Greetings to all people who are not indifferent to their tomorrow! Earlier, we have already talked about Forex trading in order to make trading as profitable and convenient as possible. There we examined which currencies are relevant today, which is useful for any practicing trader to know, because he works here and now, constantly being at the forefront of the market, so he must proceed from the current situation.

But, in connection with this, the question arose - "What about those who prefer not to speculate in currency, but to invest in it?", thus creating their own financial cushion for the long term. Use the same currencies as in trading? Is not a fact. Trading and investing are things, although they intersect, but they are far from identical, and the tools that are used there often differ.

So, in order to fill this gap and give food for thought to practicing investors, we have compiled our hit parade of “currencies of tomorrow”, which, in our subjective opinion, have a bright future. Let's start reviewing.

No dollars, no euros

Unexpected, right? The currencies that I referred to as the best options for opening a trading account are completely unsuitable for long-term investment.

Why? Yes, because both the USA, which is “in debt as if in silks”, and the EU, the number of problems of which is growing every day, although they are already over the roof, with 99% probability, the highest inflation is expected, accompanied by the devaluation of currencies. Of course, this will not happen today, not tomorrow, and not even in a month, but in the next few years we should definitely expect an inevitable decline in the US dollar and the single European currency.

A huge, simply gigantic issue of both currencies, when money is printed simply out of nothing, will drag high inflation with it, with all the ensuing consequences.

So, we are forgetting about the US dollar and the euro for the time being and are moving towards more promising currencies in this regard, the leading of which are three.

The countries whose national currencies will be discussed below demonstrate stable economic growth, and it is present not only on paper and in the news story on the central channel, but also in reality, which is confirmed by fundamental analysis tools.

Everything, everything, I will not torment you any more. So currencies.

Chinese yuan (CNY)

I think you've been waiting for this. Who better than China today has the maximum potential in economic, industrial, social and other terms.

For several years now, the PRC authorities, who are aware of the prospects of the dollar and the euro, have been investing in their assets (factories, mines, natural resources, etc.) not foreign, but their national currency - the yuan. Which, of course, has a positive effect on its value.

And the only reason why the yuan has not yet shot out, having entered the world market as the most reliable currency, is that the government and the Central Bank of the Republic of China deliberately hold back its exchange rate, preventing the yuan from rising, and sometimes deliberately underestimating the value of the currency in exchange offices, thus preventing it from floating freely on the world currency markets.

Why do they do it? Yes, to increase the attractiveness of domestic goods and services, and get more profit from them.

But, the world community is well aware of this policy and has been putting pressure on the Chinese authorities for several years, forcing them to adjust the exchange rate (to revalue the yuan). I don't know how long this situation will last, but I doubt it will be more than a few years. And it's not even that China will submit or give up its positions. There are more serious reasons, such as, for example, the decline in China's dollar reserves. As the world's largest producer of goods, China also consumes a lot. This means that they will have to invest yuan abroad.

Experts predict the yuan to rise against the US dollar by 20-25% within 5 years. Let's see how their forecast is justified, but the fact that if the current situation persists, there will be encroachments towards increase - that's for sure.

By the way, the yuan can also be traded on Forex. This happens through the USD/CNY asset related to .

Indian Rupee (INR)

Another global giant, if not economically, then in human terms for sure.

Yes, the national currency of India is now going through hard times. Over the past few years, it has experienced a strong decline against the US dollar, which occurred as a result of excessive control of the rupee by the Indian government. Trying to overcome the crisis in the economy and make domestic goods more popular, the Central Bank of India greatly weakened its value in the international market.

Why, then, do we consider this currency to be promising? Yes, because India's GDP growth is much higher than that of Western countries, and in order to avoid inflation, the country's Central Bank will have to raise interest rates, which will strengthen the rupee.

Now that India has already moved from a closed, isolated economy to an import-oriented economy, this issue is becoming very acute.

And one of the first currencies to benefit from the fall of the dollar and the euro by raising its artificially low rate will be the rupee.

The asset for trading on Forex with the rupee is the USD/INR pair.

Well, what do you think, what currency will be the third?

Canadian dollar (CAD)

I am sure that most of the readers were not expecting this. The Japanese yen or the Norwegian/Swedish krona were more in demand for the bronze award of our hit parade. Currencies of the most stable countries, whose economies are not threatened by anything (in the short term, for sure).

But, we decided to single out CAD, because. Canada has all the data to give its currency the brightest prospects.

This country is rich in natural resources - oil, gold, valuable varieties of wood and others. All this is in constant demand on the world stage and there are no prerequisites and a change in the situation so far.

Canada has a strong financial base, reliable banks that are not infected with the concessional lending virus, and the country's credit rating is AAA and the opening of many branches of Canadian banks in the United States (!) only confirm this.

If the Canadian government does not make any serious mistakes, then the country and its currency will have a bright future.

On Forex, the asset, with the Canadian dollar and the US dollar - currency pair, belongs to the category of the main and most liquid, so the acquisition of this currency will not be a problem.

To summarize, if you are planning to assemble an investment basket of currencies, seeking to protect your money and focusing on the long term, then the inclusion of the currencies listed above in it can play into your hands, with a high degree of probability bringing good profits in the future.

The easiest and most reliable way to acquire them is to open long-term Forex positions on the specified currency pairs. Just don’t rush to buy everything at once, contrary to your budget and strategy, but don’t shelve this business, who knows when that very moment of rapid growth in rates will come.

Well, the best broker for investing in Forex is traditionally considered a company that has all the tools necessary for an investor and trader in its arsenal. That's all for now, as far as currencies for investment are concerned, until we meet again.

Sincerely, Nikita Mikhailov

The head of Sberbank German Gref told in which currencies it is better to keep savings. And it's not an American dollar. Sberbank recognized the Swiss franc, Norwegian and Swedish kronas as the most reliable. But the main world currency - the dollar - was only in ninth place in the ranking, barely surpassing the ruble.

Sberbank President German Gref called the Swiss franc, Norwegian and Swedish kronas the most reliable world currencies. He refers to the results of a study by the organization he leads. The world's main reserve currency - the dollar - was ranked by Sberbank experts only in ninth place in the currency stability rating. And the ruble is in 11th place.

"The reliability and stability of a currency is one indicator, and its status as a reserve is another"

But, as Aleksey Ulyukayev, head of the Ministry of Economic Development, rightly pointed out, the reliability and stability of a currency is one indicator, and its status as a reserve is another.

What is the stability

Switzerland, Norway and Sweden have what the US does not, and vice versa. In the first three countries, currencies are the least subject to devaluation, their exchange rate is stable and predictable. The governments of these countries have prudent macroeconomic policies, and of course they have enough resources to keep their currencies stable. In addition, they have a high level of liquidity in the world, Gref pointed out.

Take the Swiss franc. Since the 20s of the last century, the Swiss currency has been backed by 40% of gold and foreign exchange reserves. At the same time, the dollar and the franc are almost one to one. The Swiss franc showed the most liquidity (according to Gref), which is $80 billion daily. This means that there is a constant supply and demand for the Swiss franc. Liquid currency can be exchanged for another monetary unit at any time.

The Swiss franc is stable. The National Bank of Switzerland is really fighting to ensure that there is no strong devaluation. In fact, such an event took place only in 1936 during the Great Depression. And, for example, when the EU faced serious debt problems in 2009, the franc did not devalue, but, on the contrary, began to grow against the euro, because there were no debt problems in Switzerland. The country's authorities still did not like it, and in 2011 the Swiss bank assured that from that moment on it would not allow its currency to strengthen to more than 1.2 francs per euro. This is the real power of the currency. Let mortgage, debt or other problems happen in the USA, Europe or somewhere else, the Swiss franc does not care. Your five kopecks in Swiss francs will remain five kopecks when converted into your native currency, even after the bankruptcy of another Lehman Brothers.

The monetary policy of Norway and Sweden is also aimed at maintaining the solvency of their own currencies, and the macroeconomics of these countries are among the most stable and, very importantly, self-sufficient. If Switzerland is able to maintain a stable exchange rate due to a strong banking sector and foreign exchange reserves, then Norway is able to maintain a stable exchange rate due to the almost inexhaustible reserve fund, which was accumulated thanks to the export of oil and gas. And Sweden is a recognized safe haven in Europe, which has retained its currency by joining the EU and has a sound banking system.

The US dollar, unlike the currencies mentioned above, is constantly devaluing, and the Federal Reserve does not have an obsessive goal to keep the dollar stable. Since 1913, the dollar has depreciated dozens of times, and in 80 years the American currency has undergone sharp exchange rate changes twice: in 1933 and in the 70s of the last century, Andrei Kochetkov, an analyst at the Otkritie Brokerage House, points out. There can be no question of any stability of the dollar, which means that keeping your savings in them is a risk. Therefore, the ninth place in Gref's rating is the most logical place for the dollar.

But the ruble took 11th place in the Sberbank rating, not quite rightfully, at least at the moment. Now the Russian currency clearly lacks stability for such a high place. It's just that Sberbank, when compiling the rating, took into account past periods when the ruble exchange rate was tightly regulated. But now the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has begun an active liberalization of exchange rate formation, that is, Russia has no goal of maintaining the ruble exchange rate, as, for example, in Switzerland.

“Since 1999, the ruble has slightly weakened against the dollar. For a long time, it even strengthened against major currencies when emerging markets were popular in global finance. However, the macroeconomic situation in the Russian Federation is far from complete well-being, and 11th place is still an attempt to wishful thinking. In 2013 alone, the ruble jumped to 30 per dollar, and then weakened to 33 rubles per dollar,” Andrey Kochetkov points out.

In the light of the policy pursued by the Bank of Russia, further weakening of the ruble is expected. There should not be sharp jumps, but a smooth devaluation clearly does not add stability to the currency.

No contradictions

There is no contradiction that the dollar is in the ninth place in the rating of Sberbank and at the same time is the main reserve currency of the world. “The US dollar has risks that the Fed will splash out excess debt liquidity on the consumer market and exchanges, which will give rise to inflation and currency depreciation. And the title of the reserve currency is confirmed by the fact that the bulk of exchange trading and import-export operations in the world are carried out in US currency,” says Dmitry Lukashov, IFC markets analyst.

“The presence of a hefty US debt burden encourages their currency to be a reserve”

As FxPro financial analyst Alexander Kuptsikevich points out, about two-thirds of trade turnover takes place in US dollars, as well as about 80% of foreign exchange transactions.

More than 60% of all gold and foreign exchange reserves of the world are in US dollars. Keeping all your savings in US dollars is risky because of the unstable exchange rate. But in the reserves - not quite. Therefore, large capitals are denominated in dollars, but they are not stored in them, but are placed in dollar assets. And, of course, the US economy is the largest in the world, and it is simply ridiculous to compete in this indicator with the economies of Switzerland, Norway or Sweden. The struggle for the leadership of the US economy is only with China.

“This means that the bond markets in Switzerland, Norway, Sweden are very modest and simply cannot meet the needs of the world in terms of foreign exchange reserves. It is very important that the country's debt markets are wide and deep, as this allows you to build and reduce reserves in this currency without a serious impact on quotes. The states provide such a market. To a lesser extent, it is also provided by Japan and the large countries of the eurozone (Germany, France, Italy). What makes these currencies the most popular as Central Bank reserves. Such is the paradox: the presence of an impressive debt burden of the state helps to ensure that its currency is a reserve,” Kuptsikevich explains.

There are no alternatives yet

Economists and scientists have long been debating what kind of currency will replace the dollar as an international reserve currency. The head of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Alexei Ulyukaev, also expressed the opinion on Wednesday that the dollar will remain the key reserve currency in the short term. “From my humble point of view, we are moving not towards more multi-currency, but towards more mono-currency. And in the short term, the dollar capacity of the market, the development of this financial market creates greater reserve prospects for it than for other respected, wonderful currencies,” Ulyukayev said, speaking at the Gaidar Forum.

There is no alternative to the dollar yet. The euro, yen, Swiss franc and pound sterling are now also used as reserve currencies, but they are not yet ready to replace the dollar. The Eurozone is in crisis, and Japan, the UK and Switzerland have too small economies compared to the US.

The Chinese economy is catching up with the US in size, but the Central Bank of China is pursuing an inflexible monetary policy. “The Chinese economy is the second largest in the world, but the country relies heavily on the dollar to pay for goods and services. The Chinese are moving towards liberalization of the course, but they are only at the beginning of this path,” says Alexander Kuptsikevich.

There are some differences among the opinions of experts, but the general trend is still noticeable. In this article, we will consider what is meant by a stable and stable currency, as well as the money of which countries belong to it.

Why does the value of currencies vary?

The cost of currencies of different countries cannot be the same, since all states have their own special features and characteristics. These include: geographical location, availability of support in the form of a reserve or gold and foreign exchange fund, status on the world stage, competent economic management.

So, the more developed the country, the better and better the government, the better the national body responsible for the financial situation copes with its tasks in the economic field, the stronger and more stable the currency of this state will be.

How is the “reliability” of a currency determined?

Many are interested in what other criteria are used to determine the most stable currency. It is necessary to conduct a small analysis of the main indicators of the state, including:

• extraction of natural resources and raw materials;
• the volume of imports and exports;
• development of the main modern sectors of industry (oil, gas, information technology).

Having assessed the country according to the proposed criteria, we can conclude that its currency is reliable. It is worth clarifying that stability does not mean high cost at all. So, the most reliable monetary unit is not always the most expensive currency.

The most stable currencies and their description

Consider the national currency of which countries is considered stable and reliable. It should be noted that the rating does not include the US dollar: despite its popularity and widespread use in paying for goods and services, it is not included in this top due to constant crises and problems in the economy.

Swiss frank

The most reliable currency at the moment is the currency of Switzerland. The country behaves wisely in economic terms, supporting in every possible way. It is backed by 40% gold reserves. The National Bank does not allow devaluation, as well as sharp jumps in the exchange rate of its currency. Therefore, despite the small number of bonds, it is most profitable to invest in francs.

Euro

One of the most widely used currencies in the world is . Despite the ambiguous economic situation in European countries, as well as the enormous difference in the position of some of them, the cost of this monetary unit, although it sometimes decreases, still remains quite high and stable. We can say for sure that the status of the reserve currency of the euro will not lose for sure.

Japanese yen

There are good reasons to choose as a deposit currency. First of all, a low level of inflation (no more than 1%), as well as the absence of denomination. Over the past 65 years, it has never happened. At the same time, one must understand that the Japanese economy is based on high technologies, developments in the field of programming, and in the last two or three years the demand for them has decreased. This is due to financial crises and problems in many countries of the world. However, now the yen is stable, and there is no reason to doubt its reliability.

Swedish krona

It is considered one of the most reliable national currencies. In some countries, the economy is supported by the constant issuance of new money, but this approach is not used in Sweden. Its policy is aimed at maintaining and maintaining the current course. This is what is considered the advantage of the krone, which does not give a chance for devaluation or an increase in inflation.

Norwegian krone

For the first time, the national currency of Norway was recognized as stable and reliable in 2008. After that, the rate of increase in its value was not too fast, but confident: upward trends were visible. This has led to what is now in the top 5 most stable currencies. It must be understood that the economy of this northern country is based on oil, so some fluctuations are present and observed almost always. However, Norway has been able to accumulate an impressive reserve fund, which keeps the krone at one of the highest rates against the US currency.

Australian dollar

The reasons why it is considered one of the stable national currencies are simple: its geographical position on the map. It is at a distance from all armed conflicts, and also tries to maintain neutrality in relations with all other countries. Another factor is the low unemployment rate. That is why investments in the Australian dollar are recognized by experts as cost-effective and justified. It should be added that the country lives off the export of natural resources, so slight fluctuations in the exchange rate are possible.

GBP

The official currency of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is indeed very stable. Its rate is usually considered unfair and overpriced by tourists, however, in terms of investments and investments, it is quite stable and profitable. In addition, there has been a surge in popularity over the past decade: in 2006, for example, it became the third most widely used reserve currency.

Canadian dollar

This currency, as the name implies, is common in Canada. About ten years ago, it ranked seventh among those currencies that were most actively traded in the money markets. At the moment, it is believed that the American economy is most affected, this is due to the proximity to the United States in geographical terms, as well as the large volume of imports from a neighboring country. In addition, now the exchange rate in the state is considered to be freely floating, and directly depends on the level of inflation.

Hong Kong dollar

This currency is common in Hong Kong. For about 30 years, its rate has been pegged to the US dollar. For this, the so-called Currency Board regime is used. With it, relative fluctuations are possible, but they must occur within the established limits: no more than 7-8 per 1 American.

Kuwaiti dinar

The national currency of one of the Middle Eastern monarchies. The economy of this country is thriving, mainly due to the active production and export of oil. If we talk about the exchange rate of this monetary unit against the US dollar, then at the moment 1 Kuwaiti dinar is equal to 3.3 dollars. At the same time, of course, it is not as popular among investors as the American currency.

If a person wants to make a contribution and ensure its safety financially, he must remember that only reliable currencies are the least affected by crises. Usually we are talking about the funds of strong and developed economic states. However, as already mentioned, they are not considered a good choice, since America's financial situation is not so stable, and the gold reserve is small. Therefore, it is better to pay attention to the above rating in order to choose a really stable currency for a deposit.

With constant financial instability on a global scale, experts are constantly figuring out which currencies are the most stable. As a result, the stability of national currencies is known only for a short time.

Experts believe that today the hardest currency in the world is the US dollar. In the future, this currency will still rise in price, since the market for dollar assets is the most liquid.

If we consider the Russian ruble from a historical point of view, then almost always it is declining against world currencies. Over the past 17 years, the Russian currency has weakened against the dollar by 14 times. It should be noted that the US dollar also topped the list of the most stable currencies in the world.

Grounds for the reliability of the currency

To find out which world currencies are considered the strongest in the world, you need to evaluate them by origin. As you know, the most stable currencies are where the economies are most developed. Often the size of the country or the standard of living there does not affect the reliability of the currency.

It is worth considering such a factor as the support of money by the country's gold reserves. The share of a country's gold in the global reserve affects the stability of a currency.

Assessing the reliability of the national currency, it is necessary to take into account the state of the balance sheet of the country's government. If the government has no debt to the population, then this indicates comparative reliability.

The stability of currencies is influenced by:

• mineral reserves,
• the degree of development of high technologies,
• export volumes,
• relations with other countries.

The inflation rate in the state lowers the purchasing power of the currency, so they reduce their value. The increase in the amount of money in the country directly affects the foreign exchange market.

The monetary policy of the country, when overcoming the financial crisis, forces officials to start printing money, which negatively affects the level of the exchange rate, putting pressure on it due to an increase in demand for foreign currencies.

The currencies of countries with above-normal inflation will decline in the long run compared to countries where inflation is low.

In what currency to keep savings

Japanese yen

The yen is the most stable currency in the world. It is subject to minimal inflation, over the past 70 years there has been no devaluation in the state, which makes it possible to recommend keeping deposits in yen.

The national currency is also strengthening due to the fact that Japan is one of the key importers of high-tech equipment.

Even if the currency is stable for a long time, this does not mean that it will always be so. For example, the Japanese economy was adversely affected by the nuclear disaster. To remedy the situation, banks are buying up gold in large quantities, which allows strengthening the local currency.

At present, the Japanese yen is not going to lower its stability. Experts predict that in a short time this currency will strengthen its position and become stronger than the dollar, which is now a reserve currency.

Swiss frank

It is necessary to separately mention Swiss banks, which have long become synonymous with reliability and security. Almost all aspects of the country's economic activity are aimed at supporting the stability of the national currency and stabilizing its exchange rate.

The franc is supported by almost half of the gold and foreign exchange reserves, the country's national bank carefully monitors changes in the situation, preventing falls and a sharp increase in the currency. The Swiss franc has been the world's most trusted currency for over 80 years, so it's safe to invest.

Euro

In recent years, there have been many different geopolitical events that in one way or another affect the status of the euro as a reliable currency in the world. Despite the decline in quotes, the euro is not going to give up its positions.

Experts believe that in the near future the euro and several other currencies will no longer be so stable. If earlier the European Union included states with developed economies, now there is a tendency for developing countries to join the EU.

There is a need to take measures within the structure to increase the level of the economy of developing countries to the desired level. A strategy should be defined to ensure the stability of national currencies.

We should not expect a collapse of the EU economy and a radical depreciation of the euro in the near future.

Large investors are advised not to rush to transfer their funds to the euro, this currency is now going through a difficult period. At the same time, states that are not part of large structures react sharply to crises in the world, which means that their currencies do not behave too predictably.

U.S. dollar

The US dollar is the global reserve currency, so people will always invest their money in dollars. However, now the US has a fairly large external debt, which is reflected in various economic areas. Despite the problems, the dollar remains the most reliable currency.

The stability of the US dollar is largely due to the fact that the national bank begins to print additional money at regular intervals. But, from year to year there is no predicted collapse, and people still prefer to keep their savings in US dollars.

Norwegian and Swedish krona, Australian dollar

Norwegian money is a stable currency, which is considered one of the strongest. For a long time, Norway has developed its economy with a focus on oil production, and its cost, as you know, can fluctuate greatly.

Over time, the situation changed, the crown began to strengthen, and during the time of exporting gas and oil, it managed to accumulate quite serious gold and foreign exchange reserves. This currency was not affected by the decline in oil prices.

The Swedes took advantage of the more economically successful Switzerland. Officials did not make a decision to print banknotes; instead, banks began to focus on stabilizing the country's currency.

Thanks to efforts to improve economic policy, the national bank does not allow the krone to be subject to devaluation and inflation, which makes it possible to recommend this currency for savings.

You can also keep money in dollar terms, but in electronic form. But we must remember that there are certain.

The Australian dollar is considered a stable world currency. This can be explained, first of all, by the geographical location of the country. Australia is a mainland state that never intervenes in world conflicts and is loyal to any political situation.

Australia is a country with a consistently low unemployment rate. Thus, the Australian dollar is recognized as attractive to investors.

Stability of the Russian ruble

Public policy should work to:

• reducing inflation,
• development of national market infrastructure,
• lowering bank rates
• increasing the number of direct investments,
• attracting domestic savings,
• availability of credit
• economic stabilization,
• return of national capital.

purchases of foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance (it is acquired as part of the budget rule to sterilize excess profits from high oil prices), and on August 9 did not buy foreign currency at all. In August, the Central Bank had to purchase foreign currency for 16.7 billion rubles every working day.

But on Friday, August 10, the dollar rose by another 1 ruble, rising above 67 rubles. (maximum since August 2016), and on Monday, August 13, it continued to break anti-records, having already reached the April figures of two years ago - above 68 rubles. per dollar. But these days, the sharp fall of the ruble was associated not only with the upcoming anti-Russian sanctions by the United States, but also with the growing economic crisis in Turkey, which has a negative impact on the currencies of all emerging markets, including the Russian one, experts say.

On August 10, due to US-imposed restrictive trade measures on the Turkish lira, the currency fell 14% against the dollar in one day to a historic low of 6.47 lira, and weakened against the dollar by 21% in a week. On August 13, the historical minimum was updated - on Monday, the lira against the dollar reached 6.9.

Video: RBC

Turkish seasoning for sanctions

The weakening of the ruble is due to several reasons at once - anti-Russian sanctions, the flight of investors from emerging markets amid the crisis in Turkey and a letter from presidential aide Andrei Belousov with a tax burden on the metallurgical industry, believes Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank. “In this regard, it is difficult to say what impact each factor has separately, since they can affect investor sentiment to the same extent,” she notes.

The situation in Turkey since the end of last week has overshadowed both fears of a global trade war and the topic of sanctions, analysts at VTB Capital believe, predicting that in the near future the situation in this country will remain in the focus of investors' attention, and the lack of an effective response to a surge in exchange rate volatility will likely continue to put pressure on other emerging market currencies as well.

What has been happening to the ruble over the past two days is a reaction to the growing Turkish crisis, Kirill Tremasov, director of the analytical department at Loko-Invest, agrees. “In Turkey, events are developing according to the most catastrophic scenario - we should expect serious problems in the banking sector, the introduction of currency controls,” he notes. As a result, the ruble, like other currencies of developing countries, immediately reacts to the situation in Turkey, the expert says. Nevertheless, the Russian currency, in his opinion, is now being traded inadequately cheap - in addition to the Turkish crisis, anti-Russian sanctions also affect.

Currency exchange office in Istanbul, Turkey. August 13, 2018 (Photo: Murad Sezer / Reuters)

Events in Turkey cannot but create risks for other currencies of developing countries - against the background of the fall of the lira, the Brazilian real, the South African rand, the Mexican peso are also falling, recalls Sergey Suverov, senior analyst at BCS. It is against the backdrop of the situation in Turkey that the ruble is falling more actively than if only future sanctions would put pressure on it, he believes.

The ruble is not affected by the fall of the Turkish lira per se. The main factor here is tough US rhetoric towards Turkey, which sends a signal to investors that Washington can act more decisively towards Russia as well, says Denis Poryvay, senior financial markets analyst at Raiffeisenbank. Against the background of the tough US policy against Turkey, investors have no doubts that the sanctions will not only be “cosmetic,” the analyst believes.

How the ruble will behave further, analysts do not undertake to predict. The pressure on the ruble may stop when the market receives a signal that the US Congress will not follow the worst-case scenario of new anti-Russian sanctions - against Russian public debt and state-owned banks, Sergey Suverov notes. Even if the sanctions apply only to OFZs, the ruble is likely to break through the mark of 70 rubles. per dollar, admits Denis Poryvay, noting that in the current situation it is impossible to make any forecasts regarding the limit of the ruble weakening.

Based on the macroeconomic situation and the balance of payments, the ruble should not be worth so little under any circumstances, Kirill Tremasov believes, therefore, according to him, when the situation calms down a bit, the rate may return to the levels of early August.