Introduction

1. The economic essence of population statistics

1.2 Types of population groups

1.3 The concept of mechanical and natural movement of the population

1.4 General characteristics of population movement in Russia

2. Population analysis

2.1 Research methods used in population statistics

2.3 Calculation and analysis of indicators of the dynamics of the population of Russia for 2000-2005.

2.4 Population forecast for 2007-2009

3. Purpose of demographic forecasting

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

Population movement is one of the most important problems in demography. This is a complex social process that affects many socio-economic aspects of the life of the population.

The movement is changing the structure and size of the population. Migration flows (mechanical movement of the population) rush from one region and country to another. Migration provides undoubted advantages to countries and regions that receive labor and supply it, and sometimes has an extremely negative impact on the economic and social situation of the country.

Many processes in human life are associated with population migration: resettlement, development of new lands, redistribution of labor resources between cities, regions, countries.

Natural movement affects the demographic situation through processes such as fertility and mortality.

Governments of countries pay considerable attention to their regulation and stimulation (and sometimes limitation). A number of sciences are engaged in their research, such as demography, statistics, economics.

The purpose of this work is to consider the very concepts of mechanical and natural movement of the population, to determine the features of this phenomenon for Russia: the main trends, problems.

The objectives of this work are:

Study of the demographic situation in Russia;

Analysis of the identified problems;

Population dynamics and forecast for 2009.

The urgency of this problem in our country is very high - as a result of the 2003 census, it became clear that the process of population decline in the Russian Federation continues.

Neither natural nor migration growth can even stabilize this process, which is unfavorable for our country, not to mention positive population growth. The situation is such that it is possible that it will be possible to maintain at least some acceptable level of the country's population, the level of production, only due to the intensive attraction of foreign labor.

The events of recent decades have greatly changed the political and social situation in Russia. The more acute is the problem of the mechanical movement of the population. Migration flows, poorly regulated due to the lack of a well-thought-out legislative framework for their limitation, cause great harm to the state - the crime situation is deteriorating, currency is being exported abroad. Labor migration is also a very interesting issue at the moment.

It is labor migration that can make up for Russia's lack of human resources (not counting, of course, possible immigration to the Russian Federation from the CIS countries).

All these issues are very important, and this paper will consider the current situation related to the movement of the population.

The subject of study is the indicators of fertility, mortality, life expectancy, marriages and divorces, general population movement, etc.

The object of the research is the Russian Federation.

The work uses the calculations of indicators of the series of dynamics, regression analysis.

1. Economic essence

1.1 Objectives of population statistics

Population, as a subject of study in statistics, is a collection of people living in a certain territory and continuously renewing due to births and deaths. The population of any state is very heterogeneous in composition and changeable over time, therefore, the patterns of population development, changes in its composition and many other characteristics should be studied taking into account specific historical conditions.

In population statistics, the observation unit is most often an individual as an individual, but it can also be a family. In 1994, when conducting a microcensus in Russia, for the first time, not only the family, but also the household was taken into account (as is customary in international practice). Unlike a family, a household is understood as people living together and leading a common household (not necessarily relatives). A household, unlike a family, can also consist of one person who provides himself financially.

The main characteristics of the composition of the population that are significant from the point of view of social processes include: education, qualifications, position held, profession, affiliation with sectors of the economy, and others. Of great importance is the grouping of the population by sources of livelihood, property relations, and economic burden in the family. Social differentiation can be revealed by demographic (gender, age, marital status, family composition) and ethnic (nationality, language) characteristics. To solve many social problems, population groups are needed that unite rural residents, townspeople, and residents of large cities.

The main source of statistical data is current accounting and one-time observations in the form of complete or sample censuses. Moreover, the primary source of information about the population is censuses. They provide the most complete and accurate information about the population. The current registration of births, deaths, who arrived in a particular territory and left it allows you to determine the population size annually based on the results of the last census.

Population censuses examine the following questions:

· The number and distribution of the population across the country, by urban and rural types of population, population migration;

· Structure of the population by sex, age, marital status and marital status;

· Structure of the population by nationality, native and spoken language, by citizenship;

· Distribution of the population by level of education, by sources of livelihood, by branches of the national economy, by occupation and position in occupation;

· Social characteristics of the population;

· Fertility;

· Housing conditions of the population.

In the Russian Federation, the legal basis for conducting population censuses is government decrees that are specially adopted upon the submission of statistical agencies some time before each census, sometimes several years, sometimes months. The State Duma adopted the draft Federal Law "On the All-Russian Population Census" on December 28, 2001.

In the intervals between censuses, in order to obtain important data on the demographic and social processes taking place in society, sample surveys (micro-censuses of the population) are usually carried out, covering 5% of the resident population.

The published results of censuses and micro-censuses provide data for the country as a whole, for regions, territories, autonomous republics, urban and rural population. Thus, information on the composition of the population is updated every five years. In addition, the most important characteristics are calculated at the beginning of each year of the intercensal period. They are obtained by adjusting the census data taking into account current changes (births, deaths, change of residence).

For all the value of this information, there are formidable obstacles to its effective use. The difficulty lies in the fact that there are two autonomous data sets: 1) on the composition of the population; 2) on the production and consumption of various kinds of social services and consumer goods. The main thing is missing - their docking. It remains unknown how different groups of the population behave as consumers.

There is only one way to solve the problem - to conduct special sample surveys, where data on consumption and personal characteristics of the respondents would be combined at the individual level. This approach in state statistics is implemented in the form of an ongoing survey of the population's family budgets. With their help, the issues of food consumption and some other components of the consumer budget are successfully investigated.

In addition, one-time examinations are carried out as necessary. They are carried out by state statistics services and other organizations and relate to the most pressing problems of consumption and development of infrastructure sectors. Whatever questions such non-continuous surveys concern, for their organization, conduct and use of the results, at least general information about the structure of the population of a particular territory is needed.

The materials of the population censuses and the calculated data obtained on their basis for the years of the intercensal period serve as such an information base. All data on the composition of the population provided by censuses are the basis for social research; moreover, each social problem is associated with a specific list of characteristics of the composition of the population.

Over time, not only the composition of the population changes, but also the principles and methods of its study. At present, the principles of population statistics are approaching the international standard.

1.2 Types of population groups

Such a complex set as a population, whose individual elements have many varying characteristics, cannot be studied without dividing it into separate groups and subgroups. Different types of population groups give an idea of ​​its composition according to different indicators.

First of all, this process is associated with the operation of general methodological principles - typological, structural, analytical. Several principles can be noted that are important when building population groups:

· The most detailed list of groups is appropriate if this characteristic is presented autonomously, without a combination with other features (by age, by profession with a detailed list of professions);

· In the case of combination groups, enlarged intervals are used to avoid excessive crushing of the material;

· Some features are used as cross-cutting, that is, they are involved in almost all combination groupings of the population. These are gender, age, education, as well as the division of the population into urban and rural;

· In the distribution series, the values ​​of the attribute attributes are given, if possible, in a ranked sequence;

· To ensure comparability of data, as far as possible and appropriate, the grouping schemes of previous population censuses are retained, or they are presented in a form that is convenient for bringing to comparison by aggregating the intervals;

· Unified groupings are used when developing data for different territories of the country;

· If the administrative boundaries of any territory have changed since the previous census, information about this is given in the form of a note, and information is given in two versions - in terms of uniform boundaries and within the boundaries of the corresponding years.

Among the groups in the statistics of the population, first of all, there are purely demographic groups, which include groupings of the population by sex, age, marital status, and nationality.

Grouping the population by sex allows you to determine the number and proportion of men and women in the total population. This grouping is more interesting for individual regions, districts. The data on the sex composition, given by territory, give an idea of ​​the even or uneven ratio of men and women in certain regions of the country. In turn, this ratio often depends on the production direction of the district's economy. For example, in areas dominated by industries such as coal, oil, metallurgy, the proportion of men is usually higher than in areas where light or textile industries are more developed.

Grouping by gender must be given in combination with other grouping characteristics (age, social status, education).

The grouping of the population by age is also one of the main and important in population statistics. Age ranges are usually presented in the following variants: one-year, five-year, and ten-year. There are groups of people younger than working age, working age and older than working age.

Grouping by age is built for the entire population, as well as for men and women, for urban and rural populations, etc.

People of different nationalities live in any state, therefore, when developing census materials, as a rule, the distribution of the population by ethnic composition is given.

When studying the national composition of the population, the language used by individual nationalities is usually taken into account. So, for example, when developing materials for the microcensus of the population of Russia in 1994, it was determined how many people out of 1000 people of each nationality use the language of their nationality and how many - Russian: at home, in an educational (preschool) institution, at work.

The grouping of the population by family status is of great importance in population statistics.

Census materials on this issue can be developed in different ways. Sometimes the number of single and single persons is simply determined. With such a division, the latter group unites both widowed and divorced, and those who have not yet married, that is, this group is very heterogeneous in its composition. A more complete and correct idea of ​​the marital status is given by a grouping in which persons are distinguished: never married, married (of them registered and unregistered), widowed, divorced, dispersed. These subgroups are allocated separately for men and women of different age groups, starting from the age of 16.

In addition to the purely demographic groupings listed above, statistics develop a number of groupings based on other indicators both for the entire population as a whole and for its individual contingents.

So, among people of working age, the number of people employed in the economy and the unemployed is determined first of all.

It is important to group the population according to sources of livelihood. On the basis of this grouping in Soviet statistics, a grouping of the population according to social status was also built, in which, since 1939, the following social groups were distinguished: workers and employees; collective farm peasantry and cooperative handicraftsmen; individual peasants and uncooperated handicraftsmen. This grouping covered the entire population.

In the context of the transition to market relations, such a grouping of the population by social status, of course, cannot be considered sufficient. It is being finalized, and at present these data are not published in the official statistical yearbook.

When developing census materials, much attention is paid to characterizing the level of education of the entire population and the employed. In the results of censuses, the distribution of the total (aged 15 years and over) and the employed is given according to the following educational level groups: higher, incomplete higher, specialized secondary, general secondary, incomplete secondary.

The population by educational level is distributed separately for the urban and rural population, for men and women, for certain nationalities, for the employed population, for certain sectors of the economy and occupations.

1.3 The concept of mechanical and natural movement of the population

Under natural movement of the population understand demographic events that naturally affect population size. These events include births, deaths, marriages and divorces.

Natural movement can also be defined as a natural regulator of the biological process of all life on Earth, including humans, manifested through such indicators as fertility, mortality, natural growth (determined by the difference between fertility and mortality).

These indicators determine the total population of the country as a whole. In the context of individual regions, natural and mechanical growth can affect the change in the total population of a country and territory in different ways. As a rule, in areas of pioneering development, mechanical influx at the initial stage of the formation of industrial hubs, territorial-production complexes play a greater role than natural growth in population change. In the old industrial regions, natural growth plays a dominant role.

Among the factors that determine fertility and mortality are the following:

1) Age and sex structure of the population.

2) Marriages and divorces.

3) Regional and national traditions.

4) The standard of living of the population:

- cash income and expenses of the population;

- production of consumer goods;

- provision of permanent work;

- development of the health care system;

- provision of housing;

- the level of education.

5) Environmental situation.

6) Ability to bear children.

The listed factors are considered in time and space. The degree of their influence is different.

Under mechanical movement population means migration of the population, both voluntary and forced.

In a broad sense, migration (from Lat. Migratio - resettlement) is understood as any territorial movement of people.

In a narrow sense, migration is the movement of people across the borders of certain territories with a change of place of residence forever or for a more or less long time. Persons taking part in the migration movement of the population are called migrants.

When analyzing population migration, it is classified according to a number of characteristics:

1. Depending on the nature of border crossing:

1) Internal - within the same country between administrative or economic-geographical regions, settlements (migration from city to city, from village to village, from city to village, from village to city).

2) External - connected with crossing the state border. External migration includes emigration and immigration.

Emigration(from lat. emigro - moving out, moving), relocation (voluntary or forced, gravity or organized) to another country for permanent or temporary (for a long time) residence, in most cases with a change of citizenship.

Immigration(from Lat. immigro - move in), entry (move in) into a country for permanent or temporary (usually long-term) residence of citizens of another country, mostly with obtaining a new citizenship.

Also, external migration can be divided into intracontinental and intercontinental.

2. Depending on temporal signs:

1) Constant.

2) Temporary.

3) Seasonal - temporary, annual movement of people (for example, summer migration to resort areas).

4) Pendulum - regular movement of the population from one settlement to another to work or study and vice versa.

3. Classification by forms of implementation:

1) Organized.

2) Spontaneous.

4. Depending on the nature of the reasons for migration:

1) Political.

2) Economic.

3) Social.

5. Depending on the measures taken by the state

1) Voluntary.

2) Forced (forced) - the movement of people occurring for reasons beyond their control.

Labor force migration has the greatest impact on the development of society. It covers the working-age population and is sometimes called labor migration.

Speaking of migration, one cannot fail to mention "Brain Drain". This term has become widespread in our country relatively recently. "Brain drain" is a complex process related to various branches of science: demography, sociology, economics, geopolitics.

Migration of specialists has different implications for countries than migration of unskilled workers. The migration of unskilled workers is quite favorable for the donor country, since it allows to reduce unemployment and the associated social costs and expenses, as well as emigrants, sending part of their earnings to their homeland or bringing it home upon return, thereby supply the domestic economy with foreign exchange resources.

With the emigration of scientists and specialists, skilled workers and engineering and technical personnel, the donor country loses. It loses all the capital expenditures invested in the training of these personnel. The domestic market is losing its intellectual elite and creative potential.

Among the emigrants, young people aged 30 to 40 predominate, on the one hand, who have already shown themselves as extraordinary researchers and developers, and on the other hand, they have an age reserve for the realization of creative possibilities. They make up more than 50% of all emigrants of this contingent. In addition, young people who assume the possibility of leaving Russia to improve their education and qualifications often postpone the birth of children, which naturally leads to a decrease in the birth rate.

Specialties, the owners of which have the best chances of a successful placement abroad (%):

Physicists 68

Mathematicians 60

Computer Professionals 46

Programmers 42

Genetics 24

Chemists 23

Biologists 19

Doctors 10

Philologists 7

Lawyers 5

Philosophers and sociologists 3

Economists 1

Russia does not yet have effective legislation governing intellectual property relations. For this reason, many inventions and specialists have flown abroad. According to the official data available to the Ministry of Science and Technology of the Russian Federation, about 8 thousand Russian scientists work in more than 40 scientific programs of the Pentagon and the US Department of Energy. In this case, Russian equipment is used, as well as the results of intellectual activity obtained in previous years.

Migration is influenced by many factors. Migration factors are a combination of objective and subjective reasons that influence the decision to migrate. In modern conditions, the most common classification differentiates the factors of migration for reasons of an economic and non-economic nature. Assessment of the feasibility of migration depends on the individual characteristics of migrants, on regional factors, national

the policy of the country of origin, on the corresponding characteristics of the country of destination, comparing which a person makes a decision on migration, acting under the influence of the social environment in which he works.

The most important socio-economic function of population migration is to ensure the mobility of the population, its territorial redistribution. It contributes to a fuller use of labor and an increase in production.

At the same time, migration of the population has a significant impact on the balance of the labor market, changes the economic and social situation of the population, is often accompanied by an increase in educational and professional training, and the expansion of the needs of people involved in migration.

The massive influx of migrants can be the reason for the rise in unemployment, strong pressure on social infrastructure. Local governments are not always able to cope with the influx of people, there are problems with housing, health care, and the criminal situation may not change for the better. This is how migration affects the standard of living of the indigenous people.

Speaking of migration, one cannot fail to mention such a category of the population as refugees... Forced migration is one of the problems of our time. According to the UN, by the beginning of 2005, there were about 20 million refugees in the world. National governments, international and intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations are taking part in solving this problem.

The Federal Law "On Refugees" gives the following definition of the word "refugee" - a person who is not a citizen of the Russian Federation and who, due to well-founded fears of becoming a victim of persecution on the basis of race, religion, citizenship, nationality, belonging to a particular social group or political is outside the country of his nationality and cannot benefit from the protection of that country or does not want to benefit from such protection due to such fears; or, not having a certain nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or unwilling to return to it because of such fears.

The heterogeneity of refugees implies their division into two groups:

1. Temporary transit, suggesting to return to the places of their former residence.

2. Irrevocable, suggesting settlement on the territory of Russia.

An internally displaced person is a citizen of the Russian Federation who has left his place of residence as a result of violence or persecution in other forms committed against him or his family members, or as a result of a real risk of being persecuted on the basis of race or nationality, religion, language, as well as on the basis of belonging to a certain social group or political convictions that have become the reasons for conducting hostile campaigns against a specific person or group of people, massive violations of public order.

A foreign citizen or a stateless person permanently residing on the territory of Russia on a legal basis can also be recognized as an internally displaced person.

1.4 General characteristics of population movement in Russia

In terms of population, Russia ranks seventh in the world. In 2008, 142.008 million people lived in our country. Moreover, in the 19 years that have passed since the 1989 census, the population has decreased by 5 million people (including in urban settlements - by 4.2 million people, in rural areas - by 0.8 million people).

Let's analyze the movement of the population, based on the data of the Demographic Yearbook of Russia for 2003.

Natural population decline by 75% is compensated by migration, in terms of its volume Russia is in third place in the world. According to this indicator, we are second only to the USA and Germany. The overwhelming majority (three quarters) of migrants are the Russian-speaking population from the CIS countries.

The ratio of the urban and rural population in the Russian Federation remained at the level of 1989 and amounted to 73% to 27%. Moreover, about a fifth of the city dwellers live in millionaire cities, there are 13 of them in Russia.

80% of the population of Russia - 116 million people - are Russians. Six peoples have overcome the millionth milestone: Tatars, Ukrainians, Chechens, Bashkirs, Chuvash and Armenians.

In general (Fig. 12-18 Appendix) experts demographic situation in the country as favorable. There are 89 million citizens of working age, while those younger than working age - 26.3 million, and older - 29.8 million. below the critical point.

The number of unregistered marriages has doubled compared to the previous census - from 5% to 10%. More than a third of all children live in such families. The average age of a father has increased to 26.2 years, and that of a mother - to 25.5, while if earlier there were two children per woman, now it is only 1.3.

The number of people who have never been married or divorced has grown by 40%. The number of divorced marriages is 800 thousand per year against 583 thousand in 1989. More than a third of marriages break up after less than five years.

According to the census, 67.6 million men and 77.6 million women live in Russia, that is, there are 1,147 women per 1,000 men (in 1989 - 1,140). The predominance of the number of women starts at the age of 33, the average age is 37.7 years.

The main reason for the decline in the number of Russians is a steady natural decline in the population.

The trend towards natural population decline raises serious concerns. In order for the country not to fear for its future, every woman should have at least two and a half children. In Russia, this figure is 2 times less.

As a result of the excess of the number of deaths over the number of births, the population of Russia decreased in 1992-2003 by 9.6 million people, or 6.4% (for example, in 1980-1991, on the contrary, it increased as a result of the excess of the number of births over the number of births). deaths by 8.4 million people, that is, by 6.1%).

The migration gain in Russia was especially intense in the mid-1990s, but even at that time the natural decline was not fully compensated for.

For the entire period of population decline, the registered migration increase amounted to 3.5 million people, that is, 2.3% (for the period from 1980 to 1991 - 2.0 million people, or 1.5%).

Natural decline intensified in the late 1990s. In 2000, it reached 953.7 thousand people, which is -6.6 per 1000 resident population. By 2003, the natural decline decreased to 887.1 thousand people, in 2001 - by 10.4 thousand people (1.1%), in 2002 - by 8.5 thousand people (0.9%), in 2003 - by 48.2 thousand people, that is, 5.2%!

However, after a slight increase in 2002, the downward trend in the migration growth of the population resumed.

In 2001, it amounted to 72.3 thousand people, or 0.5 per 1000 population (213.6 thousand people (1.5 per 1000 population) in the previous year, 2000). Below this, the migration growth of the population of Russia over the past 27 years (before that Russia was losing population in the migration exchange with the union republics) was only in 1991 (51.6 thousand people) and 1980 (63.4 thousand people, respectively).

In 2002, the migration growth, however, slightly increased, amounting to 77.9 thousand people (0.54 per 1000 population), but 2003 was characterized by a rapid decline in the registered migration growth of the population. It decreased 2.2 times, amounting to 35.1 thousand people, that is, 0.25 per 1000 people. (Data for January-February 2003 are presented in Table 1 of the Appendix).

Population trends in Russian regions are still very heterogeneous:

In some regions, the population is growing due to both natural and migration growth (Nenets, Khanty-Mansi, Yamalo-Nenets), while in many others it is decreasing as a result of both natural decline and migration outflow.

For some regions (the republics of Sakha (Yakutia), Tyva, Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkaria, Kalmykia; Chukotka, Evenk Autonomous Okrugs), while maintaining natural growth, migration outflow of the population is characteristic. In most European regions, the migration inflow to one degree or another compensates for the natural decline in population.

In 2003, natural growth was noted only in 16 Russian regions. It was the highest in the Chechen Republic (1.9%), as well as in the republics of Ingushetia and Dagestan (1.1% each), in other regions the natural increase was 0.8% or less.

In 41 regions, the intensity of natural population decline exceeded the average level in Russia, and in 16 of them it exceeded 1%, and in Pskov, Tula, Tver and Novgorod regions - 1.4%.

The highest migration growth in the past year was in the Moscow and Leningrad regions (0.9% and 0.8%, respectively). The third place in this classification is occupied by the Belgorod region (0.7%), followed by Moscow (about 0.5%) and the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug (0.4%).

The migration outflow was characteristic of the Chukotka (3.5%), Magadan regions, Taimyr and Evenk autonomous districts (in the latter it was 1.2%, 1.9%).

In 2003, 129.1 thousand immigrants were registered, while in 2002 this figure was 184.6 thousand people. That is, in 2003, 55.5 thousand people arrived in Russia (30.0%) less than in 2002. These are mainly immigrants from the CIS and Baltic countries (more than 94%).

In 2003, 94.0 thousand people left the country, which is 12.7 thousand people, or 11.9% less than in 2002 (in 2002 the number of emigrants was equal to 106.7 thousand people).

The number of emigrants from Russia heading outside the CIS and Baltic countries has in recent years equaled the number of those leaving for the CIS and Baltic countries.

The intensity of interregional migration can be judged by the number of arrivals and departures per 1000 people.

In 51 regions, the rate of entry in 2003 was higher than the national average - 14.9 per 1000 population. It was highest (30 people per 1000 population) in Magadan and Amur regions, Yamalo-Nenets, Khanty-Mansi and Chukotka autonomous okrugs, in the Republic of Khakassia.

These regions also had high retirement rates. The highest number of people leaving (over 60 people per 1000 population) was registered in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. In the Magadan Region, it approached 50, in the Republic of Kalmykia, Taimyr and Koryak Autonomous Districts, Amur Region - 32-34, in the Republic of Khakassia, Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) - about 28.

The intensity of internal migration in 2003 increased slightly. The number of migrants who moved within Russia amounted to 2,039.0 thousand people, which is 21.7 thousand people, or 1.1% more than in 2002.

Internal movements remain seasonal to a greater extent than external migration. The largest number of registered movements falls on September-October, the smallest - in May.

2. Population analysis

2.1 Research methods used in population statistics

Over time, not only the composition of the population changes, but also the principles and methods of its study. In the mid-90s. the social-class grouping of the population has been radically changed. For many years in our country the following list of the main social groups was adopted: workers, employees and collective farmers. At present, the grouping is based on the attribute "position in employment" (work for hire, a member of a cooperative, an employer, etc.), which is more consistent with international practice and the previous experience of Russian statistics. For example, when developing the results of the 1926 census, groups were distinguished: workers, office workers, owners with hired workers, owners without hired workers, people of the free professions, the unemployed, pensioners, etc.

Method in the most general sense means a way to achieve a goal, to regulate activities. The method of concrete science is a set of methods of theoretical and practical cognition of reality. For an independent science, it is necessary not only to have a subject of research that is special from other sciences, but also to have its own methods of studying this subject. The set of research methods used in any science is methodology this science.

Since population statistics are sectoral statistics, statistical methodology serves as the basis for its methodology.

The most important method included in the statistical methodology - obtaining information about the studied processes and phenomena - statistical observation ... It serves as the basis for collecting data both in current statistics and during censuses, monographic and sample studies of the population. Here, the full use of the provisions of theoretical statistics on the establishment of the object of the unit of observation, the introduction of the concepts of the date and time of registration, the program, organizational issues of observation, systematization and publication of its results. Statistical methodology also includes the principle of the independence of assigning each person to be rewritten to a certain group - the principle of self-determination.

The next stage in the statistical study of socio-economic phenomena is to determine their structure, i.e. selection of parts and elements that make up the totality. We are talking about the method of groupings and classifications, which are called typological and structural in population statistics.

To understand the structure of the population, it is necessary, first of all, to distinguish the attribute of grouping and classification. Any sign that has been observed can also serve as a grouping one. For example, on the question of the attitude towards the person recorded in the census form first, it is possible to determine the structure of the census population, where it seems likely to distinguish a significant number of groups. This feature is attributive, therefore, when developing census forms based on it, it is necessary to compile in advance a list of classifications necessary for analysis (groupings by attributive features). When classifications with a large number of attribute records are drawn up, assignment to certain groups is justified in advance. So, according to their occupation, the population is divided into several thousand species, which statistics bring into certain classes, which is recorded in the so-called vocabulary of occupations.

When studying the structure by quantitative characteristics, it becomes possible to use such statistical generalized indicators as mean, mode and median, distance measures or indicators of variation to characterize different parameters of the population. The considered structures of phenomena serve as the basis for studying the connection in them. In the theory of statistics, functional and statistical relationships are distinguished. The study of the latter is impossible without dividing the population into groups and then comparing the value of the effective trait.

Grouping on a factorial basis and comparison with changes in the effective attribute allows you to establish the direction of the relationship: direct or reverse, as well as give an idea of ​​its form broken regression ... These groupings allow you to build a system of equations necessary to find parameters of the regression equation and determining the tightness of the relationship by calculating the correlation coefficients. Groupings and classifications serve as the basis for the use of analysis of variance of relationships between indicators of population movement and the factors that cause them.

Statistical methods are widely used in the study of the population. dynamics research , graphic study of phenomena , index , selective and balance ... We can say that population statistics use the entire arsenal of statistical methods and examples to study their object. In addition, methods developed only for the study of the population are used. These are the methods real generation (cohorts) and conditional generation ... The first allows you to consider changes in the natural movement of peers (born in the same year) - longitudinal analysis; the second examines the natural movement of peers (living at the same time) - a cross-sectional analysis.

It is interesting to use averages and indices when taking into account the peculiarities and comparing the processes occurring in the population, when the conditions for comparing data are not equal. Using different weighting when calculating the generalizing average values, a standardization method has been developed that makes it possible to eliminate the influence of different age characteristics of the population.

Probability theory as a mathematical science studies the properties of the objective world using abstractions , the essence of which consists in a complete abstraction from the qualitative determinateness and in highlighting their quantitative side. Abstraction is a process of mental abstraction from many aspects of the properties of objects and at the same time the process of isolating, isolating any aspects of interest to us, properties and relations of the objects under study. The use of abstract mathematical methods in population statistics makes it possible statistical modeling processes occurring in the population. The need for modeling arises when it is impossible to study the object itself. The largest number of models used in population statistics have been developed to characterize its dynamics. Among them stand out exponential and logistic... Models are of particular importance in forecasting the population for future periods. stationary and stable population, which determine the type of population that has developed in these conditions.

If the construction of models of the exponential and logistic population uses data on the dynamics of the absolute population for the past period, then the models of the stationary and stable population are based on the characteristics of the intensity of its development.

So the statistical methodology of studying the population has at its disposal a number of methods of the general theory of statistics, mathematical methods and special methods developed in the statistics of the population itself. Population statistics, using the methods discussed above, develops a system of generalizing indicators, indicates the necessary information, methods for calculating them, the cognitive capabilities of these indicators, conditions of use, recording procedure and meaningful interpretation.

2.2 Population indicators

Population- a set of people living in a certain territory.

The population is divided into:

1) permanent (PN): persons permanently residing in a given territory, regardless of their location at the time of the census;

2) cash (NN): persons who, at the time of the census, are actually in the given territory, regardless of their place of permanent residence.

In addition, temporary residents (VP) and temporarily absent (VO) are taken into account. Data on the available population is used in organizing the work of transport, trade, water supply, etc. PI data is used in planning for housing, schools, hospitals, etc. There is a relationship between the listed indicators.

PN = NN - VP + VO - NN = PN + VP - VO

Population calculation finally of each year following the census:

S t + 1 = S t + N t -M t + P t -B t, where:

S t + 1 and S t - population size in the corresponding years;

N t is the number of births in the year t;

M t is the number of deaths in year t;

П t is the number of arrivals;

B t is the number of dropouts.

The absolute indicator of the population size S is a moment indicator (as of a certain date), i.e. January 1, June 1, etc.

General population change:

DS = S t + 1 - S t.

To carry out economic calculations, you need to know average population for a certain time.

If there is data at the beginning and end of the period, then the calculation by the arithmetic mean method is simple:

If there is data on the population size for several equidistant dates, then the calculation by the unweighted average chronological method for the moment series:

If the intervals between the dates are unequal, then the calculation by the arithmetic weighted average method:

To characterize the change in population over time, the following are used:

1.population growth rate:

2.population growth rate:

Having determined the size of the population, the SES studies its composition using the grouping method, which is carried out according to:

* social composition,

* spheres of activity and sectors of the economy,

* professions,

* age,

* marital status, etc.

The change in population due to birth and death is called natural population movement. It is characterized by absolute and relative indicators.

Absolute indicators:

1.number of births - N;

2. the number of deaths - M;

3. natural growth - N-M = DS naturals. ;

4. the number of marriages and divorces.

These indicators are interval, i.e. determined for the period.

To judge the frequency of certain demographic events are used relative indicators... They are expressed in ppm (0/00) and characterize the population level per 1000 people.

1. Total fertility rate. - the number of births per year .

2. The general mortality rate. - the number of deaths per year per 1000 people of the average annual population .

3. The coefficient of natural growth. or K eats. nat. = K r -K cm.

4. Coefficient of vitality of the population (coefficient of Pokrovsky) K w (Pokr) = (N / M) * 1000 = K p / K cm.

A feature of the general coefficients is that they are calculated per 1000 people of the entire population. In addition to general, private coefficients are also used, cat. calculated per 1000 people. a certain age, sex, professional or other group.

5. Age-specific mortality rate.

, where:

X - age, profession, etc.

M x - the number of deaths at the age of x.

S x - average population at age х.

6. Ratio of infant mortality under 1 year of age.

, where:

M 0 - the number of children who died before the age of 1 year.

N t is the number of births in a given year.

N t-1 is the number of births in the previous year.

Special coefficients are also calculated. The most widespread is the special fertility rate (fertility rate (fertility):

, where:

S women 15-49 - the average number of women of fertile age from 15 to 49 years.

There is a relationship between the general and special fertility rates:

, where:

d f 15-49 - the proportion of women aged 15-49.

.

There is a relationship between the general and special coefficients - any general coefficient can be represented as the arithmetic mean of the partial coefficients, weighted by the number of population groups or their share in the total number.

, where:

d x - share of group x in P.

Thus, the overall ratio depends on private and population structure.

There are also standardized coefficients, cat. when making a comparison, the influence of the age structure is eliminated. Calculated using the weighted arithmetic mean formula:

In this case, the options are partial coefficients, and the weights are the indicators of the age structure, taken as the standard for comparison.

Mechanical change is a change in population due to the territorial movement of people, i.e. due to migrations, which are:

* external;

* internal;

* seasonal;

* pendulum.

The absolute indicator of population movement - V.

The number of arrivals - P.

Absolute mechanical gain - P fur. = P-B.

The intensity of mechanical movement is characterized by the following relative indicators :

7.arrival rate - ;

8.retirement rate - ;

9.the mechanical gain coefficient - ;

To characterize the change in the number due to the natural movement of the population and due to migration, the coefficient of total growth is calculated:

1) ;

2) ;

3) K o.p. = To eat natural + K mechanical nature.

Mortality tables and calculation of the projected population size

The mortality table is a system of related indicators that depend on the mortality rate at different ages.

Table 1

NS varies from 0 to 100 years (one-year groups).

l x installed for 10,000 people.

d x - the number of deaths before the age of x + 1 years

q x= d x / l x - probability of death within a year

p x= l x +1 / l x - the probability of surviving until the next. age ( p x + q x = 1)

L x - the average of the number of survivors from age x to x + 1.

L x = (l x + l x +1) / 2. (Except age 0).

T x is the total number of person-years, cat. aggregates of persons from the age of x years to the age limit will have to live

- the average life expectancy.

- coefficient of movement, calculated on the basis of the table.

1. method of moving ages. S x +1 = S x * P x.

2.a arithmetic progression method. , where:

S t + l - population size in l years.

S t- population size at the reference date.

D is the average annual absolute population growth.

2.b geometric progression method.

3. analysis of the dynamics of the number for a number of years, determination of the trend of changes, extrapolation of the series of dynamics. y (t) = ab t is an exponential function. Having determined the parameters a and b from the actual data, by substituting t (years), we obtain the possible values ​​of the population size in any t period.

Parameter a is the initial population size in the period where t = 0.

Parameter b - the coefficient of total growth, shows how many times the average population increases annually.

2.3 Calculation and analysis of indicators of the dynamics of the population of Russia for 2000-2005

The initial data on the population of Russia are shown in Table 2:

table 2

In table 3, we will calculate the indicators of the series of dynamics.

Table 3

	Number, people (yi)	Absolute growth, thousand people		Rates of growth, %		Growth rate,%		Absolute values ​​of growth (Аi),%
		Chain (Δts)	Basic (Δb)	Chain (TC)	Basic (TrB)	Chain (TprTs)	Basic (TprB)

Absolute gains:

Chain: Δts = yi - yi-1

For 2001: 146303.6-146890.1 = - 586.5

For 2002: 145649.3-146303.6 = - 654.3

For 2003: 144963.6-145649.3 = - 685.7

For 2004: 144168.2 -144963.6 = - 795.4

For 2005: 143474.2-144168.2 = - 694;

Basic: Δb = yi - y1

For 2001: 146303.6 -146890.1 = - 586.5

For 2002: 145649.3-146890.1 = - 1240.8

For 2003: 144963.6-146890.1 = - 1926.5

For 2004: 144168.2-146890.1 = - 2721.9

For 2005: 143474.2-146890.1 = - 3415.9

Rates of growth:

Chain: TRC =

2002: (145649.3 / 146303.6) * 100% = 99.55277%

2003: (144963.6 / 145649.3) * 100% = 99.52921%

2004: (144168.2 / 144963.6) * 100% = 99.45131%

2005: (143474.2 / 144168.2) * 100% = 99.51861%

Basic: TrB =

2001: (146303.6 / 146890.1) * 100% = 99.60072%

2002: (145649.3 / 146890.1) * 100% = 99.15528%

2003: (144963.6 / 146890.1) * 100% = 98.68847%

2004: (144168.2 / 146890.1) * 100% = 98.14698%

2005: (143474.2 / 146890.1) * 100% = 97.67451%

Growth rates:

Chain: ТпрЦ - 100

2001: 99.60072 -100 = -0.3993

2002: 99.55277 - 100 = -0.4472

2003: 99.52921 - 100 = -0.4708

2004: 99.45131 - 100 = -0.5487

2005: 99.51861 - 100 = .- 0.4814

Basic: TprB - 100

2001: 99.60072 - 100 = -0.3993

2002: 99.15528 - 100 = -0.8447

2003: 98.68847 - 100 = -1.3115

2004: 98.14698 - 100 = -1.853

2005: 97.67451 - 100 = -2.3255.

Absolute gain values:

2001: 146890.1 / 100 = 1468.9

2002: 146303.6 / 100 = 1463.04

2003: 145649.3 / 100 = 1456.49

2004: 144963.6 / 100 = 1449.64

2005: 144168.2 / 100 = 1441.68

Average absolute growth: = = - 683,2

Average growth rate: = = = 0.9955.

7) Average growth rate: = 0.9955 * 100% -100 = -0.45.

One of the main tasks of studying time series is to identify patterns (tendencies) in the development of a process or phenomenon. Based on the data obtained as a result of the analysis of a number of dynamics of the population of Russia continues to fall. The values ​​of chain and basic indicators show us the characteristics of changes in the levels of the time series. In particular, a sharp decline in the value of chain absolute growth in 2004 can be noted, given the constant negative growth over all 5 years. Indicators of chain growth rates show that the current population in the period from 2000-2005. was on the decline.

2.4 Population forecast for 2007-2009

Based on the data in Table 2, we will build graphs:

Among the plotted graphs, the least value of the approximation error is observed for the power-law model.

Consider a linear model to make a population forecast for 2006-2007. To do this, take a linear equation: y = -690.61 * x + 149040. Let's designate the year:

Table 4

Now, instead of X, we substitute the values ​​into the linear equation to get a forecast for the desired period, as well as the aligned y values. We will calculate the average approximation error using the data of the line graph, comparing them with the data on the population of Russia from the Demographic Reference Book of 2008, using the formula:

, i.e.

Table 5

				(| y - y "|) / y	(| y - y "|) * 100 / y

Substituting the values ​​from the Demographic Reference Book for “y”, the aligned values ​​of “y” instead of “y”, and the number of years instead of “n”, we obtain the average approximation error equal to ≈ 5.70704 / 6 ≈ 0.9512. Such a value of the approximation error exceeds 12-15%, this indicates that the data are not adequate to the real ones, however, the downward trend is accurately traced.

Thus, it is clear that the number of Russia will continue to decline in 2007-2009. According to the 2008 Demographic Directory, in 2007 it was 142,221.0 thousand people, in 2008 - 142008.8 thousand people. According to the forecast, in 2009 it will be 142,133.9 thousand people.

3. Purpose of demographic forecasting

The history of demographic forecasts goes back more than one hundred years. Many scientists - representatives of various sciences - tried to find some "objective laws of population growth": biological, mathematical, economic, etc.

They tried to deduce these "laws" from observations of the laws of reproduction of animals and insects or by experimenting with mathematical models. All these attempts were unsuccessful. There is no automatism in population growth (except for its inertia).

It is determined by the laws of people's social behavior, which, in turn, is governed by the laws of social life.

The demographic forecast is based on knowledge of the theory and general laws of population development, taking into account the main trends in population reproduction in the near historical perspective: further development of urbanization, an increase in the educational and cultural level of the population, a decrease in mortality and an increase in life expectancy, the gradual withering away of the traditions of having many children, changes in family functions, increasing social and territorial mobility of the population, maintaining a certain differentiation in the demographic development of different regions, due to economic, socio-cultural and ethnic factors, etc.

The accuracy of modern demographic forecasting is determined by the level of development of theoretical and applied demography, the general level of scientific forecasting of all aspects of the socio-economic life of society, as well as new analytical and predictive capabilities provided by computer methods. Since the early 1990s, standard software packages have been widely used in demographic forecasting. They significantly save the time required for forecasting calculations, make it possible to calculate various scenarios of possible population dynamics, as well as to make calculations with incomplete or defective data.

The reliability of the demographic forecast depends on:

I) the accuracy of the original information,

2) on the validity of hypotheses about changes in demographic processes under the influence of the entire complex of socio-economic conditions,

3) on the duration of the period for which the forecast is made. There are short-term (up to 5 years), medium-term (up to 30 years) and long-term (30-60 years) forecasts.

The demographic forecast helps to determine both the number and structure (sex and age) of future labor resources, and to assess the possible needs of various socio-demographic groups of the population in various goods and services. It is necessary for a prospective assessment of the development and placement of social facilities, and is widely used in marketing.

The development of state measures for social security is based on demographic forecasting data. In the context of the continuing increase in the number and proportion of the elderly population, it is of great importance to forecast the number of pensioners, their marital status, and health. The need for forecasting indicators characterizing the family structure of the population is growing.

Forecasting the number and composition of families, as well as their income and needs, is necessary to assess the prospects for housing construction.

The role of demographic forecasting in the development of a strategy for the development of society is constantly growing, which is due to the ever increasing social orientation of the economy. In turn, forecasts and programs for the development of industrial and agricultural production of social infrastructure, territorial redistribution of the population, income dynamics, living standards and employment of the population are taken into account when choosing hypotheses for demographic development and choosing a variant of prospective calculation of the population.

Demographic forecasts made under the auspices of the United Nations are used to formulate an international development strategy, recommendations in the field of population policy, to address global and regional economic, political, and environmental problems. UN estimates and projections are revised every two years based on new population data provided by national statistical offices.

Currently, there are many forecasts of the demographic development of Russia. They are of an author's nature and differ from each other in the formulation of tasks, hypotheses, results and the methodological principles underlying them. Knowledge of the design of the forecast and the methodological approach used by one or another author can help in developing an individual user assessment in terms of confidence in the forecast results and the possibility of their use in management practice.

Professor I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada writes the following. In the forms of concretization of the abstract concept of "foresight", it is advisable to separate two concrete concepts: "prediction" and "forecasting". Both contain a third concrete concept - "prediction" (states of a phenomenon or process in the future). But in the first case, the prediction is unconditional, it is characterized by the verbs "will" or "will". And in the second - purely conditional, instrumental: "can be or become under certain conditions," on which the attention of the researcher is focused.

Evaluation of the first kind of forecasts is made "according to the degree of accuracy", which, in turn, is located on the scale: come true - not come true. Note that the managerial significance of the forecast - prediction (what will happen tomorrow) is minimal, since it leaves the decision-making process within the framework of a subjective attitude to the future. Forecasts of this kind can be used as a warning forecast (for example, with a narrowed population reproduction in France, 50s of the 20th century), to justify territorial expansion and geopolitics (Germany, 30s, 20th centuries), to promote family planning programs (developing countries, 60-80s, 20th century).

An alternative approach to the future is deployed in the concept of "technological forecasting": not "what will happen", but "what can happen under the observed trends and what needs to be done to make the most desirable happen." In fact, such an approach should be called problem-oriented, because in practice, extrapolation of the observed trends into the future always shows a picture of emerging problems, and the optimization of these trends always comes down to identifying the most effective solutions to them. A technological forecast, as an early "weighing" of the consequences of a planned decision, gives indescribably more to improve management efficiency (for example, it greatly increases the objectivity of planned decisions) than the most successful guesses. In fact, it is a means of analyzing the patterns of population dynamics under the influence of certain changes in fertility and mortality.

The experience of foreign countries clearly shows that population depopulation is surmountable. According to preliminary estimates, the loss may decrease by several ppm in the foreseeable future. Demographic processes are inherently very inert, and it is impossible to turn the flywheel of depopulation overnight.

There are (in the West) and model mortality tables for causes of death. Other approaches are likely to be possible. It is important to remember that the accuracy of the forecast is determined almost exclusively by the quality of the hypothesis about the trends of demographic development, and not by the complexity of mathematical formulas.

Bibliography

1. Federal Law of 19.02.1993 "On Refugees".

2. Federal Law of 19.02.1993 "On Forced Migrants";

3. Borisov V.A. Demography, M., 1999;

4. Demographic Yearbook of Russia, 2002;

5. Demographic Yearbook of Russia, 2003;

6. Erokhina OV: "Migration: free and forced, socio-economic aspects, the specifics of the migration problem for Russia, the main features of modern labor migration and" brain drain "." // Internet conference on the portal http://www.auditorium.ru;

7. Kildishev et al. Population statistics with the basics of demography, M .: "Finance and Statistics", 1990;

8. Kuzmin A.I. A course of lectures "Fundamentals of Demography". Lecture 12 "Population migration" // http://humanities.edu.ru;

9. Methodological provisions on statistics // Goskomstat of Russia. - M .: Issue 4. - 2003

10. "Population of Russia" // Annual demographic report. M., 1999

11. Salin V.N., Churilova E.Yu. The course of the theory of statistics, M .: Finance and statistics, 2006

12. Tatarkova N.V. Lecture course "Economic demography";

13. Federal State Statistics Service "The size and migration of the population of the Russian Federation in 2002".

14. http://antropotok.archipelag.ru - Center for Strategic Studies of the Volga Federal District. Group "Russian Archipelago";

15. http://demoscope.ru - "Demoscope-Weekly" magazine, electronic version;

16.http: //www.gks.ru;

17.http: //www.perepis2002.ru - 2002 All-Russian Population Census;

18.http: //www.capital.ru

Application

Fig 1. Factors influencing the decision to migrate

Fig 2. Components of the increase (decrease) in the population of Russia, thousand people

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Rice. 3. Components of changes in the population of Russia by months 1998-2003, thousand people

List of regions of the Russian Federation
Central Federal District
1. Belgorod region	2. Bryansk region
3. Vladimir region	4. Voronezh region
5. Ivanovo region	6. Kaluga region
7. Kostroma region	8. Kursk region
9. Lipetsk region	10. Moscow region
11. Oryol region	12. Ryazan region
13. Smolensk region	14. Tambov region
15. Tver region	16. Tula region
17. Yaroslavl region	18.Moscow
Northwestern Federal District
19. Republic of Karelia	20. Komi Republic
21. Arkhangelsk region	22. Nenets auth. district
23. Vologda region	24. Kaliningrad region
25. Leningrad region	26. Murmansk region
27. Novgorod region	28. Pskov region
29.Saint Petersburg
Southern Federal District
	30. Republic of Adygea
31. Republic of Dagestan	32. Republic of Ingushetia
33. Kabardino-Balkar Republic	34. Republic of Kalmykia
35. Karachay-Cherkess Republic	36. Republic of North Ossetia-Alania
37. Chechen Republic *	38. Krasnodar Territory
39. Stavropol Territory	40. Astrakhan region
41. Volgograd region	42. Rostov region
Volga Federal District
43. Republic of Bashkortostan	44. Republic of Mari El
45. Republic of Mordovia	46. ​​Republic of Tatarstan
47. Udmurt Republic	48. Chuvash Republic
49. Kirov region	50. Nizhny Novgorod region
51. Orenburg region	52. Penza region
53. Perm region	54. Komi-Permyak auth. district
55. Samara region	56. Saratov region
57. Ulyanovsk region
Ural federal district
	58. Kurgan region
59. Sverdlovsk region	60. Tyumen region
61. Khanty-Mansi Auth. district	62. Yamalo-Nenets auth. district
63. Chelyabinsk region
Siberian Federal District
	64. Republic of Altai
65. Republic of Buryatia	66. Republic of Tuva
67. Republic of Khakassia	68. Altai Territory
69. Krasnoyarsk Territory	70. Taimyr (Dolgano-Nenets) auth. district
71. Evenk Auth. district	72. Irkutsk region
73. Ust-Orda Buryat auth. district	74. Kemerovo region
75. Novosibirsk region	76. Omsk region
77. Tomsk region	78. Chita region
79. Aginsky Buryat auth. district
Far Eastern Federal District
	80. Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
81. Primorsky Territory	82. Khabarovsk Territory
83. Amur Region	84. Kamchatka region
85. Koryak auth. district	86. Magadan Region
87. Sakhalin Region	88. Jewish Auth. region
89. Chukotka aut. district

* Data for the Chechen Republic, as a rule, are absent or determined by expert judgment

Rice. 4. Components of changes in the population of regions-constituent entities of the Russian Federation for 2003 (based on the results for January-November in annual terms), per 1000 people

Rice. 5. Migration growth of the population of Russia, 1980-2003, thousand people and per 10 thousand people

Rice. 6. Main flows of external migration in Russia by months, 1998-2003

Rice. 7. The number of migrants moving within Russia, 1979-2003, thousand people registered upon arrival

Rice. 8. The number of migrants moving within Russia, by months, 1998-2003

Rice. 9. Dynamics of the number of Armenians, Azerbaijanis, Georgians, Tajiks and Kazakhs according to the censuses of 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989 and 2002 (1989 = 100%)

Rice. 10. Dynamics of the number of individual peoples of the North Caucasus according to the censuses of 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989 and 2002 (1989 = 100%)

Rice. 11. Dynamics of the number of individual peoples of the Volga region according to the censuses of 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989 and 2002 (1989 = 100%)

Rice. 12. Population

Rice. 13. Urban and rural population.

Rice. 14. National composition.

Rice. 15. Women per 1000 Men

Rice. 16. Marital status of the population.

Rice. 17. Main streams of migration.

Table 1.

Table 2. Indicators of natural population growth.

Table 3. The number of forced migrants and refugees (people).

Appendix, page 37, Fig. 2

Appendix, page 48, table 2.

Appendix, page 38, fig. 3

Appendix, page 38

Appendix, page 40, fig. 4

Appendix, page 41, fig. 6

Appendix, page 41, fig. 7

Appendix, page 42, fig. eight

Compiled and corrected by the author based on materials

It should be noted that the greatest contribution to the increase in the population of India, which has not yet completed the demographic transition, is made by natural growth (Table 1). A similar situation is typical for both rural areas of the country and its cities. However, as one would expect, in cities - the main engines of the country's economic and cultural life - social processes are more intense than in villages. When comparing the data in Fig. 1 and 2 shows that if in "urban" India from the mid-80s. XX century. the second stage of the demographic transition has already begun, then “rural” India lags behind “urban” by at least a decade. Indeed, a more rapid decline in the total fertility rate compared to the general mortality rate has been consistently characteristic of the country's villages only since 1995. Thus, as the transition to the subsequent stages of the demographic transition, the values ​​of the natural population growth rate will increasingly decrease due to a decrease in the mortality rate. and an even more rapid decline in fertility rates.

Figure 1. Changes in the values ​​of total fertility and mortality rates in Indian cities in 1972-2009.

http://planningcommission.nic.in/data/datatable/0211/Databook_comp.pdf

The share of natural growth in the structure of the overall growth of the population of cities will be more and more inferior to the share of mechanical movement, which, upon completion of the demographic transition and the establishment of a modern type of population reproduction, will ultimately determine the nature of urban growth in India.

Figure 2. Changes in the values ​​of the total fertility and mortality rates in the villages of India in 1972-2009.

Compiled by the author based on materials

The second phase of the demographic transition in cities determined a natural slowdown in the rate of natural growth here. The practically correct shape of the pyramid in 2001 indicates a progressive age structure of the population, which, nevertheless, has a clear tendency towards stationarity (see Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Age and sex pyramid of cities in India in 2001 and 2007.

Compiled by the author based on materials

However, this picture is typical primarily for the more economically developed South of India (states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka). According to forecasts, the age and sex pyramid of cities in this region will have the shape of a bell by 2025, which indicates an even greater decline in population growth rates: South at the end of the first quarter of the 21st century. will move on to the next phase of the demographic transition, characterized by an increase in the overall mortality rate. In the cities of the North (states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand), where the organization of the family is patrilocal (a woman lives in her husband's family, often isolated from her parents, her social status is lowered) , maximizing family fertility will still be economically viable.

It is these states that are currently characterized by the lowest values ​​of the level of urbanization. The higher birth rate in the cities of the North compared to the Indian South can also be explained by the higher proportion of Muslims in the religious structure of the urban population (21.5% in the North versus 16.6% in the South): adherents of Islam - the second largest religious denomination in India - in are generally “more urban” than Hindus and have much higher fertility rates (Table 2).

Table 2. Quantitative characteristics of the adherents of the largest religions in India, 2001

	Hindus	Muslims	Christians	Sikhs
Share in the country's population,% (1991)
Share in the country's population,%
Urbanization rate,%
Share of persons under 5 years old,%
Total fertility rate
Age-specific mortality rate in cities (up to 5 years), ‰

Compiled by the author based on materials

Thus, for the period from 1991 to 2001. the share in the country's population of only adherents of one religion - Islam - has increased significantly. Muslims, in general, have higher values ​​of the level of urbanization, not only in the country as a whole, but also in individual states; only the states of West Bengal, Kerala, Assam, Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana do not obey the established pattern. Kerala, Assam and Haryana are agricultural states with a traditionally high proportion of rural residents; in Jammu and Kashmir, Muslims constitute the majority of the population of the state (both in cities and in rural areas), and therefore they are more or less evenly settled in settlements of various types; Muslim migrants from Bangladesh settle mainly in the rural areas of traditionally Hindu West Bengal.

The relatively low values ​​of the birth and death rates among Christians and Sikhs indicate a much deeper development of the processes of demographic transition with the possible establishment of a modern type in the reproduction of their population. However, this, being a kind of positive moment in the economic development of the regions of the country inhabited by Christians and Sikhs, at the same time contributes to a decrease in their share in the total population, primarily due to the intensive growth in the number of Muslims, whose communities are mainly at the earlier stages of the demographic transition. The latter are increasing their share not only in the cities of their "own" state of Jammu and Kashmir, but also in the predominantly Christian cities of the states of Manipur, Nagaland, Mizoram, as well as in most cities of the Hindu states of the North of the country. For the South, this picture is less typical, however, here too Muslims (especially in the cities of the states of Karnataka and Kerala) are slowly but surely increasing their share in the number of both the urban and rural population of the administrative-territorial entities.

In this regard, the transition from a progressive to a stationary age structure of the population (both in cities and in rural areas) will begin in the North not earlier than the second half of the 21st century. Even now, in large cities in the South of India, the share of natural increase in the structure of total population growth is extremely low. In Bangalore (Karnataka state) it does not even reach 20%; almost 50% of the population growth here is due to migration. Thus, the high share of natural increase in the total population growth of Indian cities will increasingly be supported precisely by the high birth rate in the states of the North. Nevertheless, since 2005, the total fertility rate in "urban" India has been below the replacement level of the population - 2.1 children per woman. However, the population density in cities still continues to increase, and it is due, for the most part, to natural growth. Such a contradiction, however, is easily explainable: in this case, there is a delay in the decrease in population size due to a rather high proportion of young people in the age structure of the population. At the same time, taking into account the data in Fig. 3, we can expect an increase in the urban population of the country for at least another quarter of a century. However, even later, when the role of the migration component in the increase in the urban population increases, the latter will grow, but no longer due to natural growth.

Fertility generally depends not only on the age, but also on the sex structure of the population. For India, the rate of women per 1000 men in cities is one of the lowest in the world at 926. In turn, for every 1000 women in the cities of the North in 2001, there were about 35 births per year, and in the cities of the South - 21. Thus, women in the North give birth on average 1.5-2 times more than in the South. This immediately affects their life expectancy: women in the South live 9-10 years longer. Frequent childbirth, poor health, poor quality of medical care, low social status, unwillingness to have daughters, which are considered a burden in Indian families - all this will lead to an even greater decrease in the female population relative to the male population in cities (and in rural areas) in the North of the country. ... A smaller number of women, primarily in the poorest strata of the population, which give the maximum growth - hence, fewer children are born and even more than now, the aggravation of social contradictions in Indian society: the cities of the North will have to pay such a price for the possibility of the third phase of demographic transition in the second half of the 21st v.

The second component that determines urban population growth is the migration balance. The implementation of the act of migration in the general case is determined by internal and external reasons in relation to the migrant, which are 2 groups of factors (subjective and objective, respectively) that induce a person to migrate. In this regard, one cannot but agree with the classic of Russian geography of the population B.S. Khorev, who argued that the complex of reasons prompting a person to migrate is due to territorial differences in the standard of living of the population and the needs of the individual. In most cases, the city becomes the place where human needs are realized. This situation is typical mainly for developing countries, where the differences between urban and rural areas, both in economic and social terms, are most pronounced (and India is no exception here). It is in the city that, due to the extremely high level of concentration of industry and trade here, a person can count on a fairly high wage, receiving a quality education, the opportunity to enjoy cultural entertainment, etc.

Even despite the fact that at the end of the 20th century, only one out of every three migrants came to Indian cities, the intensity of such flows is extremely high. The 3.5 million migrants who annually come to cities (mostly with a population of more than 100 thousand people) often do not fill up the population of these cities, but the population of huge slum quarters legally located outside the city limits.

Nevertheless, the intensity of migration flows to cities is by no means weakening. In this case, it is determined by the combined action of the "attractiveness factor" (determined by the city's attraction force, that is, the level of its attractiveness for potential migrants) and the "push factor" (determined by the force of pushing out potential migrants from rural areas, that is, the level of satisfaction of needs people inhabiting it). At the same time, low-skilled migrants have very little chance of getting well-paid jobs, qualified medical care and other benefits of civilization that cities can potentially provide them. Many of the migrants, failing to achieve their goals, leave their new place of residence due to the action of the “push factor” directed in the direction opposite to the cities.

However, not all migrants, whose movement is directed towards cities, actually increase the size of the urban population. Only 60% of migrants who, in the 2001 census, called themselves urban residents (55% in 1991), came from rural areas. 2/3 of them, or 40%, come from villages of their “own” state (in 1991 - 53.5%) and only 1/3, or 20% - from villages administratively related to other states of the country (in 1991 year - 1.5%). Attention is drawn to the significant increase in the share of interstate migrants in the “village-city” system over the last decade of the XX century. compared to the time interval 1981-1991, however, the geographic mobility of the Indian population is rather low. This is facilitated, first of all, by social reasons, the main of which is the caste stratification of Indian society. According to the prevailing beliefs among Hindus, the life of any of them should pass among the representatives of his caste; the implementation of inter-caste marriages is extremely difficult, each caste is engaged in the kind of activity that is prescribed to it by existing traditions. Another reason for this is the extremely low degree of one of the main determinants of the migration process in general - the survival rate of migrants belonging to the fluid stratum of new settlers. In India, every third migrant who has lived in a new place for less than 5 years leaves (to an old or more profitable place of residence for him from an economic and social point of view).

In order to assess the mobility of the population and its preferences in choosing a future place of residence, it is necessary to analyze the reasons that induce (or prompted) one or another group of the Indian population to commit the act of migration. If in the total population of migrants who chose a city as their place of residence in 1991-2001, women slightly predominate numerically (51% versus 49% of men), then when analyzing the geographical distribution of migrants by place of departure, this ratio changes. At the same time, the following pattern is observed: the closer the settlement chosen as the upcoming place of residence is to the area of ​​departure of the potential migrant, the greater the share of women in the structure of migrants. That is, men in India, all other things being equal, are ready to travel to cities and from other states, while women prefer to move mainly within the boundaries of their state. Depending on the gender of the migrant, the nature of the reasons that prompted the change of place of residence also changes: if for men the search for a job that can provide his family with a livelihood is the main incentive, then for women social reasons are highlighted - marriage and moving from family. At the same time, this pattern in India does not depend on the population size of the city to which migrants come; although there is some correlation between the reasons for men moving and the population of the city: the more the city is crowded, the more men find job search highlighted. Thus, it is in cities with a population of more than 100 thousand people that general Indian patterns are manifested in the most striking degree.

The macrocephality of Indian cities is also reflected in the distribution of migrants who come to cities, depending on the population of the latter. Thus, the 6 largest agglomerations of India in 2001 in terms of population, in which 21.1% of the total urban population of the country lived, received an average of 19.5% of all migrants heading to cities (Table 3). Attention is drawn to the low proportion of migrants arriving in Kolkata and the high proportion of those arriving in Bangalore. Kolkata, known as the "old" center of attraction for migrants, has actually exhausted its resources associated with the possibility of receiving regular migration flows, the intensity of migrations from neighboring Bangladesh has dropped sharply. Bangalore, the center of India's Silicon Valley, attracts job-seeking migrants much more than Chennai, the leading population in the South in 2001. The largest in terms of population agglomeration of India - Greater Mumbai - receives migrants mainly from other states, while all other agglomerations (with the exception of Greater Delhi, which occupies a special position) - mainly from “their own state”. Explaining such a pattern for a small area in comparison with other administrative-territorial units of Delhi is not difficult, since almost the entire population of the national capital territory is urban. Identifying the reasons that determine the ratio between migrant migrants for Greater Mumbai requires a more detailed analysis:

Table 3. The nature of migrations in the agglomeration of India with a population of more than 5 million people for the period 1991-2001.

Agglomeration	Migrants "village-city" ("city-city"), million people	Share of migrants in the total flow of migrants to the cities of the country,%	Migrants,%
			From "own" state	From other states
B. Mumbai
B. Kolkata
B. Chennai
Greater Hyderabad
B. Bangalore

Compiled by the author based on

Thus, Greater Mumbai is characterized by the following pattern (Table 4): the closer in time to the 2001 census we will analyze the category of migrants, the smaller the proportion of this category will be men (for Delhi, there is an absolutely opposite picture). Since for men, as has been shown, the main reason for migrating to cities is looking for work, therefore, the following conclusion is quite legitimate: Mumbai is losing its economic attractiveness for potential migrants and is losing its leading position in the country until recently (at least in relation to to its closest competitor - Delhi). Since both agglomerations in the structure of immigration flows are characterized by the predominance of migrants from other administrative units, and not from those in which they are located, the following development forecast looks very realistic: the pace of economic development of Mumbai will slow down in relation to its “competitor”; for Mumbai, a period of particularly intensive growth (in all respects) is coming to an end; it is for Delhi that the problem of regulating migration flows will be especially acute in the future.

Table 4. Distribution of immigrants by gender and time of arrival in the metropolitan area of ​​Mumbai and Delhi in 2001,%

	Greater Mumbai		Greater Delhi
Check-in time	men	women	men	women
Less than 1 year
1 to 4 years old
5-9 years old

Calculated and compiled by the author based on materials:

The nature of migrations in the agglomeration of the South of India differs significantly from that in Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata: in the conditions of a gradual change in the second stage of the demographic transition of the third and further formation of the supporting frame of settlement in the South, the ratio between migrants from villages and cities is increasingly decreasing, approaching an indicator equal to 1. The “push factor” from the rural areas of the North and the “attractiveness factor” of Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata are still stronger than the “push factor” of arriving migrants by these agglomerations. At the same time, the functional development of these agglomerations to some extent prevents the decrease in migration flows directed towards them. After all, the more different in terms of living conditions the city and the countryside, the higher the number of people looking for a “better lot” of poor people from rural areas in cities. In this regard, an attempt to artificially reduce migrations of the “village-city” type will clearly not be successful, but, rather, will only lead to an increase in the level of social instability. In this regard, one cannot but agree with the opinion of UN analysts, who declare that only leveling the differences in living standards in the city and rural areas can help reduce the avalanche-like flow of migrants to cities expected by developing countries in the near future.

Nevertheless, with huge absolute values, over the twenty-year period that elapsed between the population censuses of 1981 and 2001, there was a steady decline in the relative values ​​of the contribution of migration (by 0.7%) and especially natural increase (by almost 2%) to the total increase population of cities in India. At the same time, more and more new cities became in the late XX - early XXI centuries. centers of attraction for migrants, which, in turn, provide an increase in their natural growth. During the period that elapsed between the censuses of 1981 and 2001, almost 2,000 new cities arose in India, concentrating, however, only 5% of the urban population. The largest contribution to this increase was made by the states, whose centers are the largest cities in the country - West Bengal, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh. Thus, the government's measures aimed at “unloading” the centers of these states can be considered successful. An indirect confirmation of this is the sharp increase in the number of cities in the country in the first decade of the 21st century: the administrative increase amounted to more than 2,800 units, which is almost 1.5 times more than in the two previous decades. However, the movement of these states along the path of changing the number of cities on their territory over the last decade of the XX century. was multidirectional. At the same time, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal are leaders in terms of the difference between the number of abolished and created cities. This list also includes the states of Kerala and Gujarat. It is noteworthy that in the group of those administrative-territorial units of India that have lost over the last decade of the XXI century. the largest number of cities (in comparison with the number of acquired) included all the states of the more developed both in socio-economic and demographic terms, South of India (Table 5). Probably, the reason for this is the inclusion of smaller settlements in the zones of influence of larger ones.

Table 5. Changes in the number of cities in some states of India in 1991-2001.

Thus, it can be assumed that in the conditions of the demographic transition that began earlier, in the South of the country, the structure of settlement is becoming more complex, accompanied by the processes of agglomeration. The exact opposite picture is observed in Delhi and the state of Maharashtra, which are leaders in terms of the difference between the created and abolished cities. Being the two largest cities in terms of population in the country, the capitals of these administrative-territorial units over time (due to huge natural and especially mechanical growth) exhaust their possibilities to accommodate and provide with minimal means of subsistence for ever new masses of the population. The positive balance of the process of administrative transformations of urban settlements leads to an urgent need to solve the problem of concentration of the bulk of the population in Mumbai and Delhi through their deconcentration using the potential of the new cities of the state of Maharashtra and the National Capital Territory of Delhi. Thus, we can conclude that the development of natural processes of agglomeration, on the one hand, and to some extent artificial dispersal of the potential of the largest cities through the creation of “additional” smaller settlements, on the other, in India have a similar effect.

At the same time, when studying not point objects - cities, but agglomerations of settlements in India, we are faced with the problem that L.I. Bonifatiev and V.-R.L. Krishyunas. Indeed, the exact delimitation of agglomerations in this country "... is impossible due to the lack of data in Indian statistics on the commuting population and the functional structure of cities ...". If it were not for this dilemma, then the best result, as it seems, could have been given by an analysis of the development of agglomerations from the standpoint of the morphological and functional definition of the latter, put forward in the works of Soviet and Russian city scholars G.M. Lappo, E.N. Pertsik, Yu.L. Pivovarova and others.

However, when analyzing the agglomerations of India, a difficulty arises due to the low migration mobility of the country's population, as well as the lack of information in the census data on the nature of commuting. This forces us to use the term “metropolitan area”, which is close in its meaning to the concept of “agglomeration”, which, with a high population density, turn out to be almost identical. So, in India, with a minimum population of the latter of 20 thousand people, the core or at least one of the constituent cities must have the status of an "established city." At the same time, the metropolitan area in India can also consist of one city (city or town), however, it is necessary to have one or more suburban areas associated with it in a functional and / or cultural sense.

It should be noted, however, that for the largest cities in the country, of course, the number of the core of the metropolitan area significantly exceeds the established value of 20 thousand inhabitants. At the same time, despite the rather high values ​​of the growth rates of the population of the main cities, the zone adjacent to the core often grows even faster. And this applies, first of all, to the country's largest metropolitan areas: their core is cities with a population of more than 2 million people, the number of which, according to the 2011 census, is 13.

Table 6. Average annual population growth rates of the largest metropolitan areas of India in 1991-2001.

Agglomeration	Average annual population growth rate (1991-2001), %
	Core	Adjacent area
Bangalore
Ahmedabad
Hyderabad

Calculated and compiled by the author according to

Indicated in table. 6 the largest in terms of population metropolitan areas concentrate in themselves about a third of the total urban population of the country and are mainly the centers of the administrative-territorial units of India of the first rank (including the Capital Territory of Delhi). However, some states are characterized by a wider development of the upper floors of the population structure of settlement than others: in Maharashtra, in addition to the administrative center, there are two more areas with a population of more than 2 million people (in the immediate vicinity of Mumbai - Pune, as well as in the eastern part of the state - Nagpur). A similar situation is also observed in the states of Gujarat (areas of Ahmedabad and Surat) and Uttar Pradesh (representing, in fact, a single conurbation of areas of Lucknow and Kanpur).

Thus, two peculiar rays of an increased number of the largest metropolitan areas extend from the capital of the country: the first - in the direction of Mumbai and Pune to Bangalore (due to the high level of economic development) and the second - to Kanpur and Lucknow (due to the extremely high population in the corresponding administrative-territorial units). This pattern, based on the analysis of statistical data, is also confirmed by cartographic materials. The consequence of such a distribution will be the formation of common (socialized) spaces for some of them on the basis of the country's transport routes. Thus, it is legitimate to talk about the course of suburban processes in the territory of modern India.

At the same time, the possible development of the latter will lead to the need to reorganize real estate in the cores of agglomerations in the context of its functional reorientation. In particular, this situation will be typical for the largest metropolitan areas of the country with a population of more than 5 million people, which can become (and some are already) a kind of "condensation nuclei", which, concentrating huge human resources, contribute to the development of science-intensive industries here as well as service industries. Earlier, the “decline of the era” of labor-intensive sectors of the economy that did not require highly qualified specialists began in the South of India with its later stage of demographic transition. In a temporary sense, the leader here was Chennai, which, however, is now increasingly yielding its dominant position to Hyderabad and especially to Bangalore. The latter is the largest center of the country's soft-industry and is currently the second largest GDP growth rate in the metropolitan area of ​​India - 11.5% since the 2001 census.

However, such achievements could not be provided only by a large number of the population living within the boundaries of these areas. A significant part of qualified specialists either received their education at the universities of Bangalore, Hyderabad and Chennai, or came here from neighboring districts and states. So, analyzing the composition of migration flows directed towards Bangalore and Hyderabad, we find that the main purpose of the arrival of migrants living within the areas formed on their basis was family circumstances (most often - the wife's moving to her husband living here) and getting a job. ... However, for migrants who are urban dwellers, education and commercial activities are highlighted.

However, migration flows to India's largest areas differ in their contribution to their overall population growth.

As you can see from the table. 7, it is the migration growth that is most important for the population growth in the agglomerations of the South of the country. Bangalore, Chennai and Hyderabad are examples of relatively new centers for which the ratio of the factors of “attractiveness” and “repulsion” seems to be the most optimal at this stage of development of productive forces when attracting migrants from other regions of the country.

Table 7. The ratio of natural and migratory growth in the total growth of the urban population of the largest metropolitan areas in India

Compiled by the author based on

A similar situation is typical for the country's capital, Delhi, which, as shown above, has the greatest attractiveness for migrants in comparison with Mumbai and Kolkata. The latter is still growing due to migration growth, but this situation is, rather, an exception. The intensity of migration flows from Bangladesh to India, of course, is no longer as high as during the partition of British India and later Pakistan, but West Bengal, with its capital in Kolkata, is still experiencing demographic pressure from neighboring Bangladesh. In the absence of such a phenomenon, the ratio between natural and migratory growth in Kolkata and Mumbai should be very similar. Mumbai is losing its attractiveness for potential migrants in comparison with its "competitor" - Delhi. At the same time, the zone adjacent to the core of the Delhi metropolitan area is growing clearly faster than the capital of the country. According to the forecasts of demographers, Faridabad and Ghaziabad, which are, in fact, part of the Delhi area, for the period from 2006 to 2020. according to the values ​​of the indicator of the average annual population growth rates, they will occupy the eighth and second places in the world ranking, respectively.

Nevertheless, the growth of the zones adjacent to the core of Delhi is by no means uniform. This also applies, in general, to the supra-agglomeration structure allocated on the territory of India, the development of which takes place along the Amritsar - Delhi - Agra line. The main role in this process is played by the southeastern vector with a direction to the main cities of Uttar Pradesh - Agra, as well as further Kanpur and Lucknow.

Mumbai, in comparison with Delhi, has slightly limited growth prospects in terms of the territorial aspect, which is primarily due to its geographical position on the coast. This is confirmed by the comparable values ​​of the values ​​of the average annual growth rates of the population of the core and the adjacent zone of Mumbai. In this regard, the main directions of growth of the Mumbai metropolitan area are the north and south-southeast towards the southern mega-region of the country that is being formed along the Bangalore - Coymputur - Madurai line.

Such a large-scale development of the supra-agglomeration structure based on Mumbai in comparison with that for Delhi (with less favorable territorial prerequisites for the first of them) is explained, first of all, by the role of these cities in the formation of the country's economy. Mumbai has firmly established itself as a "gateway to India" since the time of the British East India Company, while the heyday of modern Delhi began only with the transfer of the capital here from Kolkata (then Calcutta) in 1911-1912. In this regard, given the "temporary gain" of Mumbai, the development of the Delhi metropolitan area is "catching up".

Thus, in fact, we observe the following pattern: the earlier the process of urbanization began within any territory (in this case, when considering metropolitan areas, we mean the time of their inclusion in active economic activity throughout the country), the greater the importance in the structure the growth of its population will be played by a natural component. Taking into account the recommendations put forward in the analysis of the growth rate of individual parts of the country's largest agglomerations, it should be noted that for the "older" centers - Mumbai, Kolkata and to some extent Delhi - in the near future, the problem of regulating migration flows directed to these agglomerations will not have of decisive importance. However, if for Mumbai and Kolkata it will be quite natural in the near future to decrease the population of the core, then for Delhi this situation will take place somewhat later. Nevertheless, at this stage of development of Indian society, the growth of the population of cities and metropolitan areas will continue. It will be carried out in several different directions, but in the future it is the zone adjacent to the core that will become the concentration of the bulk of the population. In this regard, the problem of implementing state programs to provide suburban areas of the country's largest areas with the necessary conditions for living there for the poor is especially acute, who will choose these territories as their place of residence as the process of urbanization in India develops "in breadth" and "in depth".

(date of access: 18.06.2012). Gorokhov S.A., Dmitriev R.V. Paradoxes of urbanization of modern India // Geography in school. 2009. No. 2. S. 17-23; No. 3, pp. 24-28.
Dmitriev R.V. Mechanical movement as the most important factor in changing the population of the territorial formations of India // Organization of the territory: statics, dynamics, management: materials of the V All-Russian scientific-practical conference / BSPU im. M. Akmulla, Bashstat, Ufa Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences. - Ufa, BSPU, 2008 .-- 140 p.
Dmitriev R.V. The influence of migrations on the change in the population of territorial entities of modern India // collection of articles. scientific works of the Faculty of Geography. - M .: MPGU, 2007 .-- 84 p.
Bhagat R.B. Urban Growth by City and Town Size in India. - Mumbai: International Institute for Population Size, 2005
Martin D., Deligiorgis D., Fuersich K. et al. World Population 2007. Harnessing the Potential of Urbanization. Report of the United Nations Population Fund. - New York, 2007
N. K., Kulkarni S., Raghavaswamy V. Economy, Population and Urban Sprawl. A Comparative Study of Urban Agglomerations of Bangalore and Hyderabad. Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques. - Nairobi, 2007. - P. 21-22
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In the same place

Topic 3. Calculation of general, natural and mechanical

Total population growth is the difference between the population at the end of the billing period and the beginning of the billing period.

H pr. = H 1 - H 0

Population growth can be positive if H 1 H 0 and negative if H 1 0.

The total population growth is subdivided into two components:

1. Natural population growth;

2. Mechanical population growth

Natural population growth is the difference between the number of births and the number of people who died during the same period or at a specific point in time, ᴛ.ᴇ. it is the difference between fertility and mortality rates.

He eats. = H genus. - H mind.

Mechanical population growth is the difference between the number of people who have arrived in the city and the number of people who have left the city at a particular point in time.

Mechanical population growth reflects the process of population migration and can also be both positive and negative.

N fur. = H approx. - N ub.

Issues related to the definition of natural and mechanical population growth, the characteristics of migration processes in the territory of a city, a constituent entity of the Russian Federation or the country as a whole are of great socio-economic importance for the integrated development of branches of the national economy and the creation of favorable and comfortable living conditions for the population. enia.

Table 17.

Population growth distribution of the city

natural and mechanical.

Below are examples of solving typical tasks for determining population growth and its structure.

In the structure of employment of the city's population, the non-self-employed population is 130 thousand people, and the self-employed population of the city makes up 60% of the total urban population. To calculate for a five-year perspective, natural population growth of 4 people per 1000 inhabitants and mechanical growth were adopted: the first two years - 2 thousand people each, the next three years - 3 thousand people each. Determine the population size of the city for a five-year perspective, divide the population growth into natural and mechanical by the years of the forecast period.

1) Determine the total population at the end of the five-year period.

N non-samod. = 130 thousand people

H samod. = 60%

On the basis of these conditions, it is possible to draw up a consolidated structure of employment of the population.

3) Calculation of natural population growth.

He eats. = thousand people

The calculation is carried out for each next year.

He eats. = 6.6 thousand people N fur. = 13 thousand people

4) Determine the overall population growth of the city.

N pr. = 344.6 - 325 = 19.6 thousand people.

The absolute number of the population employed in the urban services of the city is 180 thousand people, or 20% of the total population of the city. For the calculation for a five-year perspective, the following population growth is assumed:

Natural increase - 10 people per 1000 inhabitants;

Mechanical growth - 5 thousand people annually.

Determine the size of the population for a five-year perspective with the division of population growth into natural and mechanical by the years of the five-year plan.

1) Determine the population size at the end of the forecast period.

H 1 = thousand people

2) Divide the population growth into natural and mechanical by the years of the forecast period.

3) Determine the natural population growth.

He eats. = thousand people

The calculation is carried out for each year of the forecast period.

The population of the city at the beginning of the forecast period is 300 thousand people. The average annual population growth rate is 2% and remains stable for the next ten years. To calculate for the future, natural population growth is assumed at the rate of 5 people per 1000 inhabitants. Mechanical population growth is distributed over the years of the forecast period as follows: in the first six years - 4 thousand people each, the next four years - 5 thousand people each.

1) Calculation of the population size of the city at the end of the forecast period.

H 1 = 300 thousand people

2) Distribution of population growth by natural and mechanical over the years of the forecast period.

Tasks for self-study of the issues of this topic.

Task 3.1.

The population of the city in the base period is 360 thousand people. According to the plans for the development of the city-forming sphere, the number of employees in it at the end of the prospective period is 125 thousand people, or 30% of the total population of the city. According to statistical data, the natural population growth per 1000 inhabitants is 4 people. Mechanical population growth is taken in the second and third years for 2 thousand people, in the fourth and fifth - for 3 thousand people, from the sixth to the ninth year inclusively for 5 thousand people, in the tenth - six thousand people.

Determine the predicted population size of the city and divide the population growth into natural and mechanical by the years of the forecast period.

Task 3.2.

The active population of the city is 260 thousand people, the non-active population makes up 40% of the total urban population. To calculate for the long term (10 years), the natural population growth is assumed at the level of the previously formed 5 people per 1000 inhabitants. Mechanical population growth is accepted: from the first to the fifth years inclusive - 3 thousand people, from the sixth to the tenth year - 5 thousand people.

Determine the size of the city's population at the end of the forecast period, dividing by years of population growth into natural and mechanical.

Task 3.3.

The absolute number of people employed in the urban services sector of the city is 180 thousand people, or 20% of the total population of the city. For the calculation for a five-year perspective, the following population growth is assumed:

Natural increase - 5 people per 1000 inhabitants;

Mechanical growth in the first three years - 1.5 thousand people, the next two years - 3 thousand people.

Determine the population growth of the city at the end of the fifth year, dividing it into natural and mechanical by years of the forecast period.

Task 3.4.

In the city-forming sphere of the city, 150 thousand people are employed, and in the city-serving sphere - 80 thousand people. The non-self-employed part of the population makes up 45% of the total population of the city. To calculate for a five-year perspective, the following population growth was adopted: natural - 5 people per 1000 inhabitants and mechanical - 2 thousand people annually. Determine the planned population of the city at the end of the five-year plan, dividing it into natural and mechanical growth.

Task 3.5.

The absolute number of city-forming cadres is 150 thousand people. In the total number of the urban population, the share of urban service personnel and the non-self-employed part of the population is 65%. To calculate for a five-year perspective, the following population growth was adopted: natural - 3 people per 1000 inhabitants and mechanical growth - 6 thousand people annually.

Determine population growth at the end of the five-year plan and distribute it to natural and mechanical weather of the forecast period.

Task 3.6.

The absolute number of people employed in the urban service sector of the city is 210 thousand people, or 25% of the total population of the city. To calculate for a five-year perspective, the following population growth was adopted: natural - 8 people per 1000 inhabitants, mechanical - 3.6 thousand people annually.

Determine the population size for a five-year perspective and divide the population growth into natural and mechanical by the years of the forecast period.

Task 3.7.

The non-self-employed population of the city includes 230 thousand people, and the self-employed population of the city makes up 60% of the total population. To calculate for a ten-year perspective, natural population growth is assumed - 5 people per 1000 inhabitants and mechanical population growth (for the first five years - 4 thousand people and for the next 5 years - 8 thousand people).

Determine the population size of the city for a ten-year perspective with the division of population growth by years into natural and mechanical.

Task 3.8.

The self-employed population of the city is 380 thousand people. The non-self-employed population makes up 40% of the total population of the city. To calculate for the future, natural population growth of 6 people per 1000 inhabitants and mechanical growth (the first five years - 4.5 thousand people each and the next five years - 7 thousand people each) are accepted.

Determine the population growth of the city at the end of the tenth year, broken down into natural and mechanical.

Task 3.9.

270 thousand people are employed in the city-forming sphere of the city, and 120 thousand people are employed in the city-serving sphere. the non-self-employed part of the city's population makes up 40% of the total population of the city.

To calculate for a ten-year perspective, the following population growth was adopted: natural - 4 people per 1000 inhabitants and mechanical - in the first five years, 2 thousand people, in the second five years - 4 thousand people.

Determine the population growth of the city at the end of the tenth year, dividing it into natural and mechanical.

Task 3.10.

The population of the city in the base period is 420 thousand people. According to the data on the development of the branches of the city-forming sphere, the number of those working in them at the end of the forecast period will be 150 thousand, or 30% of the total population of the city. According to statistical data, the natural population growth per 1000 inhabitants is 4 people. Mechanical population growth by years is distributed as follows: the second and third years - 1.5 thousand each, the fourth and fifth - 3 thousand people each, from the sixth to the ninth inclusive - 4.7 thousand people and the tenth year - 2.3 thousand human.

Determine the population growth of the city by years of the forecast period.

"Determination of the demographic situation and features of demographic policy in different countries and regions"

Objectives of the work:

Educational: to systematize knowledge about demographic policy in countries with different types of reproduction;

Developing: to develop the ability to systematize the knowledge gained from various sources of geographic information, to organize, evaluate and correct their own activities;

Educational: bring up responsibility, hard work, accuracy.

The list of tools used in the performance of work: political map of the world, age-sex pyramids, atlas, textbook "Economic and social geography of the world."

Basic theoretical information:

Reproduction of the population is the cumulative process of fertility, mortality, natural population growth, which ensures the continuous renewal of the change of human generations. In the modern world, 2 types of population reproduction can be distinguished. Type 1 has a low birth rate, mortality and natural population growth, Type 2 characterized by high birth rates, high natural population growth and relatively low mortality rates.

Currently, there is a gradual transition from 2 to 1 type of population reproduction.

In the modern world, most countries seek to manage population reproduction by pursuing a certain demographic policy.

Demographic policy is a system of various measures taken by the state with the aim of influencing the natural movement of the population in the direction it desires.

Stages of work:

Exercise 1... Using the textbook Maksakovsky V.P. (pp. 57 - 66 and the statistics of Table 1 (see below), fill it in, specifying the type of reproduction and demographic stage for each region;

Table 1 - The main indicators of population reproduction by regions of the world.

Regions of the world	Fertility rate (‰)	Mortality rate (‰)	Natural growth rate (‰)	Reproduction type	Demographic stage
The whole world
CIS			-1
Overseas Europe
Overseas asia
Southwest Asia
East Asia
Africa
North America
Latin America
Australia
Oceania

Assignment 2... Describe the demographic situation in India and Germany according to the following plan:

Record the population, average density, and the most densely populated areas in the country.

Draw the most densely populated areas on a contour map.

Determine the features of natural and mechanical population growth in the country.

Determine the characteristics of the age and gender composition of the population in the country.

Determine and record the peculiarity of employment, the proportion of urban and rural population.

Determine the security of the country with labor resources.

Formulate a conclusion about the demographic policy pursued by the states of India and Germany.

For each individual country, the total population can change due to two factors:

· Natural movement (fertility and mortality);

· Migration (mechanical) movement.

However, not only the total population is changing, but also the composition.

The processes of fertility and mortality, which ensure natural population growth, as well as the processes of marriage and divorce, are called natural population movements. And the movement of the population across the borders of the country and its territorial subdivisions, associated with a change of place of residence for a more or less long period, is called migration (or mechanical) movement.

The processes of natural and migratory movement are very complex, massive, continuous processes that depend on the socio-economic conditions of life. They are extremely important in the process of population reproduction, in the life of the whole society. To characterize these processes in statistics, a whole system of absolute, relative and average indicators has been developed and used.

The initial characteristics of the natural and migration movement of the population are absolute values. The absolute numbers of births and deaths, marriages and divorces, arrivals and departures are derived from current accounting data.

The absolute indicators of the vital movement of the population are the number of births (synonyms: the number of live births or the number of live births, N; the number of deaths M; natural population growth ∆е; the number of registered marriages; the number of registered divorces.

If the number of births exceeds the number of deaths, the natural increase is positive, and if the number of deaths is greater than the number of births, the natural increase is negative, i.e. the balance can be positive (mechanical population growth) and negative.

The absolute indicators of the migration movement of the population are the number of arrivals (immigrants) to a given settlement and the number of those who left.

Absolute indicators of population movement are interval indicators, they are calculated for certain periods of time, for example, for a month, for a year, etc. The annual numbers of the events studied are of the greatest importance.

The intensity of migration and emigration, as well as the relative change in the number, is defined as the ratio of these indicators to the average population, multiplied by 1000.

Wherein natural growth calculated by the formula

A mechanical gain according to the formula

where is the number of births;

The number of deaths;

Number of arrivals;

The number of dropped out;

Natural growth.

Then the total absolute growth is calculated by the formula:

Relative indicators are also calculated for these values, called coefficients.

Fertility rate per 1000 people is determined by the formula:

where is the number of children born;

Average population.

Mortality rate per 1000 people is calculated as

where M is the number of people who have died.

Marriage rate

Natural growth rate determined by the formula:

or is equal to the difference between the fertility rate and the death rate:

Mechanical gain coefficient population is determined by the formula

.

Natural population growth determined by the formula:

Population vitality rate(Pokrovsky) is calculated by the formula:

shows how many newborns are there for one deceased.