The real removal of the president from power is unlikely to happen

In America, a tradition seems to be emerging: every twenty-one years, at the end of December, 450 people get together and impeach the president. And if in 1998 Democrat Bill Clinton faced accusations, then December of this year became fierce for Republican Donald Trump. The accusations against the President of the United States of both abuse of power and obstruction of justice were accepted by a majority vote. It's not all bad news for the Republicans, though. The process has rallied their party, and it is not over yet. And the president is quite ready to seize the initiative and strike already at the Democrats.

How Trump was impeached

Nancy Pelosi is hardly a good poker player. This quality is not something that a leading politician needs, but it would be very useful to control one's emotions well. Despite his best efforts not to rejoice and keep a sad expression, Pelosi's face broke into a smile after the results of the vote. Of the 450 congressmen, 230 supported allegations of abuse of power and 229 for obstructing a congressional investigation. Throughout the eight hours of debate, Democratic congressmen maintained the line that the current trial is a tragedy for all of America, and not a "holiday of one party," and Democrats have to vote for impeachment "with a heavy heart." And still, after the official results were announced, the Democrats, contrary to all recommendations, burst into applause, and even Pelosi herself could not help smiling. They went to this impeachment for three months, and finally were able to announce it without allowing a serious split in the party.

On the other hand, if the Democrats still found a couple of "defectors", then the unity of the Republican Party is impressive. Among all 197 Republicans, there was no one who would support the accusations made against their president. This is a telling situation: Conservatives have been uncommonly united by the attempt to remove Trump. Even those who represent districts where the majority of residents supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 still did not deviate from the line of their party. President Trump still managed to become the absolute leader of his party, and speaking out against him would be political suicide for almost any Republican, because 95% of the party's supporters are confident in the innocence of the head of state and actively support him.

Highlights of the night: Stephen King, moment of silence and Tulsi's demarche

Trump's impeachment will be remembered not only by a dry number of votes for and against, but also by several bright moments. First, the famous writer Stephen King showed an active civic position. Moreover, he did not just speak out once, but promised to "do everything in his power" to deprive the congressman from his district of a seat in the House of Representatives. Democrat Jared Golden of Maine brought on such a writer's fury. But it wasn’t the fact that Golden had voted “yes” against the accusation of abuse of power against Trump that angered the writer, on the contrary, Stephen King was furious that the congressman voted against the accusation of obstruction of justice. King called for "anyone" to run in the primaries against Golden and promised his full support. In general, Golden found himself in a very difficult situation: in his district, the majority does not support impeachment, but they are angry that he agreed to bring the first charge. Those who support the impeachment are outraged by his betrayal on the issue of the second charge. Looks like we've learned the name of the first congressman to lose the 2020 election.

But Golden is not the only Democrat who has somehow failed to support impeachment. In addition to him, Republican Jeff Van Drew and "old Democrat" Collin Peterson spoke for the president at five minutes to five minutes. Both of these congressmen are terribly far from the current Democratic Party: they vehemently support the right to own weapons, oppose same-sex marriage and abortion, vote against increase in benefits and minimum wages, and do not worry about the problems of migrants. In a word, they are many times closer to the president than to the leaders of their own party (and Van Drew has already announced his transition to the Republicans). Much more sudden was the demarche of Tulsi Gabbard, who is now in the race for the presidency of the United States. She unexpectedly abstained from voting, saying that as a result of the investigation, she was unable to form an opinion either about the guilt of the president or about his complete innocence in the crimes. Tulsi Gabbard has long been a protest within the Democratic Party and has long been trying to shut her up and knock her out of the race. However, her popularity is growing and she excels at debates. There is no chance of her becoming the unified Democratic nominee, but the impeachment vote highlighted the gulf between her and the party. Gabbard could break with the Democrats and run as an independent, which would be a huge blow to the party.

Republicans have no such risks, because they have not found a single defector. The only non-Democrat congressman to support the accusations left the Conservatives long ago. This is Justin Amash, a very moderate Republican who has been in Congress since 2011. Six months ago, he announced his withdrawal from the Republican Party and his future plans to move independently. However, this is a one-time incident, and it seems that it will not continue. All other Republicans remained loyal to their president, and at the debate they came up with an excuse. Several members even held a "moment of silence" due to the unfairness of the allegations. Republican Russ Fulcher of Idaho played it even more interesting. He went to the podium and announced that he would list all the crimes of Trump. After that, the congressman spent the rest of the time in absolute silence.

And what about Trump?

Donald Trump, by his own admission, watched the impeachment debate only in fragments. He missed the vote. Just at this time, he spoke to a crowd of his supporters in the city of Battle Creek in Michigan. This place was not chosen by chance. First, Michigan, although leaning towards the Democrats, supported Trump in 2016. The President of the United States is guaranteed to give the Democrats a fight in this state and try to win there again. The second reason is that the senator's elections will be held here, where not the strongest Democrat Gary Peters will be challenged by the bright and energetic Republican John James. You can talk about James for a long time, but many experts agree that it will not be easy for Peters to keep his chair. Trump's appearance is part of a campaign not only for himself, but also for his Republican ally. And thirdly, Battle Creek was obviously not chosen by chance: it is included in the constituency represented by just the ex-Republican Justin Amash. Trump was speaking to the Amash electorate just as the congressman was voting against him. This is the most transparent message to the locals: as a supporter of Trump, you cannot support the person who tried to bring him down. It is almost certain that someone else will represent Michigan's 3rd District in the next congressional convention.

In his speech, the president touched on the topic of impeachment. According to Donald Trump, the Democrats committed "political suicide". The head of the White House said that this process is not directed against him personally, but against all those who are not ready to live at the behest of the leaders of the Democratic Party. At the same time, the US President is confident that the American voter understands this and will respond by voting for him and the Republican Party. Trump said that he was cheerful and not at all offended, because the process to remove him from power would help him get re-elected. And judging by the president's ratings, which have risen sharply against the backdrop of impeachment, he is not so far from the truth.

The Democrats still managed to impeach Trump before Christmas. In the near future, Congress will go on holiday break. He will return to work in 2020. Then Nancy Pelosi will have to take the charges to the Senate. The Republicans have a majority in the Senate, so it is obvious that the removal of the president looks extremely unlikely. But it should be noted that the Republicans have two ways how they can act.

On the one hand, they can quickly dismiss the accusations, declaring that Trump is completely innocent and thus close the impeachment issue, turning all attention to the election campaign. There, Trump is doing very well so far, breaking records for collected donations and regularly holding thousands of rallies in front of supporters. In general, in such a situation, it may be beneficial for him to leave the slippery topic of impeachment and plunge into the election campaign.

On the other hand, Republicans will get carte blanche to call witnesses to the Senate. And if the Democrats were de facto time-limited, then the Republicans would have enough time to require all the witnesses they need to testify in court. Most likely, the interrogation will not affect the leaders of the Democrats in the House of Representatives (as Trump wanted), but the Democratic Party could suffer very much. An interrogation of Joe Biden and his son may be held, which risks burying the ratings of the leader of the race among the Democrats. Eric Ciaramella, an informant who had connections with the Democratic leadership and actually initiated the impeachment, may be called in for questioning. Questions may be asked of other prominent politicians in the Obama administration, and even the ex-president himself may be questioned. In this case, it is this agenda that will come to the fore, seriously pushing back the democratic primaries themselves. It will become more difficult for Democrats to conduct an election campaign, which, in the absence of a single political leader, may even lead to the collapse of ambitions to take the White House by election results.

One way or another, one thing is clear - the Senate will not support impeachment under any circumstances. To be under real threat of removal from power, the president must lose the support of ordinary voters. In the meantime, it is only growing with him, Trump can have no doubts about his leadership. Republicans will not betray Trump, especially when "betraying Trump" sounds like "betraying ourselves."

Equator Donald Trump. How America Becomes Great Again

January 20, 2019 marks exactly two years since the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the United States. Then, two years ago, the whole world stood still in anticipation, and to say this would not be an exaggeration, whether someone likes it or not. Because the change of official supreme power in the most influential state on the planet is always at least a very important event for everyone. Especially when such an ambiguous and, for many, extremely unexpected figure takes office. But it would also not be an exaggeration to say that America itself held its breath in particular. I think the reasons are quite obvious. And now two years have passed. Trump's presidential term has reached its equator. It is too early to judge the global results of his reign. It will be possible to talk more or less confidently about what his presidency gave the world, at least towards the end of his first term. And, preferably, even the second. But what does his rule bring to America itself? What happens under Donald Trump inside the country he rules? What is "Trumpism" in different spheres of US life?

Foreign policy

If it were possible to name one major defining feature of the foreign policy of the Donald Trump era, for example, characterizing it in one word, then I would say that this word is - confusion. And it manifests itself not only in periodic obvious gaps between the vision of the foreign policy of the president and his administration. In addition to this obvious phenomenon, there is also a deep, viscous quagmire of contradictions in the actions of Mr. Trump himself, in his impulses and unexpected turns, which often contradict each other.

On the one hand, even during the election campaign, Trump insisted on the return of American soldiers from Syria and Afghanistan. Moreover, just after the current Christmas holidays, he confirmed this intention to a group of American Republican Senators, as the US Congressional newspaper The Hill reported on January 16. But at the same time, from time to time, he literally shocked with his militancy. Sometimes even their own advisers. This was manifested, for example, in relation to Iran, on the issue of which Donald Trump has declared pronounced hawkish intentions from the very beginning of his rule.

However, there is confusion here as well. While blatantly demonizing the certainly highly controversial Islamic regime in Tehran, President Trump does not question Iranian interests in Syria – at least not by doing anything of the sort openly and diligently maintaining parity between the Iranian expeditionary force in that country and the forces of the American army. .

A very similar situation is developing in its relations with the DPRK. He either threatens North Korea with “complete destruction”, and, doing this from the UN rostrum, then, after some time, he claims that he “fell in love” with Kim Jong Un. Despite the fact that the head of the DPRK, who has not yet become a real political heavyweight, has by no means shown even a symbolic readiness to dismantle its nuclear arsenal.

As for relations with Russia, if you look closely, they are a reference reflection of those internal contradictions of foreign policy trumpism, which have already been mentioned above. On the one hand, most Putin he criticizes, in general, very reluctantly, which, of course, strengthens the long-standing suspicions that he is “being under the power of the Kremlin”, which is still being pumped up by the press of the “democrats”. It can be assumed that President Trump himself might not be opposed to some détente in bilateral relations with the largest state in the Eastern Hemisphere. But his administration has clearly taken a much tougher stance on this issue. In fact, speaking out against Russia, she adheres to a much more radical line of behavior than her predecessors of the times. Barack Obama, initiating more and more sanctions, blocking Moscow's economic initiatives, supplying lethal weapons to the ruling regime in Ukraine.

However, this has happened before.

But there are three fundamental points that make the foreign policy of the Trump period completely different in nature from all his predecessors for the foreseeable period.

The second fundamental point in Donald Trump's foreign policy vision is the desire to erase the legacy of Barack Obama and many of his predecessors. Almost everything that Obama once actively advocated was either torpedoed by Trump or called into question by him: from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, to the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris climate agreement.

And the third fundamental point of foreign policy trumpism is distrust of multilateral agreements and collective political institutions. For the hardened New York businessman Trump, the template in negotiations (and he does not see the difference between business and political negotiations, which has been noted many times), and in the conclusion of transactions is, first of all, direct communication / clash / confrontation of two personalities - a kind of duel of two powerful people standing face to face. This is certainly a kind of professional deformation of the personality - a vision and understanding of the processes that guided him all his life, for many years doing big business. And he continues to be guided by this after he has led the United States. All sorts of "round tables" with many opinions and endless conversations frankly annoy him - he sincerely cannot understand why he should listen to all these foreigners of various calibers, different positions and views, many of whom are not endowed with power at all and do not decide anything at all in this the world. Well, if so, why should he know their opinion? He chose John Bolton national security adviser, primarily in order to stir up this anthill, to make American politics extremely brutal, ready to cut those knots that are too long and difficult to untie.

In general, Trump, as the supreme leader of his country, has not yet passed the test of a real international crisis, which he did not create himself and in relation to which his will is not decisive. Well, there are two years left before the end of his presidential term - we will see if his geopolitical luck continues.

Economy

“There has never been such a powerful economic growth in the history of the United States,” Donald Trump told reporters last year. And this is not far from the truth. He clearly has something to brag about for two years in the White House.

America's current unemployment rate is close to nothing seen since the moon landing. It is noted that a large number of the economically active population left "from the sidelines of life" and began to look for work. There is a reason for this: in two years under Trump, there were more than 5 million jobs created.

Yes, of course, the claim that presidents “create” jobs is rather dubious. But it is even more doubtful to consider that their course has nothing to do with this - the fact remains. However, the current economic growth in America began under Barack Obama. That, however, does not negate the success of Trump himself, who expresses his intention to become “the greatest creator of jobs that the Lord has ever created.”

In this, he has something to strive for, since he is not a champion in this indicator. At the moment the record is held here Bill Clinton, which created 23 million jobs in two terms. Barack Obama, who was elected in the wake of the worst recession in living memory, created 10 million jobs in two terms and is in second place. Nevertheless, it is too early to draw conclusions here - the start in this matter, nevertheless, is taken promising. Although, there is a considerable danger in this - after 99 months of growth in the number of jobs in the country, the likelihood of a significant decline is very high.

In some ways, however, Trump already has a fundamental advantage over Obama: under him, wage growth is finally starting to gain momentum — and this is coming after years of stagnation.

In other areas, Trump's economic performance is less clear.

To date, the biggest achievement of his economic policy is considered to be the new $1.5 trillion tax cut package of November 2017. This move is perceived extremely ambiguously and has critics of both left and right views. In particular, the most criticized reduction in corporate tax from 35% to 20%, which was likely one of the reasons for the victory of the Democrats in the midterm elections in November

And, of course, speaking of Trump's economic policy, it is impossible not to mention its most obvious sign - trade wars. Trump has, in fact, crossed out decades of an established system of trade agreements and pitted America against its largest trading partners. The effects of the unrest he sowed are still being assessed, but the obvious ones are dramatic sell-offs in the stock markets and possibly a slowdown in the Chinese economy. This, in particular, affected the Apple corporation, which issued the first warning to investors since 2002 about lowering the profit forecast, motivating this precisely by the state of affairs in China. Well, this is probably not the last warning.

The undeniable fact is that Trump's economic populism helped him become president. Whether he succeeds in running for a second term will most likely depend on whether he can keep the promises he made when he was elected to the first. So far, his steps in this direction can be considered successful. How productive they will be in the end - time will tell very soon.

Judicial scope

In the American picture of the world, this area is one of the key ones, and understanding what is happening there is no less important when describing America than the economy and foreign policy. And what is happening in the US judiciary now could safely be called "Operation Patriarchy." Yes, old white males are not the dominant group in the demographics of the United States, but the 72-year-old president and 76-year-old Senate leader Mitch McConnell do their best to ensure their pre-eminence in the American courts.

Over the past two years, they have diligently staffed the US high courts with those who belong to this particular population group - white conservative men, whose lifelong status secures these assignments firmly.

Of course, for any party in power, such a line of behavior is a common thing, and not only in America. Here, oddly enough, Turkey is very similar to it, where the attitude towards the judiciary is no less reverent. True, this is expressed a little differently: after the recent coup attempt, mass purges took place there not only in the army, but also among the judges - a fifth of them were replaced. However, returning to American affairs, we can say that in this case it is part of Mitch McConnell's long-term strategy. At one time, he blocked dozens of Obama's candidates for US federal courts, refusing to vote in the Senate, joining the game of bringing a Republican to the presidency in 2016. For example, after the death in 2016 of a judge of the Supreme Court Antonina Scalia McConnell used his control of the Senate to keep the seat vacant for 293 days, blocking Obama's nomination Merrick Garland. For which, later, the Democrats took revenge on Trump himself. What is happening now is a logical continuation of this strategy.

For white evangelical Christians in America's "Bible Belt," the vacant Supreme Court seat was the most compelling reason to vote for Trump, a triple-married alleged serial adulterer who bragged about his sexual exploits and was clearly not "their dream candidate" to religious conservatives. And Trump did not deceive their expectations by nominating a conservative Neil Gorsuch.

Already in 2018, another candidate was appointed to the Supreme Court - Brett Kavanaugh, which had a rather scandalous character in American society. Allegations of sexual harassment were brought against him, which he denied. As a result, despite the protests of opponents, this appointment was nevertheless carried out in an almost forced manner.

As a result, Trump and McConnell formed a conservative majority in the Supreme Court, which can now last for decades, which, in the long term, gives them hope for very significant anti-liberal changes. For example, to cancel the well-known so-called. the Roy v. Wade decision of 1973, which secured the right to abortion.

Just as fast, McConnell and Trump are moving towards a "shift to the right" of the appellate and district courts.

In the past two years, up to 85 judges have been appointed by Trump: 2 to the Supreme Court, 30 to the U.S. Courts of Appeals, and 53 to the District Courts. This is much faster and more efficient than Obama, whose eight-year record was 2 Supreme Court justices, 55 appellate judges, and 268 district judges.

What's more, Trump currently has 70 more candidates in the "operational reserve" that can be approved by a simple majority in the Senate, where the Republicans have a 53/47 advantage. And also dominated by white men of respectable age.

House of Representatives, again controlled by Democrats under the leadership Nancy Pelosi, of course, can block republican legislative initiatives. But against Trump's determination to nominate and appoint conservative judges, the Democrats on Capitol Hill are powerless.

Ecology

Trump's attitude to the topic of environmental protection is perhaps most strikingly characterized by the fact that he canceled Obama's plan to combat global warming, naming the warming itself falsification, as well as a corruption scandal around Scott Pruitt, now former head of the Environmental Protection Agency.

But this is, rather, what is on the surface and reflects only a small part of the processes going on much more quietly and routinely. For example, during the sleepy and relaxed period between Christmas and New Year's, the EPA decided that emission control regulations were too burdensome for coal companies and should be eliminated in their current form.

This list of rules is the latest in a list of about eighty environmental regulations that have either been repealed or are about to be repealed by the Trump administration. It also dismantles Obama's founding policies and undoes all of his efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector, the planned pesticide ban, and significantly soften the environmental standards of car fuel systems.

On the latter, the new vehicle environmental regulation regime is in a bitter fight with the state of California, which has much stricter pollution control regulations in this area than federal standards. What will be the outcome of this confrontation, it is difficult to predict.

emigrants

Here, Donald Trump immediately took a very serious start. In the first half of 2018, Trump legitimized the forcible separation of migrant children from their families, often causing dramatic scenes in border courtrooms and within the walls of local detention centers, where mothers and fathers begged for the return of their children. In fact, since 2017, thousands of immigrant families across America have gone through this procedure. It is in this regard that very significant bipartisan pressure was exerted on Donald Trump. Trump's daughter and close adviser Ivanka described the moment as critical for her father's administration, which formally abandoned the policy in June 2018. However, the radical immigrant agenda has not been replaced and continues to be pursued in other ways.

This concerns not only the natives of Mexico. For example, Trump imposed a ban on travel to America from a number of Muslim countries, including visits to relatives already living in the United States.

The immigration authorities, which have received additional powers, continue to increase the number of arrests and deportations. Currently record 44,000 people are contained in an "immigration detention" because the immigration courts simply can't keep up with the influx of new cases. The new rules on deportation also include those who have already lived in America for decades, started a family and completely arranged their lives in a new place.

At the same time, the Trump administration has reduced the quota for accepting refugees into the country to record low - 30,000 people per year. The quotas for the issuance of "green cards" were also reduced, the lottery for the issuance of which was completely proposed to be canceled. In addition, Donald Trump announced that he intends to stop the practice of obtaining American citizenship for children of illegal immigrants born in the United States.

The real “icing on the cake” in this matter is the decision to build a concrete wall on the border with Mexico, the financing of which President Trump intends to entrust to Mexico itself.

In general, the vector of his administration's policy on the emigration issue is formulated very clearly, clearly motivated and is unlikely to change under any pressure.

Make America Great Again

"Let's Make America Great Again." The slogan under which Donald Trump was elected president. And the promise he made to those who elected him. Will he deliver what he promised? So far it is difficult to say: two years is too short a period to assert anything reliably. But one thing is clear - he aspires to. And at least he wants to "make America great again". At least in the sense that he puts into it. How good it is for Russia - time will tell. As well as how good it will be for America itself.

Donald Trump is a highly controversial person and a highly controversial president. His decisions are controversial and in America itself cause a whole range of emotions, from enthusiasm to furious indignation. The intensity of criticism against him is very high and does not subside. The policy he leads is not supported by a part of American society in the most radical way. But the voters of Donald Trump himself belong to a different part of this society. His policies are supported by those who voted for him. And who will undoubtedly vote for him again, if what he has already undertaken is completed to the end. He knows it. And therefore, the policy that he pursued in the past two years will not change in the next. And all of the above there will be a logical continuation. And opposition to this within America will also be very serious. This is already quite predictable.

The US presidential election is over, the winner is known. However, there is still a couple of months left before Donald Trump's full-fledged entry into office. On November 10, the first step was taken to transfer power from Barack Obama to his successor.

On Thursday, November 10, Barack Obama received Donald Trump at the White House. Despite the fact that during the election campaign the incumbent president openly campaigned for his Democratic colleague Hillary Clinton, Obama did not break the tradition according to which the incumbent US leader conducts a personal conversation with his successor. At the same time, the wives of politicians, Melania Trump and Michelle Obama, also meet in the White House.

Trump's team is already actively recruiting personnel for leading government posts. Information is leaking to the press about who can take high positions, but officially everything is kept secret for now. already noted on this.

Trump, since the announcement of the results of the vote, already has the right to receive information from intelligence agencies about secret government operations or current secret information about foreign leaders.

The winner of the presidential election is known, but formally the electoral vote is yet to come. They will vote in accordance with the results of elections in each of the states. The procedure will take place on December 19, and the results will be announced on January 6, 2017 in the Senate.

For now, Barack Obama will continue to fly on board presidential airliners. "Air Force One" will go into the possession of Donald Trump and his associates next year, on January 20.

The official handover of the keys to the White House will take place on the day of the inauguration of the new US president on January 20. However, Barack Obama and his family will start moving out earlier - before Trump moves in, the building will be renovated and the furniture will be replaced. The Obamas plan to stay in Washington until 2018, when both daughters graduate from high school.

Donald Trump will also be able to dispose of US nuclear weapons after his inauguration on January 20. Then he will become the owner of a briefcase with codes to activate the nuclear arsenal. The suitcase is handcuffed to the wrist of one of the officers of the US armed forces, who must always be near the president.

A full transfer of power is carried out at the time of the inauguration of the new president, which will take place on January 20 at 12 noon local time. Traditionally, this ceremony takes place in front of the Capitol building in Washington. For the 9th President of the United States, William Harrison, the inauguration in the open air became fatal: a two-hour speech in the cold wind turned into a cold, which developed into pneumonia due to overwork. A month after taking the oath, Harrison died.

After Donald Trump was elected president, Buzzfeed jokingly began to reassure its readers by running a timer until the next US presidential election. The date of the new vote is indeed already known - November 3, 2020. Donald Trump has the right to run again. True, in 2020 he will be 74 years old. At the same time, 70-year-old Trump will already become the oldest president in US history at the time of his first inauguration. The previous record holder for this indicator, Ronald Reagan, won his first presidential election at 69 years old.

The US presidential election is over, the winner is known. However, there is still a couple of months left before Donald Trump's full-fledged entry into office. On November 10, the first step was taken to transfer power from Barack Obama to his successor.

On Thursday, November 10, I received Donald Trump at the White House. Despite the fact that during the election campaign the incumbent president openly campaigned for his Democratic colleague Hillary Clinton, Obama did not break the tradition according to which the incumbent US leader conducts a personal conversation with his successor. At the same time, the wives of politicians, Melania Trump and Michelle Obama, also meet in the White House.

Trump's team is already actively recruiting personnel for leading government posts. Information is leaking to the press about who can take high positions, but officially everything is kept secret for now. Hasty Russian curiosity about this has already been noted.

Trump, since the announcement of the results of the vote, already has the right to receive information from intelligence agencies about secret government operations or current secret information about foreign leaders.

The winner of the presidential election is known, but formally the electoral vote is yet to come. They will vote in accordance with the results of elections in each of the states. The procedure will take place on December 19, and the results will be announced on January 6, 2017 in the Senate.

For now, Barack Obama will continue to fly on board presidential airliners. Air Force One will go into the possession of Donald Trump and his associates next year, on January 20.

The official handover of the keys to the White House will take place on the day of the inauguration of the new US president on January 20. However, Barack Obama and his family will start moving out earlier - before Trump moves in, the building will be renovated and the furniture will be replaced. The Obamas plan to stay in Washington until 2018, when both daughters graduate from high school.

The United States will also be able to dispose of nuclear weapons after its inauguration on January 20. Then he will become the owner of a briefcase with codes to activate the nuclear arsenal. The suitcase is handcuffed to the wrist of one of the officers of the US armed forces, who must always be near the president.

A full transfer of power is carried out at the time of the inauguration of the new president, which will take place on January 20 at 12 noon local time. Traditionally, this ceremony takes place in front of the Capitol building in Washington. For the 9th President of the United States, William Harrison, the inauguration in the open air became fatal: a two-hour speech in the cold wind turned into a cold, which developed into pneumonia due to overwork. A month after taking the oath, Harrison died.

After Donald Trump was elected president, Buzzfeed jokingly began to reassure its readers by running a timer until the next US presidential election. The date of the new voting is indeed already known - November 3, 2020. Donald Trump has the right to run again. True, in 2020 he will be 74 years old. At the same time, 70-year-old Trump will already become the oldest president in US history at the time of his first inauguration. The previous record holder for this indicator, Ronald Reagan, won his first presidential election at 69 years old.

Foreign media - about the impeachment of the US President

The House of Representatives has impeached US President Donald Trump, accusing him of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. Mr. Trump became the third president in the history of the country who faced this procedure. What foreign media wrote about this is in the Kommersant selection.

Trump is now likely to be the first president to be impeached and then run for new elections. Obviously, the Democrats are hoping that the mark of impeachment will work against him. But Trump will present the partisan vote as illegitimate and his Senate acquittal as evidence. He will also say that the Democrats and the media were unable to accept his 2016 victory and all this time they tried to change the verdict of the voters. And he will be right.

It is not yet possible to predict how all these arguments will eventually work.

Millions of Republicans who disliked Trump's character and behavior are nonetheless rejecting an attempt to remove him months before a new election.

Removing Trump from office outside of elections will not end Trumpism or reduce political polarization. The Trump electorate will see this as a coup orchestrated by the elites, and Trump himself will not quietly leave. A more rational opposition would understand this, accept the 2016 victory, and focus on defeating them at the polls. And the case with Ukraine could become part of the charge in the electoral process. Instead, the Democrats want to annul the results of the 2016 vote, preempting the 2020 election. And if Trump wins this election, the recklessness of this impeachment will be the main reason for this outcome.

Trump's impeachment only confirms the danger of such behavior as a spontaneous purchase in the pre-holiday turmoil.

Despite the evidence presented, which is both incomplete and controversial, Congressional leaders are tied to a promise they made to Democratic voters to impeach Trump before Christmas.

There are certain reasons that make people make spontaneous purchases or arrange spontaneous impeachments. A few years ago, professors (George Washington University.- "b") Juliet Zhu and Grace Che completed a study on spontaneous shopping and concluded that this phenomenon is enhanced when shoppers are "surrounded by chaos" that "apparently affects their ability to perform rational thinking tasks." In other words, pre-holiday crowds combined with Christmas songs can mean that there is a high risk that you will not make the best purchase.

Using office to pressure a foreign leader into doing something that could at least be seen as politically advantageous to him is a serious charge. But for a punishment as severe as suspension from office, there must be undeniable evidence of egregious behavior and a lengthy investigation process, not a quick list of accusations from the party in control of the process.

It can be expected that impeachments will occur more and more frequently until they become the norm.

When will it end? It is quite possible that this time the process will turn against the Democrats, as it did with the Republicans in 1998, when their partisan pursuit of Mr. Clinton led to heavy losses in the midterm elections.

If a small but vital core of voters in the middle see the impeachment of Mr. Trump as a one-party act and punish the Democrats next year, it could turn out that both parties will be punished severely enough to oppose such a quick impeachment in the future...

But perhaps hoping for a lasting truce is wishful thinking. It is much more likely that both sides will continue to view impeachment as pursuing politics by other means. A few years ago, a Latin American acquaintance of mine, watching politics sink into hyperpartisanship, accountability declining, corruption, malice and hypocrisy growing, wondered if the most powerful country in the world was beginning to resemble one of those banana republics he was familiar with. . The "bananization" of America, he suggested, was already well under way. Judging by the current state of politics, he was not so far from the truth.

If the Democrats wanted to irritate Mr. Trump, who is notorious for his touchiness, they succeeded quite well.

They distracted him from his official duties (although this was always easy) and, perhaps, hurt his boundless pride.

But all this does not change the most important political fact. As Abraham Lincoln once remarked, “Public opinion is everything. If it is on your side, everything will work out. If not, nothing will come of it." For now - in stark contrast to the Watergate scandal and the near-impeachment of Richard Nixon - public opinion does not appear to have shifted enough against Mr. Trump to make his position hopeless. His supporters have largely remained loyal to him, believing that either the entire impeachment process is a political stunt, or it doesn't matter anyway, or the charges are, so to speak, fabricated.

The impeachment will drag on, irritating and embarrassing Mr. Trump, and perhaps change public opinion a bit.

But if the public does not take the impeachment seriously - as it seems to be - it will be the Democrats who will find themselves in the dock in the court of public opinion.

Trump jeopardized America's national security interests for his own benefit and abused his office to rig upcoming elections and therefore undermine the US democratic process. The accusations, however, have no factual basis.

In addition, he banned government employees from testifying to the Congressional Intelligence Committee, which was investigating the allegations against Trump. This is something new in US history, so the second article of impeachment - obstructing the work of the US Congress - is justified. Because the White House wanted to prevent, and in some cases even prevented, Congress from fulfilling its functions as an instance that controls the actions of the government, as provided for by the Constitution.

In fact, Trump is exactly the type of president that the American Founding Fathers have always warned about, which is why they included the possibility of impeachment in the Constitution in the first place. They wanted to prevent the enormous power that the president wields from being used to skew democratic competition in favor of the incumbent.

The impeachment trial against Donald Trump is likely to end in the same way as previous attempts to remove the American president: the defeat of those who made this attempt. In the case of Trump, this will be ensured by a Republican majority in the Senate, which will remain loyal to its man in the White House, no matter how unpredictable he may be. Trump could have reacted quite calmly - if his name had not been Trump.

An egoist like him simply cannot remain silent out of vanity until the accusation is dismissed by the Senate.

And what president would then miss the opportunity to rally his own ranks and strike at the weak points of the enemy?

And Trump does it in a way that truly deserves to be recognized as unique. Violation of the Constitution, attempted coup, lies, obstruction of justice, "open war against democracy" - if what the President accuses the Democrats, namely Nancy Pelosi, were true, America would be in the worst crisis since the Civil War. Such statements and formulations are usually used by authoritarian rulers to justify the seizure of power.

Democrats in the fight against Trump also made dubious claims. But they adhere to the procedure provided for by the Constitution, during which all allegations are checked. Trump's six-page message, to Pelosi, Senate Republicans, his supporters across the country, and Americans living 100 years from now, dwarfs everything Trump has done so far in its calculated scope. His business model is a spiral: a violent president, elected by violent citizens and wanting to be re-elected, cannot be pacified - he must always be ahead. Probably, this desire will not weaken during the second term. Trump knows his retaliatory strike shows that what he calls a coup attempt increases rather than diminishes his chances of achieving his greatest goal.

Standing earlier on the White House lawn, Donald Trump described impeachment as "a dirty, vile, disgusting word." Now that the House of Representatives has impeached him, the word will forever be associated with his presidency.

The results of the impeachment represent a rare standoff against a man who boasted that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and get away with it.

As a real estate broker, Trump inherited a large fortune from his father, filed for bankruptcy six times, and systematically evaded taxes. In doing so, he successfully dubbed himself a self-made business genius. As a presidential candidate, he insulted the family of a dead soldier, accused a judge of bias on the grounds that the judge was of Mexican descent, and was caught boasting about how he groped women. And yet he won the election.

Already president, he pandered to authoritarians like Vladimir Putin, in a relationship that alarmed US intelligence agencies. He was convicted of paying money to a porn star so that she would not testify. The Mueller report presented ten credible examples of how he obstructed justice. But he survived.

Public opinion is split on the issue of impeachment, and this split reflects the partisan vote in Congress. Trump's advantage in this situation is that he can hold onto power tightly. There is no chance the Senate will vote to remove him when it holds its trial in January. And he has a very clear chance of winning the 2020 election.

Donald Trump has become the third president in US history to be impeached. But what could be more remarkable is that this 73-year-old Republican will be the first president in history to seek re-election after such an impressive rebuke from Congress.

And while Trump's approval ratings have held steady even as the impeachment inquiry began in September, the political uproar surrounding the attempt to remove the president ahead of a new election has deeply divided public opinion and, according to experts, is unclear where it will lead.

In a flood of negative coverage of the president that continues to sow discord, Trump is acting out of the ordinary and continuing his aggressive rhetoric that has marked his rule since 2017.