New 2018 We met with fairly disappointing figures regarding the course of the domestic currency to the dollar. It is sad that there is no objective reasons to hope for changing the existing state of affairs, as the world oil prices from which the stability of the monetary unit of Russia largely depends, continue to fall. This situation worries many of our compatriots. Let's find out the main position of experts on what the ruble is waiting in 2018.

Conclusions of domestic experts

Russian experts do not have an unequivocal forecast. Some believe that the national currency will continue to continue the rapid fall, that is, the real collapse of the ruble in 2018 will occur until 200 rubles. For the dollar, and others, on the contrary, talk about stabilization.

Alexey Kudrin is a famous Russian economist who had previously served as Minister of Finance, believes that the ruble exchange rate, as well as global oil prices, have not yet spoken bottom. The devaluation of the ruble in 2018 will continue. Moreover, he suggests that the period of the economic crisis in which Russia is located, will be delayed at least ten years. Then it will be only worse:

Note! Of all the forex brokers working in the territory of the Russian Federation, the criteria of a really high-quality company satisfy few. The leader is - Alpari!

More than 20 years in the Forex market;
- 3 international licenses;
- 75 instruments;
- fast and convenient withdrawal;
- more than two million customers;
- free education;
Alpari is a broker number 1 according to Interfax! All you need to start - just register on the site!

• stagnation of the economy;
• zero or negative GDP growth;
• inflation;
• reducing the standard of living of the population;
• the collapse of the currency of Russia.

The forecast is very depressing, but we will not forget that this is only one opinion.

Vladimir Tikhomirov - a domestic economist, who in 2016 declared that the stabilization of the Russian currency course is a temporary phenomenon. He predicted a further fall of the ruble by the end of 2016, but his forecast was not justified. Now let's see how long it will be right.

Nikolai Solabuto - is the head of a large financial company and is configured even more pessimistic. His forecast of the fall of the Russian currency may cause shock in some of our compatriots. Nikolai Solabutu believes that the dollar rate will reach the mark of 200 rubles. Such a catastrophic devaluation is connected with a further decrease in the cost of oil.

Minister A. Ulyukayev, as the official representative of the Russian government, the predest in 2018, stabilization of the course of the domestic currency at the level of 63.5 r. / Dollars. Against the background of most other statements, this option does not seem too negative.

However, some Russian experts retain optimism. They believe that the dollar rate may return to the mark of 37 p. per unit of US currency. In particular, such opinions adhere to the well-known Russian financiers Stanislav Kleschikov and Dmitry Savchenko. But in their opinion, it will be possible only subject to the removal of sanctions from Russia and stabilizing the cost of oil.

Forecasts of foreign agencies

Leading foreign experts and agencies also do not show the unanimity of forecasts.

According to experts from the EBRD, in 2018, the devaluation of the ruble will continue, although they are not called the specific amount of fall. And this situation, they bind not so much with the collapse of the cost of oil, as with a number of financial factors:

• outflow of investments from the country's economy;
• an increase in the size of internal lending banks;
• restricting the access of financial institutions to foreign loans due to sanctions.

Bank of America, as one of the largest banks of America, gave more specifics in his words. Bank analysts believe that the ruble exchange rate stabilizes at about 60 r. / Dollars. But we should not forget that this forecast of the ruble fall was made back in 2016.

Citigroup agency specialists expressed the opinion that in 2018 the minimum value of the ruble will be about 57 rubles / dollars. But this is possible only with the most risky scenario for the Russian economy.

Agence APECON declares that by the end of 2018 the ruble stabilizes at 74 rubles / dollar. Although during the year it will drop up to 100 r. per unit of US currency.

Note! Unlike Russian experts who have both positive and negative developments of events, most foreign agencies consider only pessimistic and extremely pessimistic scenarios relating to the ruble course.

What is waiting for the domestic currency?

As you can see, domestic and foreign experts do not have a single point of view regarding the fate of the ruble. At the same time, it should be noted that most of them suggest further fall of the Russian national currency. Their devaluation forecasts differ significantly only in determining the specific borders of the collapse.

Regular citizens remain only to believe in the best, as well as possess current information so that it was possible to adjust on any oscillations of the financial market in time.

So it happened in the economy, that growth early or later ends, and the decline begins after him. A strong ruble that was held over the previous year in the spring of 2018 can start falling. However, elections here play a much smaller role, rather than economic factors. Immediately several major media published negative predictions, predicting that our currency will see 10% in March, and by the end of the year it can be given a mark of 70-75 rubles per dollar, or even lower. At the same time, there are several reasons for this, and both internal and external.

The oil course will fall again

The PLEDER edition writes that in 2018, analysts do not expect anything good from oil prices. Donald Trump abolished bans on the extraction of crude oil and began selling petroleum products and shale oil to China. Saudi Arabia is also trying to catch up with a competitor. All this leads to the fact that oil prices begin to decline again, and it is possible that an OPEC agreement, which in 2016 literally saved our economy, will lose its strength. As is known, low oil prices immediately affect the ruble exchange rate, since oil and gas receipts are the basis of our budget. It is worth noting that oil prices have already gone to a decline - it can be traced since February of this year, when prices fell from 69 to 65 dollars per barrel of Brent oil barrel.

Forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development

Reducing the ruble rate is waiting for the Ministry of Economic Development. It is expected that the course after the election will lose 10% with respect to current levels, while the average annual rate will rise to 68 rubles per dollar. In addition, our officials have repeatedly noted that the current course is unprofitable for our import substitution and, ideally, it should achieve at least 60-62 rubles per dollar. It is possible that after the election, the ruble will cease to be artificially supported and will be released.

Investors will lose interest in Carry Trade

Over the past last year, the Central Bank reduced the key rate, as a result of which it reached 7.5%. This reduces interest in ruble tools and contributes to the outflow of foreign speculators of Kerry traders, which invested money in Russian governmentobaliations. Nevertheless, last year they provided the main support of the ruble, which was confirmed even in the Central Bank, but in 2018 such support may not be.

The Ministry of Finance buys a lot of currency

The head of the Ministry of Finance Anton Siluanov said that since 2018, the Russian authorities at times will increase the currency purchased on the market. 18% of all incomes of the federal budget will be invested in dollars (15.26 trillion rubles), and only for one period from January 15 to February 6, 257 billion rubles will be spent on these purposes. It is expected that such speculations will put pressure on the ruble and not to give it to grow.

The Ministry of Finance began in 2017 to acquire currency for additional incomes for absorbing excess liquidity and reduce the dependence of the Russian economy from hydrocarbons. The currency is purchased in a proportion of 45% of dollars, 45% of the euro and 10% of pounds, subsequently funds go to replenishment of the statements.

There is a point of view that the Ministry of Finance, by purchasing so much currency prepares for speculation, and this can become an information reason so that private investors are accepted the same way.

American sanctions

The United States is all the time threatening to expand the sanctions against Russia. The most terrible option is a ban on the purchase of Russian government securities, with the result that most investors will have to abandon ruble investments. Recently, the US authorities officially stated that they do not plan to do this, because then the American investors will lose themselves. However, many adhere to the opinions that such a ban is only a matter of time, therefore any negative news about new sanctions is capable of instantly digging the currency market and noticeably reduce the ruble exchange rate.

At the moment, many experts in the economy worries a rapid decline in the ruble exchange rate. It is the weakening of the positions of the Russian currency that is a potential threat not only for the solvency of the ordinary resident of Russia, but also for the state economy as a whole. For this reason, many worries the question of what to wait in 2017 and what will be the consequences.

At the moment, in comparison with the previous years, the ruble was somewhat stabilized. So rapid drop in its course, as in 2014 is not observed. But at the same time, the collapse of the ruble in 2017 is rather predicted for a number of reasons:

• a significant strengthening of sanctions that were superimposed by many countries to Russia, negatively affect the course of the national currency;
• the rapid drop in oil prices in the global market. It is the extraction of oil that served as the main source of coverage of the lack of the state budget. Now it is predicted even greater depreciation. And if in the near future oil production will not cut throughout the world, then the trend will be observed negative as a whole;
• the total fall in the level of economic development of the country. Here it is understood that many state-owned enterprises are currently in poor condition, which is risked by destabilize whole sectors of the economy.

This fact can be expected due to the lack of concrete actions by the government. This is due to the fact that it would be to some extent useful for the economy now, as it would prevent more serious consequences for the situation in the country.

Perspectives for Russia

Usually, any depreciation of the national currency is regarded as a negative trend for the country's economy. Indeed, it may largely lead to poor consequences, especially if the inflation rate exceeds 20-25% per year.

But, on the other hand, many experts consider the devaluation of the Russian ruble as the only option of saving the country from a possible default. To understand this paradox, you should consider in more detail the circumstances today.

The state economy now has negative prospects due to the fact that the revenues of the state budget cannot cover its costs. Too much of social subsidies, indexing pensions - the state budget is not able to cover all these costs. That is why devaluation can become the only salvation of the country from the default.

Such a tendency could already be observed in 2014. Then the government was forced to keep the fall of the ruble rate to prevent more devastating consequences.

Now the ruble predicted the collapse on the 2014 scenario - the course may even be declared artificially in order to reduce the deficit of the state budget, as well as to reduce the internal debt of the country.

Methods stabilization

The first thing was done to stabilize the exchange rate - an increase in the accounting rate up to 17%. But it did not give such essential results that
Could fully correct the situation. That is why it is necessary to make more significant measures to prevent further fall in the ruble against the dollar.

Without the aid of the state, the ruble is waiting for the rapid collapse of the course. If the government decides to abandon such a scenario, it is necessary to take a number of measures to stabilize the exchange rate. The main methods of such changes in the trend in the currency market include:

1. Reducing the offer of the ruble. The demand curve and supply is valid for absolutely any product according to the laws of the economy. Money is also to some extent a product that is sold and bought. The smaller the Russian rubles will be in circulation - the higher the course will be raised. To do this, you should even more raise the discount rate for private banks, as well as obligate them to tighten the rules for providing credit funds to individuals.
2. Use currency reserves. At the moment, the reserves of the Russian Federation are not so significant to allow the problem to fully solve. But at least temporarily will change the situation for the better.
3. Trade. If there is a rapid drop in the national currency exchange rate, then the state should be sent to export its products. At the same time imports should be reduced. Since, because of the common sanctions, foreign trade is still low, then it is necessary to additionally focus on expanding exports to the countries with which the Russian Federation continues to be active trading. Even the decline in some taxes in general will benefit from such a trade.
4. Foreign currency. To normalize the balance of payments, it is necessary to eliminate the foreign currency deficit.
5. Subsidies. Although many politicians are afraid of such cardinal steps, but often this is the only chance to save the economy from total fall. The Russian government has provided too many subsidies and payments that fell forward to the state budget. Because of this, a colossal deficit arises.

If earlier it was able to cover the income from the sale of oil, then against the background of the rapid fall in the prices of petroleum products, it became nothing to compensate for this article. It is for this reason that it is necessary to cancel a significant part of social payments as soon as possible or reduce them.

Do not fear the social explosion. If the cancellation of subsidies will affect only certain categories of the population, then default against the background of hyperinflation or a significant increase in taxes to cover the deficit will affect each, which will lead to more negative consequences for the government. Cancellation of subsidies will not only reduce the budget deficit, but also reduce the amount of the money supply of the ruble in the turnover, thereby reducing its proposal and enhancing demand.

It is important to note that all these measures should be applied only comprehensively. The introduction of one or two although it will allow something to fix, but only slightly and for a short time.

Opinion experts

According to the analytical reasoning of many experts on the topic, whether the collapse of the ruble will be, to the end to predict anything too early. With confidence you can only say one thing: the falls of the national currency cannot be avoided if you leave everything as it is. The course is broken in free swimming is doomed to the rapid drop.

The only thing that can affect the situation is to increase oil prices in the stock market until the previous level. But it is unlikely to hope for it. At the moment, there is no positive trend in terms of reducing oil production in the world. Therefore, it is very important that the government makes the course to stabilize the ruble as quickly as possible. If this is not done, then the collapse cannot be avoided. As mentioned earlier, it can largely play on the hand to the state as a whole, but still it will largely undermine many budget generation sectors.

That is why, still it is worth sending the strength to solve the problem. In the long run, the fall of the ruble is not profitable. If this helps, it is only to solve current issues, but in the future it will stabilize the course will be much more complicated than to hold it at the normal level.

Hello, dear readers of the Financial Journal "Site"! Today we will try to give answers to questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much will cost the ruble and dollar in 2019; When the crisis is over in Russia and so on.

After all, today's economic situation causes excitement among Russian citizens of its total instability . The stability of the national currency causes concerns, because all people are worried about the well-being of their own family, some confuse the rise in prices for essential products. Many people retain money in rubles and worry about their savings.

Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, students, and pensioners concerned about the question: what will happen to the ruble / dollar in the near future?No one can give an accurate response to these questions, even experienced analysts are not solved on specific predictions.

Some experts say that our currency gradually strengthened, others, on the contrary, advise to wait for the rules to fall. Which of them is right? People are puzzled and looking for answers to these questions.

So, from this article you will learn:

• What will happen to the dollar in the near future;
• What will happen to the ruble and what will be the ruble exchange rate + forecast of the dollar for 2019;
• What will happen to the ruble in the near future - the latest news + our forecasts at the Rubble.

Reading the material to the end You will learn our vision according to the forecast of the ruble and dollar.

Want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, which will be with the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end

1. What will happen to the ruble of 2019 - scenarios and forecasts + expert opinions 📊

Everyone knows well that the course of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. Sanctions that conduct Western countries also affect the formation of national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2019, even focusing on the policy of the work of the Central Bank.

The motive of entering sanctions against Russia was political actions in Ukraine, the beginning of which was laid in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. Due to which one part of the population began to resist. The first of their resistance began to express residents of the Crimean Peninsula.

The autonomous republic made the desire to exit from unitary Ukraine. So, B. 2014. A referendum was held who collected more 83 % votes For disconnecting from Ukraine and further addition of the peninsula to the Federation, as a subject.

The international community, headed by the United States, considered the accession of the peninsula to Russia to the consequence military Actions and act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the inhabitants of the Crimea want themselves Disconnect from Ukraine.

As known, October 14, 2014, Consional candidates for the European Union, joined the anti-Russian sanctions introduced by Brussels. These sanctions limit the access of Russian banks to world capital. They also influenced the restriction of the work of such industries of Russia as oil and avioratories.

In particular, restrictions relate to such companies in the oil and gas industry of Russia:

• Rosneft;
• "Transneft";
• Gazpromneft.

Due to the actions of sanctions, such Russian banks have fallen:

• "Sberbank of Russia";
• "VTB";
• Gazprombank;
• "VEB";
• Rosselkhozbank.

The sanctions did not go around the industry of the Russian Federation:

• "Uralvagonzavod";
• "Oboronprom";
• "United Aircraft Corporation".

Sanctions are to prohibit residents of the European Union and their companies to perform operations with securities whose validity period more than 30 days , Help Russia in the extraction of oil products.

In addition, the Russians are prohibited operations with European accounts, investments, securities and even consultation European companies. Also, the European Union has banned Russia technologies, equipment and intellectual property (programs, development) that can be used in the defense or civil industry.

Introduced sanctionsagainst some Russian companies that were prohibited to supply goods, services and technologies of special purpose in the European Union.

The limitations touched on many officials who are forbidden to use their assets placed in any of the European Union countries, not to mention the entry into the EU territory, which is also prohibited.

Canada introduced such sanctions. Citizens who were in the restrictive list of this country are forbidden to visit it, guided by any goals, and all assets posted on the territory of the country are frozen. Also companies that have fallen under sanctions, Canadian companies do not have the right to provide financing for more than 30 days.

Sanctions introduced by the US authorities Provide, first of all, supplies to the territory of Russia technologies, programs to support the military forces of Russia. Also, sanctions touched the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.

Now Russia is prohibited by using spacecraft, in the development of which the US forces participated, as well as the components of which include elements, are developed by the state. Due to this ban, Russia could not launch the ASTRA 2G apparatus.

America banned to issue the list of Russian banks credit for more than 90 days .
All sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on the entry of the authorized list of persons to the territory of the country, freezing their assets located in the state, the ban of Russia to participate in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade, economic relationship among companies, banks etc.

As you can see, the imposed sanctions is good hit in economics and the development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something, for the normal functioning of the country and the stabilization of the economy?

Some experts express their opinion on the actions from Russia to cancel sanctions, or prevent their tightening.

First of all, it is recommended to show a refusal to support militia in the Donbas. It is clear that the Crimea will no longer be Ukrainian, but hiding refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.

Russia needs to take a neutral position and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. Response sanctions of Russia, the European Union introduces response bans. Moreover, the EU and the US levers are more than Russia.

Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet introduced sanctions against the federation, thereby establishing their economic ties with them. This primarily concerns middle East countries .

Correcting, you can produce joint bonds, investment projects. This is understood by the Russian authorities themselves, but the decisive steps do not yet do.

Moreover, such a friendly policy with the countries of Asia will help Russia establish your export. Trade in oil products is now low, and all due to prohibitions and sanctions.

The expansion of oil and natural gas supplies will help Russia with time to achieve the share of the national currency stabilization.

No side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid of turning Ukraine, in the so-called black pit, at its own center. And at the same time, no one wants the final gap with Moscow.

In this situation, it would be nice if Russia had made a compromise that would have played undoubtedly a role. It is not worth to wait for such actions from the US government, "flashed under Russia, Trump finally lost its rating, which is not at the highest level.

What will happen to the ruble and with the dollar in the near future - analysis and opinions of experts

2. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen with the ruble in 2019 📈📉

In recent years, the course of the national currency of Russia fell more, than 20%. There has not yet seen such a strong fall of the ruble. Many people are puzzled about how the national currency will continue to behave. Especially this concerns people who are going buy or sell assets, the property, foreign currency And just people worried about the situation in the country. By the way, buy or sell currency, stocks and other assets can be of this broker .

The ruble exchange rate drops, and it is not known whether funds will be enough for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention the objects of luxury.

The current situation in relations with Ukraine, the fall of the price of oil and natural gas, and external restrictive sanctions made the ruble change their stable positions. And oil and gas, as you know, is more than 70% of the entire state budget.

The course of falling the ruble will also affect some countries that depend on cash flows by Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation and national currencies of these states.

Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.

The work of the Central Bank with foreign currency did not bring the required results in the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate. According to some officials, there remained only one way affecting the ruble exchange rate.

They argue that they will now influence the course through inflation targeting. The basis The method is a set of measures that will be able to influence the course of inflation and credit policy of the country.

Experts allocate three basic scenarios about the state of the ruble:

1. optimistic
2. anxious
3. realistic.

1st script - optimistic

If you listen to the government, then Russia is on the way to recovery and economic growth . It is expected to stabilize the price of barrel oil in Asia and Korea, which will grow to $ 95, and the dollar must acquire the former cost price 30-40 rubles.

The percentage of GDP will change due to the abolition of economic sanctions imposed by Western states in relation to Russia, which will affect the increase in the indicator on 0,3-0,6 % . Such changes are expected in the fall of 2019.

2nd script - alarming scenario

By the way, to trade financial assets (currency, shares, cryptocompany) can be directly on the stock exchange. The main thing is to choose a reliable broker. One of the best is This brokerage company .

Oil market collars only worsen the situation to stabilize the ruble exchange rate with respect to the dollar. If you turn to statistical data, it can be said that in 2016 the average dollar rate for the ruble ratio was 68 rubles, now the American dollar is worth 65-75 rubles.

The plans of our government, in the opinion of some analysts and experts, are not at all adoption of measures to stabilize national work. Development of exports - this is what the efforts of the state are sent.

Of course, the export of goods will bring the country an additional income, as Russia copes with a production deficit. The capacity of state production forces does not allow to process the harvest collected by Russian farmers and excavation.

It is not necessary to wait that the ruble exchange rate stabilizes its indicators. If you turn to statistical data 2014-2015then it can be recalled that the percentage of waiting for the level of the internal gross product was equal to 0.2, but at the beginning of next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5% .

The fall of the economy can not have a positive effect on the course of the ruble. When calculating such a percentage of reducing the level of GDP, the cost of the barrel of oil is taken as the basis. As well as the conditions of all prohibitions and sanctions. Such low economic indicators, no matter how cool, reduce the investment attractiveness of potential domestic and external investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the influx of material funds into the country that always affects the economy of Russia.

With such, far from optimistic data, it can be said that the ruble exchange rate will start to lose their current positions.

This will be facilitated by several reasons:

• the first factor is to predict the decline in oil prices in the global market. What primarily concerns natural gas that its export brings a large proportion of the country's income. The same situation is projected in the regions of Japan, America and Europe.
• the second factor is the country's geopolitics. The recent accession of Crimea led to the emergence of economic sanctions on the part of Western states, which also prevent the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate. The development of the Crimean Peninsula led to a large outflow of capital capital.

With such events, a decline in GDP is expected to an indicator that will be 3-3,5% . The dollar stabilizes, its cost will be 50-65 rubles.

3rd script - realistic scenario

According to the results of the vote, held on June 22, 2015, the EU will not cancel sanctions against Russia. You can confidently say that sanctions will not be canceled and they will remain at today. With a possible exacerbation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, sanctions will only increase.

As for the price of oil, then with this situation, it will remain the same price of 40-60 dollars per barrel. The level of GDP approaches zero, and according to some analysts and forecasts of the World Bank, GDP in Russia will have a negative indicator at all. The fall GDP will be approximately 0,7- 1 % .

Causes of falling and growth of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - forecasts and opinions

3. Causes of growth and fall of the ruble - the main factors 📋

In the current situation, every citizen of Russia follows the behavior of the ruble in the Forex currency market. Many factors affect the decline and raising of the course. And now, more than ever, the Russians are important not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we wrote an article about and what you need to know the novice trader for successful trading on Forex.

What affects the behavior of the national currency?

* Rubble growth factors

Among many reasons, you can allocate those that provide positive action on the behavior of the national currency, namely:

• Politics of the country. This factor directly Located with the course of the ruble, especially in the current situation today. Of course, the majority of government decisions are accepted for the benefit of the country and are aimed at the development of Russia.
• Securities . Investing Western partners in securities and assets of Russian companies contribute to the stabilization of the ruble on the global market. But, unfortunately, investing in securities, as a process, weakly developed. Perhaps soon, Western investors will become more actively invest your capital , while in this case, income in the form of dividends.
• Cost of oil. Everyone has long known that Russia has Rich oil resources . And the oil is enough not only for the needs of the country, but also to export it to countries that do not have such a resource. Sale of oil Russia enriches its state budget. That is, if the price of oil falls, then income, respectively, the country gets less.
• Population attitude to national currency. It is immediately incomprehensible, what's the point in these words, normally people relate to it. People stop trust National currency, deposits in rubles began to decrease. But this significantly affects the ruble exchange rate. The more the national currency will be attracted, the better the country's lending policy will be, respectively, the growth of the economy will not wait long. Moreover, the situation is ideal when foreign investors want to invest money in rubles. But, for this, first of all, there must be stability of the economy. Therefore, residents of the Russian Federation as residents, so I. foreigners, have a big impact on the stability of the national economy and on the ruble exchange rate, in particular.
• Increasing the pace of national production. The increase in this indicator will allow not only the planned production volumes, but also to exceed it. The high volume of production will ensure not only the needs of the country, but also export goods and products that will bring additional income for the state budget.

* Factors of falling ruble

On weight with all positive factors, also exist factors negatively affecting the ruble . They depreciate the ruble exchange rate, in relation to other currencies.

These factors have a huge influence, our government should thoroughly take measures to prevent them.

1. Flow of Russian capital. This is, first of all, the movement of assets in foreign states. The unstable position of the ruble forces investors to translate money and their investments in foreign currency. Exchangeing your cash savings in a different currency, we ourselves, not suspect, provide stability of a foreign state and its course. Thus, capital conclusion occurs from Russia. This devoid affects the positions of the Russian national currency. The result of such negative for the country of action is the fall in industry and the economy as a whole. People refuse to invest in the Russian economy, thereby ensuring their own low welfare.
2. Foreign currency course. In this situation, the advanced currency is precisely the one that has persistent positions in the global foreign exchange market. It is impossible to influence this. This currency, first of all, is a dollar that has persistent positions, thanks to the constant measures from the United States aimed at strengthening the country's national currency. America confidently strengthens its position. With the introduction of measures to stabilize the dollar's course by America, the ruble loses its position. Apply measures to prevent the fall of the course, in such a situation, even by all the forces of the Russian economy, is simply impossible.
3. Population with currency courses. The desire to make money on the course of currencies arises from most Russians. They invest their savings not in rubles, but in dollars or euros, looking at stable foreign exchange rates. Thus, people provide themselves with a reliable storage of their savings through a stable currency. In moments of strong fall of the ruble exchanged huge translations exchange of Russian money in foreign currenciesthat also provides the fall in the national course. Such actions confirm the fact of distrust of the Russians to the government, especially their promises that the ruble rate will soon stabilize.
4. Central Bank Measures. During the fall of the national currency rate, the bank refuses the ruble to convert to the dollar. This situation could prevent a significant drop in the ruble.
5. The share of the internal gross product. The production of Russia, by and large, stands on the spot, industrial plants are not expanding. The country produces such a small proportion of its own goods and products that income received from their sale is enough for salary to employees. Public enterprises are in place working on the old equipment. The equipment that remains since the times of the Soviet Union does not allow working on the power that is necessary for the development of the economy and the state as a whole. All this leads to distrust of people to domestic production, forcing them to buy imported goods.
6. Stagnation of economics. This factor is the consequence of the low proportion of GDP in the country. Stagnation, that is, a stagnation of the national economy and is the result of preference to foreign goods, when choosing a product. And this is not strange, because imported goods offer higher quality for about the same price category as the domestic manufacturer. West is famous for its own advanced technologies production than, unfortunately, Russia can not boast. Thus, giving preference to the goods of another producer country, we do not contribute to the development of the Russian economy and reduce the country's payment balance, which directly affects the fall of the national currency rate.

4. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - the opinion of experts 🗒

As mentioned above, experts cannot come to a common denominator and no one can concrete economic situation in the country, since their opinions are quite contradictory. But one can say one thing that 2019 will clearly become a difficult test for russians, national Economy and for rubble positions.

To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning forecasts on this occasion of some economic experts.

💡 We recommend to get acquainted with the opinion of experts and analytics from the company " ForexClub. ". According to the link, you will find tabs and sections with fresh forecasts by a specialist, you can also buy various assets through this broker.

Through the Tools tab, the purchase and sale of instruments (shares, currency, etc.) are available. The "Analytics" tab provides reviews, opinions and forecasts.

Former finance minister of Russia, Alexey Kudrin , believes that in the near future the economy of the country is subject to a huge decline. This opinion was the political situation for today. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the course of the ruble.

Modern economist Vladimir Tikhomir , I fully agree with the opinion of Kudrin. According to the economist, raising the economy and the achieved level of stability is only a temporary phenomenon that will soon lead to the ruble collapse as the national currency.

Falling the ruble as national currency and strong dollar growth foreshadows and Nikolay Salabuto . Having taught the head of the Finnam Management Company, the reason for this situation connects to the frequent fall of oil prices over several months.

According to the expert, the American national currency will rise to the mark 200 rubles per dollar .

Igor believes that some factors influenced this:

• restrictive sanctionswho will last at least until next year;
• the cost of oil that will decrease. This is due to Western competitors who export black gold on more favorable terms. The United States increases the export of oil every year, thereby overlapping oxygen for large Russian deliveries;
• national economywhich depends entirely on the environment and the economic situation in the country. This industry cannot develop independently, and directly depends on the geopolitical situation. Russian economy requires constant modernization and development by government bodies.
• Federal Reserve USwhose policies will be related to some events.

Igor Nikolaev expresses an opinion about actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that today's measures and methods of the Central Bank are perfectly true, and there is no need to expose the bank to rethink.

But this will not affect the stabilization of the national currency rate, the drop in which will not be able to prevent. To eliminate such a situation, according to the head of the company "Finnam Management", it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors induced above, as they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Sergey Hestanov The director of Alfa Group of Companies "Alor" believes that conditionally the falling factors of the ruble exchange rate can be divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.

Subjective factors include those that do not have justifications from a political, legal or economic point of view. Here Hestov includes first of all, the opinions of experts (as each of them expresses the originally its point of view, guided by those, or other factors), as well as cash outflow.

The objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. These are the external sanctions of other states, and the country's foreign debt.

The behavior of these factors is impossible to predict, but the analyst is confident that the cost of oil in 74 dollars per barrelwill lead to an even greater fall of the ruble. Such a price will contribute to the decline on 10-15 % From today's value of the ruble.

Opinion of a modern financial analytics, Vitaly Kulagin , more encouraging. He believes that the position of the ruble today is homepage. Analyst says that in 2019 the national currency will adapt to the current situation and will begin grow .

These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you can see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before taking the position and opinion of some of them, it is necessary to understand the power of factors affecting the position of the national currency.

5. Oil forecast for 2019 - News and forecasts 🛢

The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar in comparison with the ruble. This dependence is displayed as follows: with the growth of dollar, oil price decreases, respectively ruble loses its position . With the increase in oil prices, the dollar falls, and the ruble is growing.

Schedule of the cost of the ruble from the cost of oil

It is impossible to predict oil price in 2019. External Economic Bank predicts the cost of 6 0 dollars per barrel and above . At the same time, the resistance level of this price is $ 70, and the support level is 42 dollars.

Thanks to the news on the reduction of oil production and the extension of this restriction, the cost of barrel oil is growing. Resistance at this stage is $ 69-70. When "breakdowns" of these levels, the price of oil probably "will go" by $ 98-100. When "breakdowns" down $ 58 - Care in the range of 53-58 $

At the beginning of 2016, the price of oil ranked the position of the absolute minimum over the past decade and was equal 28 dollars per barrel. That is, the cost of oil can take any price at any time of the year.

6. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - the coming years: fresh news + expertforecasts of leading banks 📰

For a long time, the ruble cannot stabilize its position on other foreign currencies, such as dollar and euro. By virtue of severe economic circumstances, the ruble lost most of its cost.

Some foreign states, surviving economic crises, also observed a decline in the national currency. Foreign policy actions held by the state cause many analysts and experts to give different forecasts about the economic situation of the Federation and the course of the national currency, in particular.

The oscillations of the ruble can be associated with different internal and foreign policy actions from the state and its government.

The World Bank Gives quite Comforting forecasts about the ruble exchange rate and oil prices . According to the most respectable bank, the ruble stabilizes in 2019, and the dollar will cost approximately 58-60 Russian rubles. As for the cost of oil, it stabilizes at 63 dollars per barrel.

Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina Recently expressed its opinion on the country's economy in one of the interviews for the leading channel. Prices of the ruble and oil she did not name, but stated that the US policy to implement measures to strengthen the dollar will also support the currency of some states, among which Russia. The fall in the national course, according to the Chairman of the Central Bank, has occurred due to the fall in the price of oil, as well as the closure of the possibility of entering the global financial market.

Vnesheconombank it believes that in 2019 the price per US dollar will be equal 55-58 rublesIf the OPEC policy will contribute to raising the quotations on the barrel of oil to 75-80 dollars.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development It is evolving that financial cash flows are sent to our country will reduce at least 10 percent. The reason for such an opinion was the huge internal loans of the state, among banks, as well as external loan restrictions. There is a threat of rapid exhaustion of production capacity, as a result of a reduction in investment and simple financial flows.

Do not forget that this industry, as oil and gas, is also injured, due to lack of financing, and as a result of the impossibility to work at full capacity. Changing the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect currency relations, which will not play our currency benefit.

One of the Canadian banks Scotiabank. , the third size in the country, gives not the most optimistic forecasts of the Russian national currency. One US dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.

According to forecasts of one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs. , by 2019 the course of the national currency will be equal 60 rubles per dollar. The price of oil will fluctuate, but by the end of next year $ 70 will be equal for barrel.

All world banks It is converged in one opinion that the ruble exchange rate is successfully strengthened. Prediction of rising oil prices can not but rejoice. But, to raise the economy as a whole will have to stock patience and luggage action, after all, the rapid return of the past is not worth waiting for.

7. Frequently asked questions on the ruble and dollar courses 📢

Question number 1. Is it true that in 2019 will cancel the dollar?

The question of the abolition and restriction of the American currency is for some time the population is expanding. From time to time, this question rises in some political statements and legislative projects.

At the moment, the government takes all sorts of actions to reduce dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev, Which is the post of advisor to the president, proposed its plan for the economic development of the country. One of the points of the Plan is just a decrease in dollar turnover in the country. Glazyev further explained that the United States is already developing a plan to limit the use of the dollar in the country, and this plan will be a response.

It is clear that completely excluding the dollar from the country will not succeed, since this currency is the basis of the financial global system. The state policy is primarily aimed at eliminating the dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to an increase in the national currency of Russia.

for example, Trade in the national resource of Russia, as natural gas for rubles, and not for dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will make the dollar in relation to the ruble. In cases of solving large countries, to sell Treasury bonds of America, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire financial system of the USA will collapse.

City Express CEO Alexey Kichatov Assesses the chances of canceling the dollar in the country, as minimal. Kichatov declares that it will become a powerful blow to the Russian economy.

In addition, it predicts the difficulties that the Russian people expects, as the savings of the population are more stored in dollars.

Anton Sorok. Does not exclude partial disappearance of dollar in Russia . According to the analyst, it will take a lot of time that in the end will lead to the emergence of two courses of shadow turnover. In an example, he leads Venezuela. Trying to fight the outflow of capital, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two courses were formed in the country: official and unofficial.

Question number 2. What is the forecast of the ruble rate to the dollar for the next week?

In forecasting the course should not take into account News events, policySince when drawing up a forecast for the near future, these factors are not taken into account, they are too concise and unstable.

Since the special change and stabilization of the course will not be foreseen, the ruble rate for the next week will be 65-75 rubles In relation to the dollar, as there are no special reasons for stabilizing the course.

We remind, fresh forecasts and analytics about the dollar, ruble and other tools for the next day, week, month can be found link here 📊.

Question number 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)? Will the dollar fall in the near future?

The ruble exchange rate, as mentioned, directly depends on investments in the national economy. Moreover, the more investment will be commissioned in Russian capital, assets and economy, the reliable will be the position of the national currency. And such a process, as investing in the Russian economy, is associated with the position of the dollar in the country.

The course of the US currency also affects import balance and export . These indicators, for good economical growth of the country, must have a corresponding level. The situation is ideal when the export of goods from the country exceeds the import of imported goods, it allows you to enrich the state budget.

Speaking about this balance, it is necessary to remember that America has big State Duty . In addition, the United States has a large budget deficit, it forms the country's domestic debt. Based on this, the value of the dollar, as the global currency, should fall.
But questions arise, why with such a situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.

People trust the dollar, as the American currency is the highly liquid and most convertible currency in the world. Why are the forecasts of experts from year to year do not come true, and the dollar remains the most demanded currency of the world? ? What consequences of falling a dollar can be?

If still falling the dollar will happen another currency should come to replace. It is necessary to think what currency could replace the dollar in terms of conversion, liquidity and reliability.

Many experts lead euro to replace dollar. But do not forget that the European Union's currency is relatively young, which is now also experiencing not the most simple years. Many countries of the European Union are experiencing economic crisis . This is first Greece, Portugal, Spain other.

Wine such a stagnation is also a large debt of America these countries. The euro also depends on the dollar, more precisely from its course.

The dollar remained the most stable currencyEven when all countries experienced a default period and all stocks, real estate and assets fell in price. It helped the dollar to strengthen its position even more. Even in the crisis, when everything was depreciated, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.

Due to its stability, high liquidity and high conversion, many countries are used as a currency basket. it is the dollar . This diversification occurs to preserve accumulated money and their possible increase.

This method uses such economically strong states as Brazil, China, Russia And many other countries. The use of the dollar as a currency basket, contributes to stability and demand for the national currency of America.

The state itself does everything possible to hold the course of its currency at a high level. If you believe that the wine of the economic crisis was and was one of the "powerful moves" by America, which was staged to maintain the national course.

The method of maintaining the economic situation in America in 2008 it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. During this period was printed more than a trillion dollars.

America's actions did not lead to inflation, since the demand for the dollar did not decrease. While the demand for the national American currency is, the dollar will not fall.

The fall of the dollar is possible only in such cases as:

1. sale by major countries of the world of treasury bonds of the American currency and the rejection of the dollar, as from the currency;
2. if countries cease to trade through the dollar, the US financial system will fall. Russia actively conducts actions on this method, selling its goods for rubles. Previously, it was just unthinkable. It was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and then to pay the same currency with another country for the necessary assets or goods.

If each country in trading and buying will use its national currency, not a dollar, then the course of the latter will go down. Countries simply stop using the American currency with today's activity, it will become less demanded.

Question number 4. Will the dollar grow in 2019?

We have already described in detail possible forecasts at the dollar. The dollar can both grow and fall. This also includes dependence on the decision of the Fed. Analysts and experts predict that the Fed is planning to raise a percentage rate in the near future, which can negatively affect the ruble.

8. What will happen to the ruble in the near future 2019: Fresh news + our fundamental and technical analysis of the market 💎

Periodically, we will publish our forecasts and our visions on the course of the ruble and the dollar, analyzing the market, conducting their own, mainly technical analyzes.

* Forecast of the dollar rate for the near future

From the last technical analysis it follows that the probability of falling the dollar below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, carry out analytics and make forecasts it should be independently. No one knows exact forecasts !!!

If you want to independently start trading on the Forex market, we recommend using the services of this forex broker.

9. Conclusion + video on the topic 🎥

Analyzing all the forecasts of world-renowned banks and analytical experts, you can hope for an ambulance stabilization of the National Course of Russia. It is only necessary to stock up with certain baggage patience, strengthening the ruble rate will soon occur.

But despite such rainbow prospects, it is worth understanding that Russia today has a not the best economic situation, to affect which different actions can, and not only internal , but also external Political factors undertaken by the policies of other states.

A very shaky situation, the deficit of the national budget and the external sanctions do not give rest to residents of Russia. According to official statistics, in the past two years, Russia has spent one hundred fifty billion gold and collar reserves. We managed to stop the waste, but if oil prices continue their decline, Russia expects Russia full budget deficit.

After all, the income of the country will fall significantly, and considerable funds are required to maintain the functioning level of the economy of the economy of such a huge state. Opinions of experts and leading banks, of course, promising, but should not rely only on their forecast.

All Russians want to believe in the stabilization of the national currency exchange rate. Everyone is already tired of thinking about the dollar and wait for improving the level of wages and pensions.

It is necessary to increase the purchasing power of the population, raise the level of economy and the level of the internal gross product.

But you need to look at today's situation across the prism of reality and not just wait for improvements, but to promote them buying goods National production I. making contributions to national banks.

We hope that you now realized that the answer to the questions - "What will happen to the dollar in the near future?", "What will happen to the ruble?", Everyone is looking for himself, making their forecasts and relying on its principles.

If you have questions and wishes, ready to discuss them in the comments to the article.

In conclusion, we propose to view an interesting video.

Will the ruble collapse in 2019 in Russia, will the total inflation and the depreciation of the currency begin? What prerequisites are for the stagflation of the economy? In the past six months, the ruble seems to be stabilized, peak rates changed from 65 to 66 rubles. The government almost annually declares that "the ruble reached the bottom", however, even any man in the street sees that there is no growth in production, the prerequisites for a substantial increase in the price of oil or removal of sanctions are also not available. A stopping of the fall of the ruble is associated with the situation in the stock market, and very dangerous from the point of view of some experts. The influx of hot investments, which strengthened the ruble in the fall last year, can move to a sharp outflow of capital, which will entail an increase in the course to 10-15% in the first quarter of the New Year. Plus, it is possible to discharge the situation in politics.

However, the collapse of the ruble 2019, which suggests a dollar jump to 95 rubles and above is still unlikely. Moreover, investment forecasts may not be justified. Judging by the situation in the oil market, as well as on the December fall of the RTS, the ruble in 2019 expects a moderate depreciation. If there is no storm on the stock exchange, until the end of the year it grows up to 70 rubles. Even though the remains of the reserve fund and the FNB will be consumed.

Otherwise, the national economy cannot get out of the recession and crisis, and there are no prerequisites for this. Russia turns out to be in trading isolation, small business and carriers are staggered, large projects for gas fall one after another due to foreign policy. The course for import substitution with the support of entrepreneurs could be taken if the state had reduced the military budget for these needs. However, it does not want to go for this government. Expenditures, meanwhile grow.

Therefore, whether the collapse of the ruble will be difficult to say in 2019, but most likely not. The first goal is half a year - 70-75 rubles per dollar, by the end of the year the second - 80. Again, the Central Bank compensates for all the sale of foreign exchange reserves, which still have the state. When they run out - maybe collapse. In any case, the sharp devaluation of the ruble 2017 is unlikely to take place.

Everything, however, depends on the political situation. The war will grow up again in the Donbas, or again there are a plane, here and new sanctions. Plus, the Germans are not losing time, an alternative to Russian raw materials will appear in the next 1-2 years. While in the Russian Federation is watching Kiseleva, in developed countries work is underway if you compare the GDP of neighboring countries, it increases. And in Russia, the crisis - where does the ruble be strengthened? Envded UTII, put plato, excise taxes, tightened legislation - business is bend. After all, there is a direct connection between the liberalization of taxes and the development of business.

Therefore, the collapse of the ruble in 2019 is unlikely, but it is not necessary to completely exclude the possibility of a default.