coinciding devils in modernization processes in our country and in La countries arising throughout the 20th century, confirms the incompleteness of the overall entry into the new phase of reform, this time neoliberal, although it does not quite coincide in time in different countries. The continued use of an outdated version of the industrial-catching modernization, even in the conditions of attempts to move from an import-substituting development model with strong state intervention, meant the actual exhaustion of the conversion potential contained in it, and demanded a transition to a new development model. Moreover, the reasons for the general failure in the transition of Latin American countries, as well as the USSR to the export-oriented model of the development of steel to the end of the non-overcome obstacles in ensuring the advanced export of finished and competitive products, which has preserved the policy of import substitution in development or oriented the economy to export raw materials. As for the proposed ecla, the idea of \u200b\u200bthe formation of a "common market" in La, which would allow to create initial prerequisites for favorable in the development of production and export of finished products in its region, then it is not fully implemented in virtue of many reasons. From this side, the emergence of CEV for the Soviet economy laid more acceptable conditions for the implementation of the course on the growing export of finished products, although they were not used with high efficiency for us.

"The formation of a post-industrial economy with a changed technical and technological structure of production and the emergence of new factors and growth incentives, which begins in the last third of the XX century. In developed countries, it could not not increase the decline in the effectiveness of traditional industrial development methods. In addition, the worldwide The economy "Oilshki" and the growing outflow of capital from developing countries further influenced the need for a change in the model of economic modernization. The choice as an neoliberal version reflected the global wave of liberalization of the economy in the late 1970s in developed capitalist countries. Its introduction to the modernization strategy He contributed to both the crisis of an old development model with strong state intervention and the actual lack of new alternative nonoliberalism of ideas and models overcoming the socio-economic label. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the neoliberal model of reform

vania in the Latin American region was implemented earlier than in Russia, and its results can be useful for socio-economic forecasting in our country.

If you evaluate them, it is impossible not to see a number of important economic shifts that occurred in the LA in the last 15-20 years. Thus, economic dynamism has been restored, GDP growth rates in the 1990s in this region increased to 3.3% average per year and 1.5% on average average per capita. During these years, the countries of the region have noticeably advanced in the modernization of the field of finance, informatization and development of telecommunications. It was possible to suspend inflation and physically find out the financial system.

An essential point was the fact that during this period LA managed to move markedly to the export-oriented model of development. This is evidenced by exemption of export growth in the region in the period 1990-2001. more than twice (with an average annual value of 8.9%) in comparison with the growth of GDP. As a result, by 2001, exports from Latin American countries were $ 391.4 billion (in 1990 - 161.4 billion dollars), and the export quota almost doubled, reaching a value of 20.4%. All this made it possible to hope that export production will turn into a "locomotive development". However, this did not happen due to a number of reasons. First, even a large pace during this period was imported (average annual growth was 11.6%), which complicated the situation with the balance of payments of countries.

Secondly, an increase in the influx of foreign investment led to the fact that their share in the investment quota increased to 20-25%. In the conservation of investment activity, the attracted capital provided a rather high rate of accumulation of 22% of GDP (with a share of national savings in 18%), which made it possible to achieve an increase in development rates. However, by the end of the XX century. This activity fades, respectively, the rate of accumulation-na ^ drops to 19% of GDP and more difficult times comes for economics. This means that not any attraction of foreign capital, even in the form of direct investment, has a long-term effect for countries importing it.

Finally, we will pay attention to this principle detail associated with the limitations of the emerging export-oriented model of the economy. The fact is that the development of exports of finished products was based on an active connection to the processes of globalization through the involvement of large TNCs, which created their branches in LA based on cheap labor and other favorable factors. As a result, the created sector of finished products acquired an "enclave" character aimed at servicing world economy (and TNC), but in fact falling out of the national reproduction circuit. And in general, it should be borne in mind that the bid on the "screwdriver" by itself is ineffective. This should be remembered by the current Russian reformers, which seem to make a similar choice, judging by the accepted solutions in the field of automotive industry. In this case, one key difference between the Russian economy should be taken into account from the economy of LA. The fact is that national savings in our country exceed 30 ~ 32% of GDP, i.e. they are almost 2 times higher than in Latino

kansky region. This means that we have a real opportunity in creating (in many cases - recreation) of a full-fledged own sector of finished, high-tech products. In such a situation, state support for "screwdriver" production, especially where there is their own bores, is able to finally destroy national production and its reproductive integrity.

The inconsistency of the achieved results of neoliberal reforms in LA manifested itself in other more traditional zones of their vulnerability and limitations. Even the experience of reforming Chile, which is traditionally exhibited as a country that has achieved exemplary achievements is not so impressive if they are compared with the countries of other rapidly developing regions. So, in the period 1975-1985. The average annual growth rates of Chile GDP were 3.5%, during which economic growth was combined with a decline in the period 1982-183. (For comparison: Economic growth in the PRC in a longer perspective in 1978-2004. Amounted to 9.4% on average annual terms.) At the same time, the external debt of chili increased almost three times (from 6.7 to 19 billion dollars), And economic development was accompanied by a general drop in real wages. It is also characteristic that the liberal economic course in Chile was implemented in the face of holding a more cautious and suspended policy of privatization of state property in comparison with the Russian Federation. In the hands of the state, monitoring strategically important sectors for the country (in particular, for the extraction and processing of copper ore as the main export industry) is preserved. An instructive fact, useful and for us, is that during the economic crisis (1982-1983), the liberal Chilean government was not afraid to go on the revision of the previous privatization stage, nationalizing a number of private enterprises and banks when these enterprises could not provide effective work. It is also fundamentally important and otherwise related to the fact that the more significant results of economic development in Chile were obtained after Pinochet's departure (in 1989), when democracy was restored in the country, and economic growth was finally able to contribute to the reduction in poverty.

In general, in the region, despite a good in comparison with a number of other regions of the world, the growth of the economy in the 1990s, the magnitude of the GDP per capita in La only in 1997 exceeded the level of 1980. Moreover, the end of the century in the region was noted Space and stagnation on the continent as a whole. Many Latin American countries experienced major financial shocks, for example, Mexico - in 1994-1995, Brazil - in 1997-1998, Argentina - in 2001-2002. In other words, neoliberal reforms had only a temporary stimulating effect on economic growth, which means, once again, did not lead to a sustainable self-suicide growth model.

An even more significant circumstance is that the countries of this region in the process of neoliberal reforming failed to fundamentally transform an outdated industrial structure of the economy, which means that to restore and strengthen its competitive position in the world

in the farm. This is only confirmed by the manifestation of a regularity, according to which market mechanisms are not able to provide urgent large structural shifts in the national economy, in any case, in acceptable countries for reformable countries. It is this circumstance that acts as the main obstacle that prevents the sustainable growth model. Therefore, in modern Russia, solving the task of increasing economic dynamics, it is necessary to take into account the dependence of the model of self-sustaining growth from the real conduct of the structural restructuring of the national economy.

It is important to allocate such a fundamental point: the social and economic development of the Latin American region during the period of neoliberal reforms did not lead to the elimination of traditional deficiencies in the implementation of the modernization process, which should include the continued increase in external debt, the remaining high level of poverty and excessive social differentiation, the unsolved unemployment problem .

So, in the 1990s, the external debt increased in Argentina from 61 to $ 145 billion, Brazil - from 123 to 240, Mexico - from 116 to 161, in Chile - from 17 to $ 34 billion. All La by 2003 . Dolhed about 744 billion dollars (in 1995 the debt was $ 625 billion). Social deformation of economic growth manifested itself in the fact that it was accompanied by an increasing, but a reduction in employment. As a result of unemployment in the Latin American region, it was not lowered below 8-9% (in cities), and during periods of deterioration of the economic situation, it could dramatically jump (for example, in Argentina in 2001. Unemployment exceeded 18%).

The situation in the region and the level of poverty has not improved. Even today, in La Over 200 million people should be attributed to the category of poor people, and this is more than 1/3 of the population, and almost half of them live in poverty. And of course, far from a random social result is that during the active conduct of neoliberal reforms, the differentiation of the population in income has even more increased (with the exception of Mexico). Thus, in the largest countries of this region, the average per capita incomes of the richest 10% of the population to the poorest 10% of the population exceed ten times (in Brazil - 86.9 times, Colombia - 47.7 times, chili - 36.6 times). fifteen

The fact that such a social result of neoliberal reform is not accidental, confirms the experience of its Russian use. In modern Russia, no less% of the population was in the zone of social disadvantaged, and even in the conditions of continuing economic growth, it turns out not to a reduction, but conservation and an increase in social differentiation.

"Left turn" in Latin America and the problem of exiting liberal politics. The neoliberal cycle of reform that began earlier in the LA naturally approached his finish. This is evidenced by not only the aggravation of the political struggle in the region, but also an independent economic expertise. In particular, the specialists of the Inter-American

the Development Bank in the report prepared by them in 2002 was made by such a symptomatic conclusion: "refuse reforms or find the path of their modifications is the most acute question facing the region."

After 15-20 years of reforming already in a number of countries in La (in particular, in Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, the Dominican Republic, Bolivia) there was a political reversal and left center forces came to power. It is important to emphasize that such a "left turn" was carried out not through revolutionary coups, but a democratic way as a result of victory in the elections. The democratic conquest of the authorities "new left" occurred under the slogan of nomination of an updated left-ceratic platform as a modern post-gravel alternative.

In general, the modern socio-economic situation in LA can be described as unique. It is about the fact that today in this region directly competes almost the entire possible spectrum of development paradigms - from the economy of a planning and socialist type with a gradual market reform (Cuba) to improve and debug a liberal economic model (Chile). It is characteristic that in this case, the property of multivariates and alternativeness of development is not realized in heterogeneous space, when the originality of the conditions of management gives rise to a multiplicity of paths in the economy. Here, the differing economic models arose with homogeneous civilizational, geographical, economic, mental, etc. conditions, which only reinforces the general conclusion about the presence of multivariates and alternativeness in reforming and development as a universal property.

As for the Russian Federation, the current situation resembles the position of the USSR in the mid-1970s, when a sharp increase in world oil prices smoothed the sharpness of the awareness of the exhaustion of the outdated model of the planned economy and the need for its indigenous update. And currently favorable conjuncture in world markets prevents the ruling elite to soberly assess the results achieved, the possibilities and limits of neoliberal reform. The current government has made his choice, as it seems to be immutable confident in the historical prospects of the liberal economy model for our country, for the sake of achieving which you can sacrifice democracy, which has developed economic traditions, mentality, social well-being. Does not frighten market fundamentalists even extinct of the population for the final victory of liberalism. We emphasize that the lack of critical reflection on the preceding stage of reform is a sign of ideological orthodoxity and limitedness, in which other people's models and recipes are perceived as absolute, not subjected to any doubt.

At the same time, supporters of the liberal course are not tired to prove that he, despite the adverse effects already received in various fields, creates the best conditions for the construction of an effective (competitive) economy. But is it? Changes in LA testifies to the opposite. "The left turn" in this region did not happen by chance, and it clearly shows that in reality there is no so-called "point of non-return", which is now interpreted in the categories of non-alternative

ti liberalism. The example of La testifies that in the Russian Federation neoliberal policies are also historically transient, and the refusal of it is quite possible on a democratic basis. The modern Russian society is already "tired" from liberalism and from his carriers, it has comeroo to its "left turn."

At the same time, the problem of exiting liberalism and the choice of an effective alternative way of modernization is truly complex and not yet to the end. Liberalism is easy to criticize, but much more difficult to go out of it, considering, for example, the effect of the inertia of the economic and political system, the weakness of the economy, etc. Finally, the liberal policy has its own logic and its "truth". In this case, the only rate on populism with its mainly redistribution rhetoric as the simplest protective reaction of most people on the liberal policy is fraught with possible negative disruptions. The historical experience of alternating the waves of liberalism and the populism, through which La was held, testifies to its low-efficiency and should not be repeated in Russia. Therefore, achieving the task of restoring the historically and socio-economically justified level of justice and smoothing social inequality is a kind of program minimum, which is implemented at the first stage of post-gravel development. With all its primaryness and importance, a more promising and complex goal of development should not be underestimated, associated with the provision of sustainable and balanced economic growth with a large-scale structural shift in the national economy. By scale, it corresponds to solving problems from the maximum program and comparable with previously implemented industrialization programs.

However, this does not exhaust the list of key tasks that should be implemented in the post-gram period. In order to turn a new left alternative developmental paradigm to a working and effective strategy as in the already emerging new situation in a number of countries in LA and potentially in the Russian Federation, it is necessary to consider new solutions in various fields. Consider some of the most important new approaches on the example of modern Russia.

First, the left postliberal alternative should become a democratic as the most relevant interests of the social majority. This is due to the fact that the Russian Federation is gradually moving towards the formation of the "inorganic" liberalism, in which the internal unbalanced, non-planned relationship between the persistent deployment of liberalism in the economy in the consistent coagulation of liberal democracy institutions and the deployment of a political system towards bureaucratic authoritarianism with the falling efficiency of public administration , conservation of a high level of social inequality and growing social tensions in society. Such a reversal is a fairly natural result of nonoliberal modernization in the countries of the periphery, in particular more than once he arose in LA, turning power in the conductor of the interests of local oligarchic capital and large transnational capital.

The nomination of the left democratic alternative is important and as a reaction to the past socialist experience, when the chief emphasis in the economy was made to the organizing and socio-paternalistic role of the state. The full-scale return of the state into the economy in the form of mass nationalization and recreation of a strong public sector in the economy, the introduction of state-regulation and planning, restoration of the social functions of the state, etc. - all this leads to the restoration of the model of the state-projecting economy in a new guise, adjusted for higher Multipleness level and market. Theoretically and almost this option is possible, but in general, he has already exhausted its potential in the form of a Soviet model of the economy, which has proven its advantages for the stage of early industrialism. It is necessary to take into account the fact that the active inclusion of a redistribution state mechanism in the already established socio-economic situation in the country inevitably launches the tendency of bureaucratization of management, giving birth to its model of authoritarianism in economics and policies.

Consequently, the modern choice of the country's socio-economic strategy must be sought on the way alternatives both to current liberalism and an old version of the state economy. The left democratic alternative does not just complement liberalism in the economy, it is based on the harmonious use of democratic mechanisms both in politics and in the economy. In this case, the democratic regime of power acts not just as the realization of its representative form, but as a system of democracy, which has such features as legal capacity, responsibility, anti-corruption. As for the deployment of democracy in the economy, it implies the struggle with the ombsithe of the domination of the oligarchy and bureaucracy, the establishment of public control over the distribution and use of the survey product produced in the country, the introduction of public self-government institutions and self-organization, ensuring coherence and balance of economic and social development goals etc.

Secondly, the new left alternative should find an effective way to transform its original qualities into competitive advantages. After all, they are usually born from the national originality of countries. For this, it is necessary not to preserve identity as such, but to strengthen attention to the pragmatic side of its use. The effectiveness of such a strategy developed on its basis will depend on the solution of diverse tasks. This is the formation of "collective will" in society in achieving the conversion objectives and the creation of a "national style" of the Office, which would reflect historical traditions, adapting them to a modern situation. Finally, this is the provision of its recruitment of potentially promising areas for the specialization of production in the country in order to strengthen competitive positions in the international division of labor and so on.

Thirdly, a new left alternative should find its own answer in the implementation of the need for the transition from the traditional model of industrial modernization with the already exhausted developmental potential for the new model, which basive

at the imperatives of post-industrialism on the imperatives, it is currently its development implies a coordinated and advanced development of high-tech production, informatization, science, education and culture. Moreover, the solution of this task is even more connected with the area of \u200b\u200bthe unexplored. After all, the question of how in principle the transition from industrial to the post-industrial economy model is possible, using modernization strategies - theoretically and practically remains open. The world has experienced experience more or less successful examples of industrial modernization, but does it mean that it is applicable to post-industrialism? And are such countries are doomed to securing purely industrial specialization?

This problem is all the more important for the Russian Federation, given the growing role of the export-commodity sector of the economy, which turns into the suppression of industries of finished products. As the experience of the last 10-15 years have shown, the neoliberal strategy is not able to resolve this problem within an acceptable time frame. It converts our country to a long-term conservation of the raw material model and enhancing the dependence of the economy from the action of external factors. In order to actually deploy it towards modern post-industrial trends, Russia must find the path to post-industrialization, corresponding to its conditions and limiters, traditions and opportunities, without ignoring, of course, foreign experience. At the same time, it is advisable to comprehend your own practice of implementing large national economic programs, such as Goerlo, industrialization, post-war recovery. Apparently, and at present, the development of a similar program is justified in relation to the country's post-industrialization, which would subordinate the public and economic activities of all subjects of production to the objectives of its implementation. And one lesson is also important from the domestic experience of solving large national economic problems. It is important that the policy of post-industrialization finally has become with the "human face", i.e. it would not be carried out at the expense of the next robbery of the majority of the country's population. Addressing again to the democratic component of the postliberal alternative, we note that it is also able to create more effective prerequisites for such a solution to the problem.

In conclusion, we note that the difference in economic modernization experience in Latin America shows its proximity to similar processes in Russia. At present, such experience is especially useful in terms of the assessment of the possibility and prospects, advantages and disadvantages in the implementation of the postliberal development paradigm in practice. So, he can contribute to the substantiation of the choice of a more effective strategy of the socio-economic development of Russia in the future.

1 In this regard, we note that the problem of studying similarities in the economic development strategy of Russia and Latin America was devoted to the discussion held in the journal "ME and MO" (see: Russia and Latin America: similar problems of dependent development? / / ME and MO. 2004. № 2, 3.5.

2 Shanin T. Russia AS A "Developing Society". London, 1985.

3K such specific issues, for example, Ya.G. Shemyakin refers the following: 1) continentally planetary scope; 2) the dominacy of space over history and man and, it became

be, "chaos" over the "Logos"; 3) the difficulty of mastering its own internal manifold.

(Shemyakin Ya.G. Europe and Latin America. Interaction of civilizations in the context of world history. M., 2001).

4cm: countries and regions. 2002: World Bank Statistics Directory. M., 2003. P. 50, 170.

5 is there. P. 33, 140.

6 As an example, you can bring Brazil. This country today is actively engaged in space research, produces aviation equipment that has become one of the main articles in exports. Approximately 15% of the global market of civilian aircraft accounts for Brazil. At one time, so many aircraft produced the USSR.

7 In the interpretation of R. Prebisch Peripheral capitalism is an integral part of the world economy system and it is built into its structure "as a dependent, appreciable capitalism, subordinate to the interests of developed countries that exists under the sign of their hegemony and domination of market laws" (Prebish R. Peripheral Capitalism: Is it an alternative? M., 1992. P. 33).

8 Ecla - UN Economic Commission for Latin America, whose executive secretary in 1950-1963 Was R. Prebish.

9 More details about the problems of regional integration in Latin America, see Article S.F. Sutrin in this room.

10 See: Klochekovsky L.L. Latin America at the turn of the century: new trends of economic evolution // Latin America. 2002. No. 12. P. 7.

11 in 1990-2001 Direct foreign investment in Latin America amounted to 446 billion dollars. (ibid.)

13 At the same time declared in December 2001 in Argentina default on external debt in the amount of $ 132 billion. For the present period, the largest sovereign default in world history. The financial crisis arose as a result of the liberal-monetaristic economic course, and its direct reasons were the "currency anchor" policy, a tough binding of cash emissions to the gold wanders, excessive load of the budget for serving external debt (up to 15% of GDP took place for these purposes).

14 See: Romanova Z.I. Latin America in the Global Foreign Trade System // Latin America. 2004. № 4. P. 7.

15 Dreeshymers V.A. Latin America Today - Russia Tomorrow // World of Russia. 2002. No. 1. P. 85, 90.

16 According to the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation, in 2003, 10% of the richest accounted for 29.5% of all income (in 2002 - 29.3%), and a share of 10% of the least secured - 2.1% (in 2002 . \u003d 2.1%). In other words, excess is 14.3 times (in 2002 - 14.1 times). According to other sources, it exceeds 17-18 times or even 30 times.

Such a coincidence is curious: during neoliberal reforming in the Russian Federation, 27 dollar billionaires appeared in the Russian Federation and for this indicator our country came to second place in the world. In turn, in Latin America currently there are 24 billionera (11 - in Mexico, 5 - in Brazil, 3 - in Chile, 2 - in Venezuela and Colombia, 1 - in Argentina) (see: Latin America. 2004 . № 4. p. 10).

17 is there. 2002. No. 12. P. 4.

18 The fact that the demographic crisis has become a critical problem, evidence such facts. Despite the persistent economic growth, the population of the Russian Federation continues to decline. In 2004, it decreased by 1.7 million people (!) And amounted to 145 million by the middle of the XXI century. It can be reduced by a third. Currently, more pressing is not so much doubling of GDP, but the restoration of the population number and its subsequent doubling.

19 Read more: Ryazanov V.T. Post-industrial transformation, its socio-economic models and the fate of the Russian economy in the XXI century // Vestn. S.-Petersburg. un-ta. Ser. 5. Economy. 2001. Vol. 2.